Bangladesh Economic Update, September 2011
Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at 6.7 percent in FY11, continuing the upward trend in growth after declining during FY06-09. This strong performance can be repeated in FY12 if exports continue to grow and if garment exports benefit from the...
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Format: | Report |
Language: | English en_US |
Published: |
Washington, DC
2017
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/311341467998485567/Bangladesh-economic-update http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27075 |
Summary: | Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew
at 6.7 percent in FY11, continuing the upward trend in
growth after declining during FY06-09. This strong
performance can be repeated in FY12 if exports continue to
grow and if garment exports benefit from the agreement
reached during the recent India-Bangladesh Summit,
remittances continue to recover, and if investment is
boosted by improved infrastructure services particularly
power. Risks in the global economy can affect Bangladesh in
several ways. The standard and poor (S&P) downgrade of
US debt as well as the debt problems in the Euro Zone are
affecting the international markets and renewing fears of
another global slowdown. This time around, limited fiscal
and monetary space in developed countries increases the
chances of a protracted slowdown. If this slowdown occurs,
it can affect Bangladesh's balance of payments through
its impact on exports and remittances, put pressure on the
exchange rate, increase economic uncertainty, and, in turn,
weaken investment and growth. Domestic policies will also
affect Bangladesh's economic prospects. A slow pace of
reforms in the investment climate can affect domestic and
foreign investment, as can inadequacies in energy supply and
the poor quality of roads. The reversal of trade reforms as
well as weakening of the financial sector can also affect
export growth and investment. Expansionary macroeconomic
policies could increase risks on the current account and
make inflation management more difficult. Unlike in 2008,
Bangladesh has insufficient policy space to cushion the
impact of a second global slowdown through fiscal stimulus.
packages and monetary easing. Rapid growth in subsidies,
sustained high rate of growth of credit to the private
sector as well as recourse to monetary financing of the
fiscal deficit have led to the erosion of the fiscal and
monetary policy space. Much improved fiscal and monetary
discipline combined with stronger efforts to address the
energy and infrastructure deficits will be critical for
sustaining growth performance. Maintaining the
long-established tradition of sound macroeconomic management
will also be important. |
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