Vulnerability to Drought and Food Price Shocks : Evidence from Ethiopia
Although the measurement and determinants of poverty have been widely studied, vulnerability, or the threat of future poverty, has been more difficult to investigate due to data paucity. This paper combines nationally representative household data...
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| Format: | Working Paper |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2017
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/959471482167974723/Vulnerability-to-drought-and-food-price-shocks-evidence-from-Ethiopia http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25819 |
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okr-10986-258192021-06-08T14:42:46Z Vulnerability to Drought and Food Price Shocks : Evidence from Ethiopia Vargas Hill, Ruth Porter, Catherine vulnerability poverty drought inflation climate change impacts price shocks natural disasters rainfall food prices food security Although the measurement and determinants of poverty have been widely studied, vulnerability, or the threat of future poverty, has been more difficult to investigate due to data paucity. This paper combines nationally representative household data with objective drought and price information to quantify the causes of vulnerability to poverty in Ethiopia. Previous estimates have relied on self-reported shocks and variation in outcomes within a survey, which is inadequate for shocks such as weather and prices that vary more across time than space. Historical distributions of climate and price shocks in each district were used to simulate the probable distribution of future consumption for individual households; these were then used to quantify vulnerability to poverty. The analysis shows that many Ethiopians are unable to protect their consumption against lack of rainfall and sudden increases in food prices. A moderate drought causes a 9 percent reduction in consumption for many rural households, and high inflation causes a 14 percent reduction in the consumption of uneducated households in urban areas. Vulnerability of rural households is considerably higher than that of urban households, despite realized poverty rates being fairly similar. This finding reflects that the household survey in 2011 was conducted during a year of good rainfall but rapid food price inflation. The results highlight the need for caution in using a snapshot of poverty to target programs, as underlying rates of vulnerability can be quite different from the poverty rate captured at one point in time. The results also suggest that significant welfare gains can be made from risk management in both rural and urban areas. 2017-01-05T22:50:35Z 2017-01-05T22:50:35Z 2016-12 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/959471482167974723/Vulnerability-to-drought-and-food-price-shocks-evidence-from-Ethiopia http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25819 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7920 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Africa Ethiopia |
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Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English en_US |
| topic |
vulnerability poverty drought inflation climate change impacts price shocks natural disasters rainfall food prices food security |
| spellingShingle |
vulnerability poverty drought inflation climate change impacts price shocks natural disasters rainfall food prices food security Vargas Hill, Ruth Porter, Catherine Vulnerability to Drought and Food Price Shocks : Evidence from Ethiopia |
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Africa Ethiopia |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7920 |
| description |
Although the measurement and
determinants of poverty have been widely studied,
vulnerability, or the threat of future poverty, has been
more difficult to investigate due to data paucity. This
paper combines nationally representative household data with
objective drought and price information to quantify the
causes of vulnerability to poverty in Ethiopia. Previous
estimates have relied on self-reported shocks and variation
in outcomes within a survey, which is inadequate for shocks
such as weather and prices that vary more across time than
space. Historical distributions of climate and price shocks
in each district were used to simulate the probable
distribution of future consumption for individual
households; these were then used to quantify vulnerability
to poverty. The analysis shows that many Ethiopians are
unable to protect their consumption against lack of rainfall
and sudden increases in food prices. A moderate drought
causes a 9 percent reduction in consumption for many rural
households, and high inflation causes a 14 percent reduction
in the consumption of uneducated households in urban areas.
Vulnerability of rural households is considerably higher
than that of urban households, despite realized poverty
rates being fairly similar. This finding reflects that the
household survey in 2011 was conducted during a year of good
rainfall but rapid food price inflation. The results
highlight the need for caution in using a snapshot of
poverty to target programs, as underlying rates of
vulnerability can be quite different from the poverty rate
captured at one point in time. The results also suggest that
significant welfare gains can be made from risk management
in both rural and urban areas. |
| format |
Working Paper |
| author |
Vargas Hill, Ruth Porter, Catherine |
| author_facet |
Vargas Hill, Ruth Porter, Catherine |
| author_sort |
Vargas Hill, Ruth |
| title |
Vulnerability to Drought and Food Price Shocks : Evidence from Ethiopia |
| title_short |
Vulnerability to Drought and Food Price Shocks : Evidence from Ethiopia |
| title_full |
Vulnerability to Drought and Food Price Shocks : Evidence from Ethiopia |
| title_fullStr |
Vulnerability to Drought and Food Price Shocks : Evidence from Ethiopia |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Vulnerability to Drought and Food Price Shocks : Evidence from Ethiopia |
| title_sort |
vulnerability to drought and food price shocks : evidence from ethiopia |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2017 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/959471482167974723/Vulnerability-to-drought-and-food-price-shocks-evidence-from-Ethiopia http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25819 |
| _version_ |
1764460229936807936 |