Climate Change and Agriculture in South Asia : Alternative Trade Policy Options
There is increasing evidence suggesting that climate change will negatively impact agricultural production in South Asia. Decreased domestic production may make South Asian countries more dependent on imports. The extent to which South Asia will ne...
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2017
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/603231468307155370/Climate-change-and-agriculture-in-South-Asia-alternative-trade-policy-options http://hdl.handle.net/10986/26792 |
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okr-10986-26792 |
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oai_dc |
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Digital Repository |
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Foreign Institution |
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Digital Repositories |
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World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
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World Bank |
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English en_US |
| topic |
AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS AGRICULTURAL TRADE AGRICULTURAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION AGRICULTURE ALLOCATION ANNUAL GROWTH RATE ANTARCTICA APPAREL ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATION ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS AVERAGE TARIFF AVERAGE TARIFF LEVELS AVERAGE TARIFFS BENEFITS OF TRADE BILATERAL TRADE BIOMASS CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL GOOD CAPITAL STOCK CARBON CARBON DIOXIDE CARBON FIXATION CHANGES IN TRADE CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS CLIMATE CHANGES CLIMATE SCENARIOS CLIMATE SYSTEM CLIMATES CLOSED ECONOMY CO2 COAL COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES COMPETITIVENESS CONSTANT ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION CONSTANT ELASTICITY OF TRANSFORMATION CONSUMERS CONSUMPTION LEVELS COUNTRY OF ORIGIN CURRENT ACCOUNT DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DOMESTIC DEMAND DOMESTIC MARKET DOMESTIC PRODUCTION ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR ECONOMIC DISTORTIONS ECONOMIC IMPACT ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMIC IMPACTS ECONOMIC MODEL ECONOMIC MODELS ECONOMIC RELATIONS ECONOMIC SIZE ELASTICITY ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION ELASTICITY OF SUPPLY EMISSION EMISSION SCENARIOS EMISSIONS EMISSIONS SCENARIOS ENERGY EFFICIENCY ENERGY PRICE EQUILIBRIUM EVAPOTRANSPIRATION EXCHANGE RATE EXPORT MARKET EXPORT MARKETS EXPORT POLICIES EXPORT VALUE EXPORTERS EXTREME EVENTS EXTREME VALUES FACTOR ENDOWMENTS FACTOR MARKETS FACTOR PRICE FATS FERTILIZATION FIXED COSTS FOOD EXPORTS FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS FOREIGN MARKETS FORESTRY FOSSIL FUELS FREE TRADE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT FREE TRADE AREA FULL EMPLOYMENT FULL LIBERALIZATION FUTURE RESEARCH GCM GDP GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL GHG GHGS GLOBAL COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM GLOBAL TRADE GRAVITY MODEL GREEN HOUSE GAS GREENHOUSE GREENHOUSE GAS HIGH TARIFFS HYDROLOGY IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPORT DUTIES IMPORT DUTY IMPORT MARKETS IMPORT TARIFFS IMPORT VALUE IMPORTS INCOME INELASTIC DEMAND INTERMEDIATE GOODS INTERMEDIATE INPUTS INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTRAREGIONAL TRADE INVESTMENT DECISIONS IPCC LABOR SUPPLY LAND ALLOCATION DECISIONS LAND USE MARGINAL COSTS MARGINAL PRODUCTIVITY METEOROLOGY MULTILATERAL TRADE MULTILATERAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION NATIONAL INCOME NATURAL GAS NATURAL RESOURCES NEGATIVE IMPACT NET EXPORTER NET EXPORTERS NET EXPORTS NON-TARIFF BARRIERS OILS PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA INCOME PERFECT COMPETITION PHOTOSYNTHESIS POLICY