Population Aging and Economic Growth

Between 2000 and 2050, the share of the population aged 60 and over is projected to increase in every country in the world. Although labor force participation rates are projected to decline from 2000 to 2040 in most countries, due mainly to changes...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Bloom, David E., Canning, David, Fink, Günther
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2017
Subjects:	ACCOUNTING ADULT MORTALITY ADVERSE CONSEQUENCES AGE DISTRIBUTION AGE GROUPS AGED AGING AGING POPULATIONS ALCOHOL ABUSE ANXIETY BABIES BABY BABY BOOM BEHAVIOR CHANGE BIRTH RATE CAPITAL MARKETS CENSUS CENSUS DATA CHANGES IN FERTILITY CHILD MORTALITY CHILDREN PER WOMAN CHRONIC DISEASE CLIMATE CHANGE CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION CRIME DEATH RATE DEATH RATES DECLINES IN FERTILITY DEMAND FOR SERVICES DEMOCRACY DEMOGRAPHERS DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE DEMOGRAPHIC IMBALANCES DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION DEMOGRAPHICS DEPENDENCY BURDEN DEPENDENCY RATIOS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DIET DISABILITY DISCRIMINATION DISTRIBUTIONS OF POPULATION DRIVERS EARLY RETIREMENT ECONOMIC BENEFITS ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS ECONOMIC NEEDS ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMICS EFFECTS OF POPULATION EFFICIENCY OF LABOR ELDERLY ELDERLY PEOPLE ELDERLY POPULATION EMPLOYMENT EPIDEMIC FAMILIES FAMILY STRUCTURES FEMALE LABOR FEMALE LABOR FORCE FERTILITY BEHAVIOR FERTILITY DECLINES FERTILITY RATE FERTILITY RATES FINANCIAL MARKETS FINANCIAL NEEDS FISCAL POLICIES FISCAL POLICY FUTURE POPULATION GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM GLOBAL HEALTH GLOBAL POPULATION GREENHOUSE GASES HEALTH CARE HEALTH CARE COSTS HEALTH CARE FINANCE HEALTH ECONOMICS HEALTH IMPACT HEALTH IMPACTS HEALTH STATUS HEALTHY LIFE HIGH FERTILITY HIGH POPULATION GROWTH HIV/AIDS HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD LEVEL HUMAN CAPITAL ILL-HEALTH ILLNESS IMMIGRATION IMPACT OF POPULATION IMPACTS OF POPULATION IMPORTANT POLICY INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION INFANT INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY INTERNATIONAL LABOR ORGANIZATION INTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION INTERNATIONAL TRADE ISOLATION JOURNAL OF MEDICINE LABOR FORCE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION LABOR STATISTICS LABOR SUPPLY LAWS LEGAL STATUS LEISURE TIME LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT LIFE CYCLE LIFE EXPECTANCY LIFESTYLES LIVING STANDARDS LONGER LIFE LOW FERTILITY LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES LOWER FERTILITY MALES MEDICAL RESEARCH MEDICAL TECHNOLOGIES MIGRATION FLOWS MORBIDITY MORTALITY MORTALITY RATES NATURAL DEATH NATURAL RESOURCES NUMBER OF PEOPLE NUTRITION OBESITY OLD AGE OLD-AGE OLDER MEN OLDER PEOPLE OLDER WORKERS PENSIONS POLICY IMPLICATIONS POLICY MAKERS POLITICAL ECONOMY POOR HEALTH POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT POPULATION BOMB POPULATION BY AGE POPULATION CHANGE POPULATION DATA POPULATION DEBATE POPULATION DIVISION POPULATION ESTIMATES POPULATION FORECASTS POPULATION GROWTH RATE POPULATION HEALTH POPULATION MATTERS POPULATION PROJECTIONS POPULATION SIZE POPULATION STRUCTURE POPULATION STUDIES POPULATION THEORY POPULATION TRENDS PRACTITIONERS PROBLEM OF POPULATION PRODUCTIVITY PROGRESS PUBLIC HEALTH PURCHASING POWER PURCHASING POWER PARITY RAPID POPULATION GROWTH REAL INCOME RESPECT RETIREMENT SEX SEX DISTRIBUTION SMOKING SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES SOCIAL SECURITY TOTAL FERTILITY RATE VIRGIN WAGES WAR WASTE WORKERS WORKFORCE WORKING HOURS WORKING-AGE POPULATION WORLD POPULATION YOUNG PEOPLE YOUNG POPULATIONS
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/875321468163461857/Population-aging-and-economic-growth http://hdl.handle.net/10986/28027

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Summary:	Between 2000 and 2050, the share of the population aged 60 and over is projected to increase in every country in the world. Although labor force participation rates are projected to decline from 2000 to 2040 in most countries, due mainly to changes in their age distributions, labor force- to-population ratios will actually increase in most countries. This is because low fertility will cause lower youth dependency that is more than enough to offset the skewing of adults toward the older ages at which labor force participation is lower. The increase in labor-force-to-population ratios will be further magnified by increases in age-specific rates of female labor force participation associated with fertility declines. These factors suggest that economic growth will continue apace, notwithstanding the phenomenon of population aging. For the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, the declines projected to occur in both labor force participation and labor-force-to-population ratios suggest modest declines in the pace of economic growth. But even these effects can be mitigated by behavioral responses to population aging-in the form of higher savings for retirement, greater labor force participation, and increased immigration from labor-surplus to labor-deficit countries. Countries that can facilitate such changes may be able to limit the adverse consequences of population aging. When seen through the lens of several mitigating considerations, there is reason to think that population aging in developed countries may have less effect than some have predicted. In addition, policy responses related to retirement incentives, pension funding methods, investments in health care of the elderly, and immigration can further ameliorate the effect of population aging on economic growth.

Population Aging and Economic Growth

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