Multidimensional Stress Test for Hydropower Investments Facing Climate, Geophysical and Financial Uncertainty

Investors, developers, policy makers and engineers are rightly concerned about the potential effects of climate change on the future performance of hydropower investments. Hydroelectricity offers potentially low greenhouse-gas emission, renewable energy and reliable energy storage. However, hydroele...

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Main Authors:	Ray, Patrick A., Bonzanigo, Laura, Wi, Sungwook, Yang, Yi-Chen E., Karki, Pravin, Garcia, Luis E., Rodriguez, Diego J., Brown, Casey M.
Format:	Journal Article
Published:	Elsevier 2018
Subjects:	CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION RESILIENCE WATER RESOURCES HYDROPOWER HIMALAYAS RISK ASSESSMENT STAKEHOLDER INTERESTS
Online Access:	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/29445

id	okr-10986-29445
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-294452021-05-25T10:54:34Z Multidimensional Stress Test for Hydropower Investments Facing Climate, Geophysical and Financial Uncertainty Ray, Patrick A. Bonzanigo, Laura Wi, Sungwook Yang, Yi-Chen E. Karki, Pravin Garcia, Luis E. Rodriguez, Diego J. Brown, Casey M. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION RESILIENCE WATER RESOURCES HYDROPOWER HIMALAYAS RISK ASSESSMENT STAKEHOLDER INTERESTS Investors, developers, policy makers and engineers are rightly concerned about the potential effects of climate change on the future performance of hydropower investments. Hydroelectricity offers potentially low greenhouse-gas emission, renewable energy and reliable energy storage. However, hydroelectricity developments are large, complicated projects and possibly critically vulnerable to changes in climate and other assumptions related to future uncertainties. This paper presents a general assessment approach for evaluating the resilience of hydroelectricity projects to uncertainty in climate and other risk factors (e.g., financial, natural hazard). The process uses a decision analytic framework based on a decision scaling approach, which combines scenario neutral analysis and vulnerability-specific probability assessment. The technical evaluation process involves identification of project objectives, specification of uncertain factors, multi-dimensional sensitivity analysis, and data mining to identify vulnerability-specific scenarios and vulnerability-specific estimations of risk. The process is demonstrated with an application to a proposed hydropower facility on the Arun River in Nepal. The findings of the case study illustrate an example in which climate change is not the critical future uncertainty, and consequently highlight the importance of considering multiple uncertainties in combination. 2018-03-08T21:16:10Z 2018-03-08T21:16:10Z 2018-01 Journal Article Global Environment Change 0959-3780 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/29445 CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo World Bank Elsevier Publications & Research :: Journal Article Publications & Research South Asia Nepal
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
topic	CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION RESILIENCE WATER RESOURCES HYDROPOWER HIMALAYAS RISK ASSESSMENT STAKEHOLDER INTERESTS
spellingShingle	CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION RESILIENCE WATER RESOURCES HYDROPOWER HIMALAYAS RISK ASSESSMENT STAKEHOLDER INTERESTS Ray, Patrick A. Bonzanigo, Laura Wi, Sungwook Yang, Yi-Chen E. Karki, Pravin Garcia, Luis E. Rodriguez, Diego J. Brown, Casey M. Multidimensional Stress Test for Hydropower Investments Facing Climate, Geophysical and Financial Uncertainty
geographic_facet	South Asia Nepal
description	Investors, developers, policy makers and engineers are rightly concerned about the potential effects of climate change on the future performance of hydropower investments. Hydroelectricity offers potentially low greenhouse-gas emission, renewable energy and reliable energy storage. However, hydroelectricity developments are large, complicated projects and possibly critically vulnerable to changes in climate and other assumptions related to future uncertainties. This paper presents a general assessment approach for evaluating the resilience of hydroelectricity projects to uncertainty in climate and other risk factors (e.g., financial, natural hazard). The process uses a decision analytic framework based on a decision scaling approach, which combines scenario neutral analysis and vulnerability-specific probability assessment. The technical evaluation process involves identification of project objectives, specification of uncertain factors, multi-dimensional sensitivity analysis, and data mining to identify vulnerability-specific scenarios and vulnerability-specific estimations of risk. The process is demonstrated with an application to a proposed hydropower facility on the Arun River in Nepal. The findings of the case study illustrate an example in which climate change is not the critical future uncertainty, and consequently highlight the importance of considering multiple uncertainties in combination.
format	Journal Article
author	Ray, Patrick A. Bonzanigo, Laura Wi, Sungwook Yang, Yi-Chen E. Karki, Pravin Garcia, Luis E. Rodriguez, Diego J. Brown, Casey M.
author_facet	Ray, Patrick A. Bonzanigo, Laura Wi, Sungwook Yang, Yi-Chen E. Karki, Pravin Garcia, Luis E. Rodriguez, Diego J. Brown, Casey M.
author_sort	Ray, Patrick A.
title	Multidimensional Stress Test for Hydropower Investments Facing Climate, Geophysical and Financial Uncertainty
title_short	Multidimensional Stress Test for Hydropower Investments Facing Climate, Geophysical and Financial Uncertainty
title_full	Multidimensional Stress Test for Hydropower Investments Facing Climate, Geophysical and Financial Uncertainty
title_fullStr	Multidimensional Stress Test for Hydropower Investments Facing Climate, Geophysical and Financial Uncertainty
title_full_unstemmed	Multidimensional Stress Test for Hydropower Investments Facing Climate, Geophysical and Financial Uncertainty
title_sort	multidimensional stress test for hydropower investments facing climate, geophysical and financial uncertainty
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2018
url	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/29445
_version_	1764469369512919040

Multidimensional Stress Test for Hydropower Investments Facing Climate, Geophysical and Financial Uncertainty

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