ANALYSIS POLICY MAKERS POLICY SCENARIOS PORTFOLIO PRECIPITATION PREFERENTIAL ACCESS PRICE ELASTICITY PRICE INCREASES PRICE PROJECTIONS PRODUCTION FUNCTION PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PROTECTION RATES PROTECTIONIST PROTEINS RAINFALL RATES OF PROTECTION REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL GDP REAL INCOME REGIONAL INTEGRATION REGIONAL TRADE RELATIVE PRICE RELATIVE PRICES RISK AVERSION SAFETY NETS SOLAR RADIATION SPECIALIZATION SUBSTITUTION SUPPLY SIDE TARIFF BARRIERS TARIFF RATE TARIFF RATE QUOTAS TARIFF RATES TARIFF REDUCTIONS TEMPERATURE TERMS OF TRADE TERMS OF TRADE EFFECTS TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TRADE AGREEMENT TRADE BALANCE TRADE BALANCES TRADE BARRIERS TRADE BLOCKS TRADE COSTS TRADE FLOWS TRADE LIBERALIZATION TRADE LOSSES TRADE MODELS TRADE PARTNER TRADE PARTNERS TRADE PATTERNS TRADE POLICIES TRADE POLICY TRADE POLICY ANALYSIS TRADE REGIME TRADE RESTRICTIONS TRADE VALUE TRADING PARTNERS TROPICS UNCERTAINTIES UNEMPLOYMENT UNILATERAL TRADE UNILATERAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION UNSKILLED LABOR UTILITY FUNCTIONS VALUE ADDED WAGE FLEXIBILITY WAGE GAP WAGES WELFARE ANALYSIS WORLD MARKETS WORLD PRICES WORLD TRADE |
| spellingShingle |
AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS AGRICULTURAL TRADE AGRICULTURAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION AGRICULTURE ALLOCATION ANNUAL GROWTH RATE ANTARCTICA APPAREL ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATION ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS AVERAGE TARIFF AVERAGE TARIFF LEVELS AVERAGE TARIFFS BENEFITS OF TRADE BILATERAL TRADE BIOMASS CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL GOOD CAPITAL STOCK CARBON CARBON DIOXIDE CARBON FIXATION CHANGES IN TRADE CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS CLIMATE CHANGES CLIMATE SCENARIOS CLIMATE SYSTEM CLIMATES CLOSED ECONOMY CO2 COAL COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES COMPETITIVENESS CONSTANT ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION CONSTANT ELASTICITY OF TRANSFORMATION CONSUMERS CONSUMPTION LEVELS COUNTRY OF ORIGIN CURRENT ACCOUNT DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DOMESTIC DEMAND DOMESTIC MARKET DOMESTIC PRODUCTION ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR ECONOMIC DISTORTIONS ECONOMIC IMPACT ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMIC IMPACTS ECONOMIC MODEL ECONOMIC MODELS ECONOMIC RELATIONS ECONOMIC SIZE ELASTICITY ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION ELASTICITY OF SUPPLY EMISSION EMISSION SCENARIOS EMISSIONS EMISSIONS SCENARIOS ENERGY EFFICIENCY ENERGY PRICE EQUILIBRIUM EVAPOTRANSPIRATION EXCHANGE RATE EXPORT MARKET EXPORT MARKETS EXPORT POLICIES EXPORT VALUE EXPORTERS EXTREME EVENTS EXTREME VALUES FACTOR ENDOWMENTS FACTOR MARKETS FACTOR PRICE FATS FERTILIZATION FIXED COSTS FOOD EXPORTS FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS FOREIGN MARKETS FORESTRY FOSSIL FUELS FREE TRADE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT FREE TRADE AREA FULL EMPLOYMENT FULL LIBERALIZATION FUTURE RESEARCH GCM GDP GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL GHG GHGS GLOBAL COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM GLOBAL TRADE GRAVITY MODEL GREEN HOUSE GAS GREENHOUSE GREENHOUSE GAS HIGH TARIFFS HYDROLOGY IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPORT DUTIES IMPORT DUTY IMPORT MARKETS IMPORT TARIFFS IMPORT VALUE IMPORTS INCOME INELASTIC DEMAND INTERMEDIATE GOODS INTERMEDIATE INPUTS INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTRAREGIONAL TRADE INVESTMENT DECISIONS IPCC LABOR SUPPLY LAND ALLOCATION DECISIONS LAND USE MARGINAL COSTS MARGINAL PRODUCTIVITY METEOROLOGY MULTILATERAL TRADE MULTILATERAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION NATIONAL INCOME NATURAL GAS NATURAL RESOURCES NEGATIVE IMPACT NET EXPORTER NET EXPORTERS NET EXPORTS NON-TARIFF BARRIERS OILS PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA