Afghanistan in Transition : Looking Beyond 2014
Afghanistan will experience a major security and development transition over the next three years. At the Kabul and Lisbon Conferences in 2010, NATO and the Afghan government agreed that full responsibility for security would be handed over to the...
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| Format: | Report |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
Washington, DC
2017
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/966181467994621017/Overview http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27334 |
| Summary: | Afghanistan will experience a major
security and development transition over the next three
years. At the Kabul and Lisbon Conferences in 2010, NATO and
the Afghan government agreed that full responsibility for
security would be handed over to the Afghan National
Security Forces (ANSF) by the end of 2014. Development
progress since 2001 has been mixed. Some major achievements
have been recorded, such as rapid economic growth (with
large fluctuations), relatively low inflation (after
hyperinflation in the 1990s), better public financial
management, and gains in basic health and education. Key
social indicators, including life expectancy and maternal
mortality, have improved markedly (admittedly from an
extremely low base), and women are participating more in the
economy. Yet in other respects, particularly governance and
institution building, the country has fared less well, and
many indicators have worsened in recent years. Afghanistan
remains one of the world's least developed countries,
with a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of only $528
in 2010/11. More than a third of the population live below
the poverty line, more than half are vulnerable and at
serious risk of falling into poverty, and three?quarters are
illiterate. This report is intended to be comprehensive, so
it also discusses the broader historical and political
economy context of development in the country, and how
Afghanistan compares with other countries that have
undergone their own transitions over the past 30 years. This
report is based on data collected from various sources in
2011, and its analysis and findings therefore comprise the
team's considered assessment using the best available
information available by the end of that year. In addition,
projections of future trends in Afghanistan inevitably are
subject to uncertainty and reflect any weaknesses in the
underlying data. Thus the report's projections should
be seen as subject to further adjustments and improvements
as better and more recent information become available. This
report is presented in two volumes. Volume one is a
stand?alone Overview which highlights the main findings,
projections, and recommendations of the study. Volume two
consists of five chapters presenting the detailed empirical
background, analytical findings, projections, and
recommendations of the study, along with a concluding
chapter and three technical appendices. |
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