Global Health Workforce Labor Market Projections for 2030
In low- and middle-income countries, scaling essential health interventions to achieve health development targets is constrained by the lack of skilled health professionals to deliver services. This paper takes a labor market approach to project fu...
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2016
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/08/26680686/global-health-workforce-labor-market-projections-2030 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25035 |
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okr-10986-250352021-04-23T14:04:28Z Global Health Workforce Labor Market Projections for 2030 Liua, Jenny X Goryakin, Yevgeniy Maeda, Akiko Bruckner, Tim Scheffler, Richard labor misallocation health workforce global health In low- and middle-income countries, scaling essential health interventions to achieve health development targets is constrained by the lack of skilled health professionals to deliver services. This paper takes a labor market approach to project future health workforce demand based on an economic model that projects economic growth, demographics, and health coverage, and using health workforce data (1990-2013) for 165 countries from the World Health Organization's Global Health Observatory. The demand projections are compared with the projected growth in health worker supply and health worker "needs" as estimated by the World Health Organization to achieve essential health coverage. The model predicts that by 2030 global demand for health workers will rise to 80 million workers, double the current (2013) stock of health workers. The supply of health workers is expected to reach 65 million over the same period, resulting in a worldwide shortage of 15 million health workers. Growth in the demand for health workers will be highest among upper-middle-income countries, driven by economic growth and population growth and aging, resulting in the largest predicted shortages, which may fuel global competition for skilled health workers. Middle-income countries will face workforce shortages because their demand will exceed supply. By contrast, low-income countries will face low growth in demand and supply, but they will face workforce shortages because their needs will exceed supply and demand. In many low-income countries, demand may stay below projected supply, leading to the paradoxical phenomenon of unemployed ("surplus") health workers in those countries facing acute "needs-based" shortages. 2016-09-12T18:20:07Z 2016-09-12T18:20:07Z 2016-08 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/08/26680686/global-health-workforce-labor-market-projections-2030 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25035 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7790 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English en_US |
| topic |
labor misallocation health workforce global health |
| spellingShingle |
labor misallocation health workforce global health Liua, Jenny X Goryakin, Yevgeniy Maeda, Akiko Bruckner, Tim Scheffler, Richard Global Health Workforce Labor Market Projections for 2030 |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7790 |
| description |
In low- and middle-income countries,
scaling essential health interventions to achieve health
development targets is constrained by the lack of skilled
health professionals to deliver services. This paper takes a
labor market approach to project future health workforce
demand based on an economic model that projects economic
growth, demographics, and health coverage, and using health
workforce data (1990-2013) for 165 countries from the World
Health Organization's Global Health Observatory. The
demand projections are compared with the projected growth in
health worker supply and health worker "needs" as
estimated by the World Health Organization to achieve
essential health coverage. The model predicts that by 2030
global demand for health workers will rise to 80 million
workers, double the current (2013) stock of health workers.
The supply of health workers is expected to reach 65 million
over the same period, resulting in a worldwide shortage of
15 million health workers. Growth in the demand for health
workers will be highest among upper-middle-income countries,
driven by economic growth and population growth and aging,
resulting in the largest predicted shortages, which may fuel
global competition for skilled health workers. Middle-income
countries will face workforce shortages because their demand
will exceed supply. By contrast, low-income countries will
face low growth in demand and supply, but they will face
workforce shortages because their needs will exceed supply
and demand. In many low-income countries, demand may stay
below projected supply, leading to the paradoxical
phenomenon of unemployed ("surplus") health
workers in those countries facing acute
"needs-based" shortages. |
| format |
Working Paper |
| author |
Liua, Jenny X Goryakin, Yevgeniy Maeda, Akiko Bruckner, Tim Scheffler, Richard |
| author_facet |
Liua, Jenny X Goryakin, Yevgeniy Maeda, Akiko Bruckner, Tim Scheffler, Richard |
| author_sort |
Liua, Jenny X |
| title |
Global Health Workforce Labor Market Projections for 2030 |
| title_short |
Global Health Workforce Labor Market Projections for 2030 |
| title_full |
Global Health Workforce Labor Market Projections for 2030 |
| title_fullStr |
Global Health Workforce Labor Market Projections for 2030 |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Global Health Workforce Labor Market Projections for 2030 |
| title_sort |
global health workforce labor market projections for 2030 |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2016 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/08/26680686/global-health-workforce-labor-market-projections-2030 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25035 |
| _version_ |
1764458199596924928 |