Predicting Project Outcomes : A Simple Methodology for Predictions Based on Project Ratings

The downgrading of projects at the closing from moderately satisfactory to moderately unsatisfactory has been a persistent problem in the World Bank and a particular problem in the World Bank's East Asia and Pacific region since 2012. Through...

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Main Authors:	Blanc, Marc, Esmail, Talib, Mascarell, Caroline, Rodriguez, Rukshan
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2016
Subjects:	prediction model development achievement outcomes
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/08/26718952/predicting-project-outcomes-simple-methodology-predictions-based-project-ratings http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25045

id	okr-10986-25045
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-250452021-04-23T14:04:28Z Predicting Project Outcomes : A Simple Methodology for Predictions Based on Project Ratings Blanc, Marc Esmail, Talib Mascarell, Caroline Rodriguez, Rukshan prediction model development achievement outcomes The downgrading of projects at the closing from moderately satisfactory to moderately unsatisfactory has been a persistent problem in the World Bank and a particular problem in the World Bank's East Asia and Pacific region since 2012. Through analysis of the projects that exited the East Asia and Pacific region's portfolio in fiscal years 2012 and 2013, this paper derives a prediction model based on ratings for implementation progress and achievement of development objectives during project supervision. The model, used in combination with other indicators of project progress toward outcomes, appears to improve on existing methods for assessing the downgrade risk. 2016-09-12T22:02:16Z 2016-09-12T22:02:16Z 2016-08 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/08/26718952/predicting-project-outcomes-simple-methodology-predictions-based-project-ratings http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25045 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7800 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper East Asia and Pacific East Asia Oceania
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English en_US
topic	prediction model development achievement outcomes
spellingShingle	prediction model development achievement outcomes Blanc, Marc Esmail, Talib Mascarell, Caroline Rodriguez, Rukshan Predicting Project Outcomes : A Simple Methodology for Predictions Based on Project Ratings
geographic_facet	East Asia and Pacific East Asia Oceania
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7800
description	The downgrading of projects at the closing from moderately satisfactory to moderately unsatisfactory has been a persistent problem in the World Bank and a particular problem in the World Bank's East Asia and Pacific region since 2012. Through analysis of the projects that exited the East Asia and Pacific region's portfolio in fiscal years 2012 and 2013, this paper derives a prediction model based on ratings for implementation progress and achievement of development objectives during project supervision. The model, used in combination with other indicators of project progress toward outcomes, appears to improve on existing methods for assessing the downgrade risk.
format	Working Paper
author	Blanc, Marc Esmail, Talib Mascarell, Caroline Rodriguez, Rukshan
author_facet	Blanc, Marc Esmail, Talib Mascarell, Caroline Rodriguez, Rukshan
author_sort	Blanc, Marc
title	Predicting Project Outcomes : A Simple Methodology for Predictions Based on Project Ratings
title_short	Predicting Project Outcomes : A Simple Methodology for Predictions Based on Project Ratings
title_full	Predicting Project Outcomes : A Simple Methodology for Predictions Based on Project Ratings
title_fullStr	Predicting Project Outcomes : A Simple Methodology for Predictions Based on Project Ratings
title_full_unstemmed	Predicting Project Outcomes : A Simple Methodology for Predictions Based on Project Ratings
title_sort	predicting project outcomes : a simple methodology for predictions based on project ratings
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2016
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/08/26718952/predicting-project-outcomes-simple-methodology-predictions-based-project-ratings http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25045
_version_	1764458225918279680

Predicting Project Outcomes : A Simple Methodology for Predictions Based on Project Ratings

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