Exposure to Floods, Climate Change, and Poverty in Vietnam
With 70 percent of its population living in coastal areas and low-lying deltas, Vietnam is exposed to many natural hazards, including river and coastal flooding. These hazards are expected to worsen due to climate change, and the impacts of any cha...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2016
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/07/26597551/exposure-floods-climate-change-poverty-vietnam http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24846 |
| Summary: | With 70 percent of its population living
in coastal areas and low-lying deltas, Vietnam is exposed to
many natural hazards, including river and coastal flooding.
These hazards are expected to worsen due to climate change,
and the impacts of any change in hazard magnitude may be
particularly acute in this region. This paper examines the
exposure of the population and poor people in particular to
current and future flooding at the country level, using new
high-resolution flood hazard maps and spatial socioeconomic
data. The paper also examines flood exposure and poverty at
the local level within Ho Chi Minh City. The national-level
analysis finds that a third (33 percent) of today’s
population is already exposed to a flood, which occurs once
every 25 years, assuming no protection. For the same return
period flood under current socioeconomic conditions, climate
change may increase the number exposed to 38 to 46 percent
of the population. Climate change impacts can make frequent
events as important as rare ones in terms of exposure: for
instance, the estimates suggest a 25-year flood under future
conditions can expose more people than a 200-year flood
under current conditions. Although poor districts are not
found to be more exposed to floods at the national level,
the city-level analysis of Ho Chi Minh City provides
evidence that slum areas are more exposed than other parts
of the city. The results of this paper show the benefits of
investing today in flood risk management, and can provide
guidance as to where future investments may be targeted.
Furthermore, while the main strategy in Vietnam today to
manage flood risk is to reduce exposure, the increase in
exposure estimated in this paper provides support that
alternative strategies to reduce vulnerability (such as
financing for floor-raising) or improve the ability-to-adapt
of households (such as social safety nets) may warrant
increased attention. |
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