How Important are Spillovers from Major Emerging Markets?
The seven largest emerging market economies -- China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia, and Turkey -- constituted more than one-quarter of global output and more than half of global output growth during 2010-15. These emerging markets, call...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2017
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/786391496863791206/How-important-are-spillovers-from-major-emerging-markets http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27293 |
| Summary: | The seven largest emerging market
economies -- China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico,
Indonesia, and Turkey -- constituted more than one-quarter
of global output and more than half of global output growth
during 2010-15. These emerging markets, called EM7, are also
closely integrated with other countries, especially with
other emerging and frontier markets. Given their size and
integration, growth in EM7 could have significant
cross-border spillovers. The authors provide empirical
estimates of these spillovers using a Bayesian vector
autoregression model. They report three main results. First,
spillovers from EM7 are sizeable: a 1 percentage point
increase in EM7 growth is associated with a 0.9 percentage
point increase in growth in other emerging and frontier
markets and a 0.6 percentage point increase in world growth
at the end of three years. Second, sizeable as they are,
spillovers from EM7 are still smaller than those from G7
countries (Group of Seven of advanced economies).
Specifically, growth in other emerging and frontier markets,
and the global economy would increase by one-half to three
times more due to a similarly sized increase in G7 growth.
Third, among the EM7, spillovers from China are the largest
and permeate globally. |
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