Thailand Economic Monitor, June 2010
The Thai economy runs on a single engine: external demand. The economic roller coaster since the onset of the global financial crisis can be overwhelmingly attributed to fluctuations in the output of three sectors most sensitive to external demand:...
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| Format: | Report |
| Language: | English en_US |
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Washington, DC
2017
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/966211468118139954/Thailand-economic-monitor-June-2010 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27547 |
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okr-10986-27547 |
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oai_dc |
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Digital Repository |
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Foreign Institution |
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Digital Repositories |
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World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English en_US |
| topic |
ACCOUNTING ADVANCED ECONOMIES AGRICULTURE ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT ASSET PRICE ASSETS AVERAGE OIL PRICE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BENCHMARK BID BOND MARKET BOND MARKETS BOND PRICES BONDS BUDGET DEFICIT CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS CAPITAL ACCOUNT CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL ADEQUACY CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL GOODS CAPITAL INFLOWS CAPITAL MARKET CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT CAPITAL OUTFLOWS CLEARING HOUSE COMMERCIAL BANKS COMMODITY PRICES COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE COMPETITIVENESS CONSOLIDATION CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONSUMER PREFERENCES CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMERS CORPORATE BOND CORRELATION ANALYSIS CORRELATION COEFFICIENT CPI CREDIT BUREAU CREDIT GROWTH CURRENCY CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUSES DEBT DEBT CRISIS DEBT LEVELS DEBT RATING DEMAND GROWTH DEPOSIT DEPOSITS DISBURSEMENTS DOMESTIC DEMAND DOMESTIC INVESTORS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC COOPERATION ECONOMIC CRISIS ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ECONOMIC OUTCOMES ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC RESEARCH ECONOMIC SHOCK EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATES EQUILIBRIUM EQUIPMENT EQUITY MARKETS EXCESS CAPACITY EXCHANGE COMMISSION EXCHANGE RATES EXIT STRATEGIES EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS EXPORT EARNINGS EXPORT GOODS EXPORT GROWTH EXPORT PERFORMANCE EXPORT VOLUME EXPORTS EXTERNAL DEMAND FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL INSTITUTION FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FINANCIAL MARKETS FINANCIAL SECTOR FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL POLICIES FISCAL POLICY FOOD PRICE FOOD PRICES FORECASTS FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN INVESTMENT FOREIGN RESERVES FORESTRY FREE TRADE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT FUTURES FUTURES EXCHANGE GDP GLOBAL DEMAND GLOBAL INTEREST GLOBAL TRADE GOLD GOVERNMENT BOND GOVERNMENT BONDS GOVERNMENT SECURITIES GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES IMPORT IMPORT CONTENT IMPORT DEMAND IMPORT GROWTH IMPORT PRICES IMPORTS IMPORTS GOODS INCOME INDEBTEDNESS INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIES INFLATION INFLATION RATES INFLATION RISKS INFLATIONARY PRESSURES INTEREST RATES INTERMEDIATE GOODS INTERNATIONAL INTEREST INTERNATIONAL INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL RESERVES INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVENTORIES INVENTORY INVESTMENT CLIMATE KEY RISK KEY RISKS LABOR COSTS LABOR FORCE LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LEADING INDICATORS LOCAL CURRENCIES LOW INTEREST RATES MARKET PRICES MARKET SHARE METALS MONETARY POLICIES MONETARY POLICY MORTGAGE MULTINATIONAL COMPANIES MULTIPLIER EFFECT NATIONAL CREDIT NET EXPORTS NON-PERFORMING LOAN NPL OIL COMMODITIES OIL COMMODITY OIL COMMODITY PRICES OIL PRICE POLITICAL STABILITY POLITICAL TURMOIL POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY POVERTY REDUCTION PRICE INSURANCE PRIVATE CONSUMPTION PRIVATE INVESTMENT PRIVATE INVESTMENTS PRIVATE SAVING PRODUCTION PROCESSES PROTECTIONIST MEASURES PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT PUBLIC EXPENDITURE PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC INVESTMENTS PURCHASING POWER REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE REAL GDP RECESSION RECESSIONS RETURN REVALUATION RISK AVERSION RISK MANAGEMENT RISK PREMIUMS SHORTFALLS SLACK SOVEREIGN DEBT SPEED OF ADJUSTMENT STANDARD DEVIATION STOCK EXCHANGE STOCK MARKET STOCK MARKETS STOCKS STRUCTURAL CHANGE STRUCTURAL REFORM SUPPLY RESPONSE SUSTAINABLE GROWTH TAX INCREASES TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TRADE NEGOTIATIONS TRADE REGIME TRADE TRANSACTIONS TRADING PARTNERS TRANSACTIONS COSTS TROUGH UNCERTAINTIES UNCERTAINTY UNDERESTIMATES UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES VALUATION VALUE ADDED VALUE INDEX VALUE INDICES WAGE DIFFERENTIALS WAGES WEALTH WORLD ECONOMY WORLD TRADE |