INCOME PERFECT COMPETITION PHOTOSYNTHESIS POLICY ANALYSIS POLICY MAKERS POLICY SCENARIOS PORTFOLIO PRECIPITATION PREFERENTIAL ACCESS PRICE ELASTICITY PRICE INCREASES PRICE PROJECTIONS PRODUCTION FUNCTION PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PROTECTION RATES PROTECTIONIST PROTEINS RAINFALL RATES OF PROTECTION REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL GDP REAL INCOME REGIONAL INTEGRATION REGIONAL TRADE RELATIVE PRICE RELATIVE PRICES RISK AVERSION SAFETY NETS SOLAR RADIATION SPECIALIZATION SUBSTITUTION SUPPLY SIDE TARIFF BARRIERS TARIFF RATE TARIFF RATE QUOTAS TARIFF RATES TARIFF REDUCTIONS TEMPERATURE TERMS OF TRADE TERMS OF TRADE EFFECTS TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TRADE AGREEMENT TRADE BALANCE TRADE BALANCES TRADE BARRIERS TRADE BLOCKS TRADE COSTS TRADE FLOWS TRADE LIBERALIZATION TRADE LOSSES TRADE MODELS TRADE PARTNER TRADE PARTNERS TRADE PATTERNS TRADE POLICIES TRADE POLICY TRADE POLICY ANALYSIS TRADE REGIME TRADE RESTRICTIONS TRADE VALUE TRADING PARTNERS TROPICS UNCERTAINTIES UNEMPLOYMENT UNILATERAL TRADE UNILATERAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION UNSKILLED LABOR UTILITY FUNCTIONS VALUE ADDED WAGE FLEXIBILITY WAGE GAP WAGES WELFARE ANALYSIS WORLD MARKETS WORLD PRICES WORLD TRADE Laborde, David Lakatos, Csilla Nelson, Gerald Robertson, Richard Thomas, Marcelle Yu, Winston Jansen, Hans G.P. Climate Change and Agriculture in South Asia : Alternative Trade Policy Options |
| geographic_facet |
South Asia South Asia |
| description |
There is increasing evidence suggesting
that climate change will negatively impact agricultural
production in South Asia. Decreased domestic production may
make South Asian countries more dependent on imports. The
extent to which South Asia will need to increase its imports
as a result of climate change will presumably depend on the
degree to which the latter will affect domestic output. The
effects of climate change on agriculture may well differ
substantially for individual South Asian countries and
indeed for regions within a given country which can be
approximated by food production units. This calls for an
analysis of climate change effects on trade flows under
alternative trade policy regimes both for agriculture and
non-agricultural sectors. The specific objectives of the
paper include the following: analyze the extent to which
agricultural production in South Asia and elsewhere in the
world may be affected by different scenarios regarding
climate change; analyze the extent to which changes in
domestic production in South Asia resulting from climate
change will lead to increased demand for imports by South
Asian countries; analyze the effects of increased import
demand in South Asia and changing exportable surpluses
elsewhere on world market prices of major agricultural
commodities consumed in South Asia; to the extent that South
Asian governments allow transmission of changes in world
market prices to domestic prices, analyze the potential
welfare effects of changes in the latter; analyze if, and to
what extent, worldwide trade liberalization and
implementation of South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) will
dampen the effects of climate change on domestic
agricultural prices in South Asia. In this context, the
report is organized as follows: chapter one gives
introduction. Chapter two describes the methodology used -
with particular attention to how different models and
modeling techniques are linked to produce an as accurate as
possible assessment based on state-of-the-art knowledge.
Chapter three provides an up-to-date analysis of trade flows
and policies, and production patterns for key food products
in South Asia to explain the context in which climate change
is taking place. Chapter four describes the climate change
scenarios and illustrates their consequences for crop yields
at a global level and for South Asia - and in particular
shows the vulnerability of the region to these changes.
