Moldova Climate Adaptation Investment Planning
Moldova ranks as the most climate vulnerable country in Europe, according to the widely used NDGAIN vulnerability assessment methodology. Temperature and rainfall have increased in Moldova over the last century, and severe floods and droughts have...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Report |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
Washington, DC
2017
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/469311500273762091/Moldova-Climate-adaptation-investment-planning-technical-assistance http://hdl.handle.net/10986/28332 |
| Summary: | Moldova ranks as the most climate
vulnerable country in Europe, according to the widely used
NDGAIN vulnerability assessment methodology. Temperature and
rainfall have increased in Moldova over the last century,
and severe floods and droughts have been occurring more
regularly in recent times. For example, in the years prior
to 2007, average annual losses from climate-related disaster
losses were estimated at over USD60m per year, but in the
same year, a severe drought occurred which was later
assessed to have caused around USD1 billion of damage and
losses. Looking forward, climate models predict further mean
temperature rises and more variable rainfall with anything
from a slight increase to a significant decline in total
precipitation. Even under scenarios with an increase in mean
rainfall, however, water availability will decrease due to
increased temperatures and rates of evapotranspiration.
Rainfall will also become more variable and more
concentrated due to the more common extreme events. In
general, climate adaptation issues in Moldova have been well
characterized. The National Climate Change Adaptation
Strategy identifies six sectors at particular risk.
Agricultural productivity will significantly decrease due to
increasing water stress on crops, even without accounting
for the increasing impact of extreme weather events (i.e.,
hailstorms and late frosts, major floods and droughts, or
changes in patterns of disease and pests). Total water
availability will fall below total demand within a couple of
decades. Health effects of climate change will include
increases in heat related ailments (including
cardio-vascular disease), transmission of gastro-intestinal
diseases, air pollution and allergies, as well as higher
numbers of casualties from natural disasters. The
productivity of forests will diminish and pathology patterns
are expected to change. Peak energy consumption patterns
will shift from the winter to the summer, energy
distribution and transmission infrastructure may also be
impacted and the country’s potential to reduce energy
imports through development of renewable sources (mainly
solar, biomass, wind, and geothermal) could be compromised.
Transport infrastructure could be disrupted. The current
study extends existing analyses through a quantitative
assessment of adaptation investment opportunities and
returns across the target sectors. To achieve this, the
study evaluated the cost of inaction in each sector, i.e.,
the expected annual opportunity cost of not being better
adapted to prevailing climate conditions. |
|---|