| spellingShingle |
ACCOUNTING ADVANCED ECONOMIES AGRICULTURE ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT ASSET PRICE ASSETS AVERAGE OIL PRICE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BENCHMARK BID BOND MARKET BOND MARKETS BOND PRICES BONDS BUDGET DEFICIT CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS CAPITAL ACCOUNT CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL ADEQUACY CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL GOODS CAPITAL INFLOWS CAPITAL MARKET CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT CAPITAL OUTFLOWS CLEARING HOUSE COMMERCIAL BANKS COMMODITY PRICES COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE COMPETITIVENESS CONSOLIDATION CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONSUMER PREFERENCES CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMERS CORPORATE BOND CORRELATION ANALYSIS CORRELATION COEFFICIENT CPI CREDIT BUREAU CREDIT GROWTH CURRENCY CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUSES DEBT DEBT CRISIS DEBT LEVELS DEBT RATING DEMAND GROWTH DEPOSIT DEPOSITS DISBURSEMENTS DOMESTIC DEMAND DOMESTIC INVESTORS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC COOPERATION ECONOMIC CRISIS ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ECONOMIC OUTCOMES ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC RESEARCH ECONOMIC SHOCK EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATES EQUILIBRIUM EQUIPMENT EQUITY MARKETS EXCESS CAPACITY EXCHANGE COMMISSION EXCHANGE RATES EXIT STRATEGIES EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS EXPORT EARNINGS EXPORT GOODS EXPORT GROWTH EXPORT PERFORMANCE EXPORT VOLUME EXPORTS EXTERNAL DEMAND FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL INSTITUTION FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FINANCIAL MARKETS FINANCIAL SECTOR FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL POLICIES FISCAL POLICY FOOD PRICE FOOD PRICES FORECASTS FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN INVESTMENT FOREIGN RESERVES FORESTRY FREE TRADE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT FUTURES FUTURES EXCHANGE GDP GLOBAL DEMAND GLOBAL INTEREST GLOBAL TRADE GOLD GOVERNMENT BOND GOVERNMENT BONDS GOVERNMENT SECURITIES GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES IMPORT IMPORT CONTENT IMPORT DEMAND IMPORT GROWTH IMPORT PRICES IMPORTS IMPORTS GOODS INCOME INDEBTEDNESS INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIES INFLATION INFLATION RATES INFLATION RISKS INFLATIONARY PRESSURES INTEREST RATES INTERMEDIATE GOODS INTERNATIONAL INTEREST INTERNATIONAL INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL RESERVES INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVENTORIES INVENTORY INVESTMENT CLIMATE KEY RISK KEY RISKS LABOR COSTS LABOR FORCE LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LEADING INDICATORS LOCAL CURRENCIES LOW INTEREST RATES MARKET PRICES MARKET SHARE METALS MONETARY POLICIES MONETARY POLICY MORTGAGE MULTINATIONAL COMPANIES MULTIPLIER EFFECT NATIONAL CREDIT NET EXPORTS NON-PERFORMING LOAN NPL OIL COMMODITIES OIL COMMODITY OIL COMMODITY PRICES OIL PRICE POLITICAL STABILITY POLITICAL TURMOIL POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY POVERTY REDUCTION PRICE INSURANCE PRIVATE CONSUMPTION PRIVATE INVESTMENT PRIVATE INVESTMENTS PRIVATE SAVING PRODUCTION PROCESSES PROTECTIONIST MEASURES PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT PUBLIC EXPENDITURE PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC INVESTMENTS PURCHASING POWER REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE REAL GDP RECESSION RECESSIONS RETURN REVALUATION RISK AVERSION RISK MANAGEMENT RISK PREMIUMS SHORTFALLS SLACK SOVEREIGN DEBT SPEED OF ADJUSTMENT STANDARD DEVIATION STOCK EXCHANGE STOCK MARKET STOCK MARKETS STOCKS STRUCTURAL CHANGE STRUCTURAL REFORM SUPPLY RESPONSE SUSTAINABLE GROWTH TAX INCREASES TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TRADE NEGOTIATIONS TRADE REGIME TRADE TRANSACTIONS TRADING PARTNERS TRANSACTIONS COSTS TROUGH UNCERTAINTIES UNCERTAINTY UNDERESTIMATES UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES VALUATION VALUE ADDED VALUE INDEX VALUE INDICES WAGE DIFFERENTIALS WAGES WEALTH WORLD ECONOMY WORLD TRADE World Bank Thailand Economic Monitor, June 2010 |
| geographic_facet |
East Asia and Pacific Thailand |
| description |
The Thai economy runs on a single
engine: external demand. The economic roller coaster since
the onset of the global financial crisis can be
overwhelmingly attributed to fluctuations in the output of
three sectors most sensitive to external demand:
manufacturing, logistics (transportation and storage), and
tourism (hotels and restaurants). As global trade contracted
between the fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter of
2009, Thailand's real gross domestic product (GDP) fell
6.3 percent, before rebounding 6.9 percent through the end
of 2009 on a revival in actual and expected external demand.
