But … What is the Poverty Rate Today? : Testing Poverty Nowcasting Methods in Latin America and the Caribbean

Poverty estimates usually lag behind two years, which makes it difficult to provide real-time poverty analysis to assess the impact of economic crisis and shocks among the less well-off, and subsequently limits policy responses. This paper takes ad...

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Main Authors:	Caruso, German, Lucchetti, Leonardo, Malasquez, Eduardo, Scot, Thiago, Castaneda, R. Andres
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2017
Subjects:	POVERTY POVERTY MEASUREMENT
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/898691497881586394/But-what-is-the-poverty-rate-today-testing-poverty-nowcasting-methods-in-Latin-America-and-the-Caribbean http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27304

id	okr-10986-27304
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-273042021-06-14T10:13:15Z But … What is the Poverty Rate Today? : Testing Poverty Nowcasting Methods in Latin America and the Caribbean Caruso, German Lucchetti, Leonardo Malasquez, Eduardo Scot, Thiago Castaneda, R. Andres POVERTY POVERTY MEASUREMENT Poverty estimates usually lag behind two years, which makes it difficult to provide real-time poverty analysis to assess the impact of economic crisis and shocks among the less well-off, and subsequently limits policy responses. This paper takes advantage of up-to-date average economic welfare indicators like the gross domestic product per capita and comprehensive harmonized micro data of more than 180 household surveys in 15 Latin American countries. The paper tests three commonly used poverty nowcasting methods and ranks their performance by comparing country-specific and regional poverty nowcasts with actual poverty estimates for 2003–14 period. The validation results show that the two bottom-up approaches, which simulate the performance of each agent in the economy to nowcast overall poverty, perform relatively better than the top-down approach, which uses welfare estimates to explain the performance of poverty at an aggregate level over time. The results are robust to additional sensitivity and robustness tests. 2017-06-21T20:17:28Z 2017-06-21T20:17:28Z 2017-06-01 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/898691497881586394/But-what-is-the-poverty-rate-today-testing-poverty-nowcasting-methods-in-Latin-America-and-the-Caribbean http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27304 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8104 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Latin America & Caribbean Caribbean Latin America
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English en_US
topic	POVERTY POVERTY MEASUREMENT
spellingShingle	POVERTY POVERTY MEASUREMENT Caruso, German Lucchetti, Leonardo Malasquez, Eduardo Scot, Thiago Castaneda, R. Andres But … What is the Poverty Rate Today? : Testing Poverty Nowcasting Methods in Latin America and the Caribbean
geographic_facet	Latin America & Caribbean Caribbean Latin America
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8104
description	Poverty estimates usually lag behind two years, which makes it difficult to provide real-time poverty analysis to assess the impact of economic crisis and shocks among the less well-off, and subsequently limits policy responses. This paper takes advantage of up-to-date average economic welfare indicators like the gross domestic product per capita and comprehensive harmonized micro data of more than 180 household surveys in 15 Latin American countries. The paper tests three commonly used poverty nowcasting methods and ranks their performance by comparing country-specific and regional poverty nowcasts with actual poverty estimates for 2003–14 period. The validation results show that the two bottom-up approaches, which simulate the performance of each agent in the economy to nowcast overall poverty, perform relatively better than the top-down approach, which uses welfare estimates to explain the performance of poverty at an aggregate level over time. The results are robust to additional sensitivity and robustness tests.
format	Working Paper
author	Caruso, German Lucchetti, Leonardo Malasquez, Eduardo Scot, Thiago Castaneda, R. Andres
author_facet	Caruso, German Lucchetti, Leonardo Malasquez, Eduardo Scot, Thiago Castaneda, R. Andres
author_sort	Caruso, German
title	But … What is the Poverty Rate Today? : Testing Poverty Nowcasting Methods in Latin America and the Caribbean
title_short	But … What is the Poverty Rate Today? : Testing Poverty Nowcasting Methods in Latin America and the Caribbean
title_full	But … What is the Poverty Rate Today? : Testing Poverty Nowcasting Methods in Latin America and the Caribbean
title_fullStr	But … What is the Poverty Rate Today? : Testing Poverty Nowcasting Methods in Latin America and the Caribbean
title_full_unstemmed	But … What is the Poverty Rate Today? : Testing Poverty Nowcasting Methods in Latin America and the Caribbean
title_sort	but … what is the poverty rate today? : testing poverty nowcasting methods in latin america and the caribbean
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2017
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/898691497881586394/But-what-is-the-poverty-rate-today-testing-poverty-nowcasting-methods-in-Latin-America-and-the-Caribbean http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27304
_version_	1764464155802206208

But … What is the Poverty Rate Today? : Testing Poverty Nowcasting Methods in Latin America and the Caribbean

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