Afghanistan Development Update, October 2016
Security and development remain inextricably linked in Afghanistan, with the poor security environment continuing to exert a significant constraint on confidence, investment, and growth. As a result, in 2015, the economy grew at only 0.8 percent. I...
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| Format: | Report |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2016
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/988271478580976672/Afghanistan-economic-update http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25350 |
| Summary: | Security and development remain
inextricably linked in Afghanistan, with the poor security
environment continuing to exert a significant constraint on
confidence, investment, and growth. As a result, in 2015,
the economy grew at only 0.8 percent. In addition to the
security situation, adverse weather conditions also
constrained growth, contributing to a decline in
agricultural production of 5.7 percent in 2015. Available
data for the first half of 2016 indicate ongoing low levels
of investment, with agricultural production expected to
remain poor due to crop diseases and pests. Thus, in 2016,
the growth rate is expected to reach only 1.2 percent,
despite progress with a number of important initiatives that
are expected to have a positive impact on Afghanistan’s
economic development, including Afghanistan’s accession to
the World Trade Organization and the opening of the Chabahar
port in Iran. With the economic growth rate significantly
lower than the population growth rate, it is expected that
poverty will have increased in 2015 and that it is likely to
continue to increase throughout 2016. In the medium-term
future, economic growth is expected to gradually accelerate,
increasing from 1.8 percent in 2017 to 3.6 percent in 2019.
However, stronger growth in out-years is predicated on
improvements in security, political stability, reform
progress, and continued high levels of aid. |
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