At the end of 2009, real GDP was back to pre-crisis levels,
as measured in seasonally adjusted terms. For 2009 as a
whole, however, real GDP fell 2.2 percent. The dominance of
sectors linked to external demand over Thailand's
growth dynamics is not new. Both sets of sectors grew at
about the same pace prior to the 1997 financial crisis.
However, a structural break took place in the aftermath of
the crisis, when sectors linked to external demand grew an
average of 6.1 percent between 2001 and 2007 compared to a
4.3 percent growth rate of other sectors. While the sectors
linked to external demand are expected to grow below the
historical average in the near term due to lower growth in
demand from advanced economies, a reversal of the structural
change observed since 1998 is unlikely. This will require an
acceleration of the growth of the sectors linked to domestic
demand. But the constraints that limited the growth of these
sectors in the past not only remain but have been compounded
in the near term by the escalation of the political
conflict. This will ensure that growth rates in sectors
linked to domestic demand will also remain below their
(already low) historical averages and the dominance of
external demand on the economy will continue to increase. |
| format |
Report |
| author |
World Bank |
| author_facet |
World Bank |
| author_sort |
World Bank |
| title |
Thailand Economic Monitor, June 2010 |
| title_short |
Thailand Economic Monitor, June 2010 |
| title_full |
Thailand Economic Monitor, June 2010 |
| title_fullStr |
Thailand Economic Monitor, June 2010 |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Thailand Economic Monitor, June 2010 |
| title_sort |
thailand economic monitor, june 2010 |
| publisher |
Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2017 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/966211468118139954/Thailand-economic-monitor-June-2010 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27547 |
| _version_ |
1764464452690771968 |
| spelling |
okr-10986-275472021-04-23T14:04:42Z Thailand Economic Monitor, June 2010 World Bank ACCOUNTING ADVANCED ECONOMIES AGRICULTURE ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT ASSET PRICE ASSETS AVERAGE OIL PRICE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BENCHMARK BID BOND MARKET BOND MARKETS BOND PRICES BONDS BUDGET DEFICIT CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS CAPITAL ACCOUNT CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL ADEQUACY CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL GOODS CAPITAL INFLOWS CAPITAL MARKET CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT CAPITAL OUTFLOWS CLEARING HOUSE COMMERCIAL BANKS COMMODITY PRICES COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE COMPETITIVENESS CONSOLIDATION CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONSUMER PREFERENCES CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMERS CORPORATE BOND CORRELATION ANALYSIS CORRELATION COEFFICIENT CPI CREDIT BUREAU CREDIT GROWTH CURRENCY CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUSES DEBT DEBT CRISIS DEBT LEVELS DEBT RATING DEMAND GROWTH DEPOSIT DEPOSITS DISBURSEMENTS DOMESTIC DEMAND DOMESTIC INVESTORS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC COOPERATION ECONOMIC CRISIS ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ECONOMIC OUTCOMES ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC RESEARCH ECONOMIC SHOCK EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATES EQUILIBRIUM EQUIPMENT EQUITY MARKETS EXCESS CAPACITY EXCHANGE COMMISSION EXCHANGE RATES EXIT STRATEGIES EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS EXPORT EARNINGS EXPORT GOODS EXPORT GROWTH EXPORT PERFORMANCE EXPORT VOLUME EXPORTS EXTERNAL DEMAND FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL INSTITUTION FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FINANCIAL MARKETS FINANCIAL SECTOR FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL POLICIES FISCAL POLICY FOOD PRICE FOOD PRICES FORECASTS FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN INVESTMENT FOREIGN RESERVES FORESTRY FREE TRADE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT FUTURES FUTURES EXCHANGE GDP GLOBAL DEMAND GLOBAL INTEREST GLOBAL TRADE GOLD GOVERNMENT BOND GOVERNMENT BONDS GOVERNMENT SECURITIES GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES IMPORT IMPORT CONTENT IMPORT DEMAND IMPORT GROWTH IMPORT PRICES IMPORTS IMPORTS GOODS INCOME INDEBTEDNESS INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIES INFLATION INFLATION RATES INFLATION RISKS INFLATIONARY PRESSURES INTEREST RATES INTERMEDIATE GOODS INTERNATIONAL INTEREST INTERNATIONAL INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL RESERVES INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVENTORIES INVENTORY INVESTMENT CLIMATE KEY RISK KEY RISKS LABOR COSTS LABOR FORCE LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LEADING INDICATORS LOCAL CURRENCIES LOW INTEREST RATES MARKET PRICES MARKET SHARE METALS MONETARY POLICIES MONETARY POLICY MORTGAGE MULTINATIONAL COMPANIES MULTIPLIER EFFECT NATIONAL CREDIT NET EXPORTS NON-PERFORMING LOAN NPL OIL COMMODITIES OIL COMMODITY OIL COMMODITY PRICES OIL PRICE POLITICAL STABILITY POLITICAL TURMOIL POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY POVERTY REDUCTION PRICE INSURANCE PRIVATE CONSUMPTION PRIVATE INVESTMENT PRIVATE INVESTMENTS PRIVATE SAVING PRODUCTION PROCESSES PROTECTIONIST MEASURES PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT PUBLIC EXPENDITURE PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC INVESTMENTS PURCHASING POWER REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE REAL GDP RECESSION RECESSIONS RETURN REVALUATION RISK AVERSION RISK MANAGEMENT RISK PREMIUMS SHORTFALLS SLACK SOVEREIGN DEBT SPEED OF ADJUSTMENT STANDARD DEVIATION STOCK EXCHANGE STOCK MARKET STOCK MARKETS STOCKS STRUCTURAL CHANGE STRUCTURAL REFORM SUPPLY RESPONSE SUSTAINABLE GROWTH TAX INCREASES TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TRADE NEGOTIATIONS TRADE REGIME TRADE TRANSACTIONS TRADING PARTNERS TRANSACTIONS COSTS TROUGH UNCERTAINTIES UNCERTAINTY UNDERESTIMATES UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES VALUATION VALUE ADDED VALUE INDEX VALUE INDICES WAGE DIFFERENTIALS WAGES WEALTH WORLD ECONOMY WORLD TRADE The Thai economy runs on a single engine: external demand. The economic roller coaster since the onset of the global financial crisis can be overwhelmingly attributed to fluctuations in the output of three sectors most sensitive to external demand: manufacturing, logistics (transportation and storage), and tourism (hotels and restaurants). As global trade contracted between the fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009, Thailand's real gross domestic product (GDP) fell 6.3 percent, before rebounding 6.9 percent through the end of 2009 on a revival in actual and expected external demand. At the end of 2009, real GDP was back to pre-crisis levels, as measured in seasonally adjusted terms. For 2009 as a whole, however, real GDP fell 2.2 percent. The dominance of sectors linked to external demand over Thailand's growth dynamics is not new. Both sets of sectors grew at about the same pace prior to the 1997 financial crisis. However, a structural break took place in the aftermath of the crisis, when sectors linked to external demand grew an average of 6.1 percent between 2001 and 2007 compared to a 4.3 percent growth rate of other sectors. While the sectors linked to external demand are expected to grow below the historical average in the near term due to lower growth in demand from advanced economies, a reversal of the structural change observed since 1998 is unlikely. This will require an acceleration of the growth of the sectors linked to domestic demand. But the constraints that limited the growth of these sectors in the past not only remain but have been compounded in the near term by the escalation of the political conflict. This will ensure that growth rates in sectors linked to domestic demand will also remain below their (already low) historical averages and the dominance of external demand on the economy will continue to increase. 2017-07-12T21:47:12Z 2017-07-12T21:47:12Z 2010-06 Report http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/966211468118139954/Thailand-economic-monitor-June-2010 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27547 English en_US CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank Washington, DC Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling Economic & Sector Work East Asia and Pacific Thailand |