Baseline design, simulations, and results are discussed in
chapter five. The final chapter six provides a short
summary, discusses the limitations of the analysis, and
derives suggestions and guidelines for future research. |
| format |
Working Paper |
| author |
Laborde, David Lakatos, Csilla Nelson, Gerald Robertson, Richard Thomas, Marcelle Yu, Winston Jansen, Hans G.P. |
| author_facet |
Laborde, David Lakatos, Csilla Nelson, Gerald Robertson, Richard Thomas, Marcelle Yu, Winston Jansen, Hans G.P. |
| author_sort |
Laborde, David |
| title |
Climate Change and Agriculture in South Asia : Alternative Trade Policy Options |
| title_short |
Climate Change and Agriculture in South Asia : Alternative Trade Policy Options |
| title_full |
Climate Change and Agriculture in South Asia : Alternative Trade Policy Options |
| title_fullStr |
Climate Change and Agriculture in South Asia : Alternative Trade Policy Options |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Climate Change and Agriculture in South Asia : Alternative Trade Policy Options |
| title_sort |
climate change and agriculture in south asia : alternative trade policy options |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2017 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/603231468307155370/Climate-change-and-agriculture-in-South-Asia-alternative-trade-policy-options http://hdl.handle.net/10986/26792 |
| _version_ |
1764462849629880320 |
| spelling |
okr-10986-267922021-04-23T14:04:38Z Climate Change and Agriculture in South Asia : Alternative Trade Policy Options Laborde, David Lakatos, Csilla Nelson, Gerald Robertson, Richard Thomas, Marcelle Yu, Winston Jansen, Hans G.P. AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS AGRICULTURAL TRADE AGRICULTURAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION AGRICULTURE ALLOCATION ANNUAL GROWTH RATE ANTARCTICA APPAREL ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATION ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS AVERAGE TARIFF AVERAGE TARIFF LEVELS AVERAGE TARIFFS BENEFITS OF TRADE BILATERAL TRADE BIOMASS CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL GOOD CAPITAL STOCK CARBON CARBON DIOXIDE CARBON FIXATION CHANGES IN TRADE CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS CLIMATE CHANGES CLIMATE SCENARIOS CLIMATE SYSTEM CLIMATES CLOSED ECONOMY CO2 COAL COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES COMPETITIVENESS CONSTANT ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION CONSTANT ELASTICITY OF TRANSFORMATION CONSUMERS CONSUMPTION LEVELS COUNTRY OF ORIGIN CURRENT ACCOUNT DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DOMESTIC DEMAND DOMESTIC MARKET DOMESTIC PRODUCTION ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR ECONOMIC DISTORTIONS ECONOMIC IMPACT ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMIC IMPACTS ECONOMIC MODEL ECONOMIC MODELS ECONOMIC RELATIONS ECONOMIC SIZE ELASTICITY ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION ELASTICITY OF SUPPLY EMISSION EMISSION SCENARIOS EMISSIONS EMISSIONS SCENARIOS ENERGY EFFICIENCY ENERGY PRICE EQUILIBRIUM EVAPOTRANSPIRATION EXCHANGE RATE EXPORT MARKET EXPORT MARKETS EXPORT POLICIES EXPORT VALUE EXPORTERS EXTREME EVENTS EXTREME VALUES FACTOR ENDOWMENTS FACTOR MARKETS FACTOR PRICE FATS FERTILIZATION FIXED COSTS FOOD EXPORTS FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS FOREIGN MARKETS FORESTRY FOSSIL FUELS FREE TRADE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT FREE TRADE AREA FULL EMPLOYMENT FULL LIBERALIZATION FUTURE RESEARCH GCM GDP GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL GHG GHGS GLOBAL COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM GLOBAL TRADE GRAVITY MODEL GREEN HOUSE GAS GREENHOUSE GREENHOUSE GAS HIGH TARIFFS HYDROLOGY IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPORT DUTIES IMPORT DUTY IMPORT MARKETS IMPORT TARIFFS IMPORT VALUE IMPORTS INCOME INELASTIC DEMAND INTERMEDIATE GOODS INTERMEDIATE INPUTS INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTRAREGIONAL TRADE INVESTMENT DECISIONS IPCC LABOR SUPPLY LAND ALLOCATION DECISIONS LAND USE MARGINAL COSTS MARGINAL PRODUCTIVITY METEOROLOGY MULTILATERAL TRADE MULTILATERAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION NATIONAL INCOME NATURAL GAS NATURAL RESOURCES NEGATIVE IMPACT NET EXPORTER NET EXPORTERS NET EXPORTS NON-TARIFF BARRIERS OILS PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA INCOME PERFECT COMPETITION PHOTOSYNTHESIS POLICY ANALYSIS POLICY MAKERS POLICY SCENARIOS PORTFOLIO PRECIPITATION PREFERENTIAL ACCESS PRICE ELASTICITY PRICE INCREASES PRICE PROJECTIONS PRODUCTION FUNCTION PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PROTECTION RATES PROTECTIONIST PROTEINS RAINFALL RATES OF PROTECTION REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL GDP REAL INCOME REGIONAL INTEGRATION REGIONAL TRADE RELATIVE PRICE RELATIVE PRICES RISK AVERSION SAFETY NETS SOLAR RADIATION SPECIALIZATION SUBSTITUTION SUPPLY SIDE TARIFF BARRIERS TARIFF RATE TARIFF RATE QUOTAS TARIFF RATES TARIFF REDUCTIONS TEMPERATURE TERMS OF TRADE TERMS OF TRADE EFFECTS TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TRADE AGREEMENT TRADE BALANCE TRADE BALANCES TRADE BARRIERS TRADE BLOCKS TRADE COSTS TRADE FLOWS TRADE LIBERALIZATION TRADE LOSSES TRADE MODELS TRADE PARTNER TRADE PARTNERS TRADE PATTERNS TRADE POLICIES TRADE POLICY TRADE POLICY ANALYSIS TRADE REGIME TRADE RESTRICTIONS TRADE VALUE TRADING PARTNERS TROPICS UNCERTAINTIES UNEMPLOYMENT UNILATERAL TRADE UNILATERAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION UNSKILLED LABOR UTILITY FUNCTIONS VALUE ADDED WAGE FLEXIBILITY WAGE GAP WAGES WELFARE ANALYSIS WORLD MARKETS WORLD PRICES WORLD TRADE There is increasing evidence suggesting that climate change will negatively impact agricultural production in South Asia. Decreased domestic production may make South Asian countries more dependent on imports. The extent to which South Asia will need to increase its imports as a result of climate change will presumably depend on the degree to which the latter will affect domestic output. The effects of climate change on agriculture may well differ substantially for individual South Asian countries and indeed for regions within a given country which can be approximated by food production units. This calls for an analysis of climate change effects on trade flows under alternative trade policy regimes both for agriculture and non-agricultural sectors. The specific objectives of the paper include the following: analyze the extent to which agricultural production in South Asia and elsewhere in the world may be affected by different scenarios regarding climate change; analyze the extent to which changes in domestic production in South Asia resulting from climate change will lead to increased demand for imports by South Asian countries; analyze the effects of increased import demand in South Asia and changing exportable surpluses elsewhere on world market prices of major agricultural commodities consumed in South Asia; to the extent that South Asian governments allow transmission of changes in world market prices to domestic prices, analyze the potential welfare effects of changes in the latter; analyze if, and to what extent, worldwide trade liberalization and implementation of South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) will dampen the effects of climate change on domestic agricultural prices in South Asia. In this context, the report is organized as follows: chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two describes the methodology used - with particular attention to how different models and modeling techniques are linked to produce an as accurate as possible assessment based on state-of-the-art knowledge. Chapter three provides an up-to-date analysis of trade flows and policies, and production patterns for key food products in South Asia to explain the context in which climate change is taking place. Chapter four describes the climate change scenarios and illustrates their consequences for crop yields at a global level and for South Asia - and in particular shows the vulnerability of the region to these changes. Baseline design, simulations, and results are discussed in chapter five. The final chapter six provides a short summary, discusses the limitations of the analysis, and derives suggestions and guidelines for future research. 2017-05-30T21:56:42Z 2017-05-30T21:56:42Z 2012 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/603231468307155370/Climate-change-and-agriculture-in-South-Asia-alternative-trade-policy-options http://hdl.handle.net/10986/26792 English en_US CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Working Paper Publications & Research South Asia South Asia |