The Effects of Rice Export Policy on Regional Income, Prices and the Poor : A 'Bottom-Up' Regional CGE Model for Vietnam

The Effects of Rice Export Policy on Regional Income, Prices and the Poor : A 'Bottom-Up' Regional CGE Model for Vietnam

A 'bottom up' regional Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) model for Vietnam is constructed for 28 commodities and 8 regions (using a GSO input-output table for 2005). The model is used to analyze the recent dramatic increases in t...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Kompas, Tom, Pham, Van Ha, Tuong, Nhu Che, Nguyen, Thi Minh Hoa, Bui, Trinh
Format:	Report
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2017
Subjects:	AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AGRICULTURE BARRIERS TO ENTRY BENCHMARK BENCHMARKS CALORIE INTAKE CAPITAL STOCKS COFFEE COMMODITIES COMMODITY COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE CONSUMER PRICE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMERS COTTON CROPS DECISION MAKING DELTA REGION DOMESTIC ECONOMY DOMESTIC MARKET DOMESTIC MARKETS DOMESTIC PRICE DOMESTIC PRICES ELASTICITY ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION EQUILIBRIUM EXCHANGE RATE EXPENDITURE EXPORTS FAO FARM FARM ASSETS FARMING FINANCIAL SERVICES FISHERIES FIXED CAPITAL FOOD POLICY FOOD PRICES FOOD SECURITY FREE TRADE GDP GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION GRAIN HECTARES OF LAND HOUSEHOLD WELFARE INCOME INFLATION INFLATION RATE INTERMEDIATE PRODUCTS INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE INVENTORIES INVENTORY LIBERALIZATION LIVING STANDARDS MARKET INTEGRATION MARKET REFORM MARKET REFORMS MULTIPLIERS OUTPUT OUTPUTS PADDY PEPPER PERENNIAL CROPS PLANTING POULTRY POVERTY ASSESSMENT PRICE CHANGE PRICE CHANGES PRICE INCREASE PRIVATE PROPERTY PRODUCE PRODUCTION COST PROPERTY RIGHTS REAL INCOME REGIONAL CHARACTERISTICS REGIONAL DIMENSION REGIONAL ECONOMY REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT REGIONAL IMPACTS REGIONAL INCOME REGIONAL INEQUALITY REGIONAL INPUT REMOTE REGION RETAIL RICE CULTIVATION RICE PRICE RICE PRICES RICE PROCESSING RICE PRODUCTION RURAL AREAS RURAL DWELLERS RURAL HOUSEHOLDS RURAL POOR SAVINGS SPATIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL SPREAD SURPLUS TAX TEA TRADE LIBERALIZATION TRADE POLICY WAGES WORLD TRADE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/619361468329677689/The-effects-of-rice-export-policy-on-regional-income-prices-and-the-poor-A-bottom-up-regional-CGE-model-for-Vietnam http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27579

Description
Summary:	A 'bottom up' regional Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) model for Vietnam is constructed for 28 commodities and 8 regions (using a GSO input-output table for 2005). The model is used to analyze the recent dramatic increases in the world price of rice on the regional economy of Vietnam, and the Vietnamese policy response to limit exports. Although results show limited 'pro-poor' outcomes, the CGE model and a micro-simulation (using 2006 VHLSS - Vietnamese Household Living Standard Survey data) show that recent rice export quotas resulted in falls total rural savings as measured by the difference in total income less total production cost and consumption of rice. The structure of the paper is as follows. Section two provides the background and reviews existing studies in Vietnam that have tried to estimate the welfare impact of government policies in rice market. Section three describes the methods and data. The results from the CGE model and micro-simulation on household data are discussed in section four. Section five offer concluding remarks.

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