Recovery from Conflict : Lessons of Success
This paper studies long-term impacts of violent conflict, to provide insights into the costs of conflict and policies to prevent conflict relapse. The findings link evidence on the contemporaneous effects of conflict with its persistent impact, esp...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2017
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/832901487083457988/Recovery-from-conflict-lessons-of-success http://hdl.handle.net/10986/26137 |
| Summary: | This paper studies long-term impacts of
violent conflict, to provide insights into the costs of
conflict and policies to prevent conflict relapse. The
findings link evidence on the contemporaneous effects of
conflict with its persistent impact, especially by combining
multiple data sources such as night lights, indicators of
political exclusion, and nutrition. There is a strong level
effect on output arising from the intensity of conflict,
which, contrary to perceptions of post-conflict booms, on
average is not reversed by subsequent more rapid growth. The
paper investigates two possible channels that make conflict
persistent: refugee flows and investment. Both channels
display wide variation across recovery episodes, and are
capable of large surges, which can in some cases generate
rapid recoveries. Where recoveries lack buoyancy --which is
the case for many post-conflict episodes -- deeper political
constraints appear to be at work, which may ultimately
relate to the effectiveness of power sharing. Finally, to
highlight the need for more effective policies and knowledge
in this area, the paper shows that the human development
costs of conflict are huge, and can persist through a full
generation. Policy recommendations and pointers for future
research form the conclusion. |
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