Western Balkans Regular Economic Report No. 13, Spring 2018 : Vulnerabilities Slow Growth

Western Balkans Regular Economic Report No. 13, Spring 2018 : Vulnerabilities Slow Growth

GDP growth in the Western Balkans slowed from 3.1 percent in 2016 to an estimated 2.4 percent in 2017. Regional growth in 2017 is less optimistic than the 2.6 percent expected when the Fall issue of this report was published. It slowed in Serbia du...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: World Bank Group
Format: Report
Language:English
Published: World Bank, Washington, DC 2018
Subjects:
JOB CREATION
EXPORTS
REVENUE COLLECTION
FISCAL TRENDS
MONETARY POLICY
ACCESS TO FINANCE
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
NON-PERFORMING LOANS
Online Access:http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/304141523592698571/Vulnerabilities-slow-growth
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/29728
id okr-10986-29728
recordtype oai_dc
spelling okr-10986-297282021-05-25T09:13:59Z Western Balkans Regular Economic Report No. 13, Spring 2018 : Vulnerabilities Slow Growth World Bank Group JOB CREATION EXPORTS REVENUE COLLECTION FISCAL TRENDS MONETARY POLICY ACCESS TO FINANCE ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NON-PERFORMING LOANS GDP growth in the Western Balkans slowed from 3.1 percent in 2016 to an estimated 2.4 percent in 2017. Regional growth in 2017 is less optimistic than the 2.6 percent expected when the Fall issue of this report was published. It slowed in Serbia due to a harsh winter and stalled in FYR Macedonia, where the political crisis deterred both public and private investment. Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) grew at a rate like the last two years. The dynamism of the smaller economies of Albania, Kosovo, and Montenegro drove regional growth in 2017, with support from higher growth in trading partners, a pickup in commodity prices, and the execution of large investment projects. Bold structural reforms are necessary if the region is to grow sustainably over the medium term. Regional GDP growth is projected to rise from 2.4 percent in 2017 to 3.2 percent in 2018 and 3.5 percent in 2019. Countries are expected to grow faster, pushed up by projected stronger growth in Europe, except for Albania, where moderation is expected as large investment projects are completed, and Montenegro, which is expected to undergo a much-needed fiscal consolidation. Among risks to the outlook are trade protectionism, normalization of interest rates globally, and low potential growth and uncertainty about domestic policy or policy reversals. These risks can be mitigated by rationalizing spending to build fiscal space for growth-enhancing reforms, and by a more strategic approach to boost competitiveness. Policies to lift physical and human capital, expand labor force participation, and improve market institutions should help raise growth potential and reduce inequality. 2018-04-26T18:28:32Z 2018-04-26T18:28:32Z 2018-04-10 Report http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/304141523592698571/Vulnerabilities-slow-growth http://hdl.handle.net/10986/29728 English CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling Economic & Sector Work Europe and Central Asia Eastern Europe Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Kosovo Macedonia, former Yugoslav Republic of Montenegro Serbia North Macedonia (Formerly the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia)
repository_type Digital Repository
institution_category Foreign Institution
institution Digital Repositories
building World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection World Bank
language English
topic JOB CREATION
EXPORTS
REVENUE COLLECTION
FISCAL TRENDS
MONETARY POLICY
ACCESS TO FINANCE
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
NON-PERFORMING LOANS
spellingShingle JOB CREATION
EXPORTS
REVENUE COLLECTION
FISCAL TRENDS
MONETARY POLICY
ACCESS TO FINANCE
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
NON-PERFORMING LOANS
World Bank Group
Western Balkans Regular Economic Report No. 13, Spring 2018 : Vulnerabilities Slow Growth
geographic_facet Europe and Central Asia
Eastern Europe
Albania
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Kosovo
Macedonia, former Yugoslav Republic of
Montenegro
Serbia
North Macedonia (Formerly the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia)
description GDP growth in the Western Balkans slowed from 3.1 percent in 2016 to an estimated 2.4 percent in 2017. Regional growth in 2017 is less optimistic than the 2.6 percent expected when the Fall issue of this report was published. It slowed in Serbia due to a harsh winter and stalled in FYR Macedonia, where the political crisis deterred both public and private investment. Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) grew at a rate like the last two years. The dynamism of the smaller economies of Albania, Kosovo, and Montenegro drove regional growth in 2017, with support from higher growth in trading partners, a pickup in commodity prices, and the execution of large investment projects. Bold structural reforms are necessary if the region is to grow sustainably over the medium term. Regional GDP growth is projected to rise from 2.4 percent in 2017 to 3.2 percent in 2018 and 3.5 percent in 2019. Countries are expected to grow faster, pushed up by projected stronger growth in Europe, except for Albania, where moderation is expected as large investment projects are completed, and Montenegro, which is expected to undergo a much-needed fiscal consolidation. Among risks to the outlook are trade protectionism, normalization of interest rates globally, and low potential growth and uncertainty about domestic policy or policy reversals. These risks can be mitigated by rationalizing spending to build fiscal space for growth-enhancing reforms, and by a more strategic approach to boost competitiveness. Policies to lift physical and human capital, expand labor force participation, and improve market institutions should help raise growth potential and reduce inequality.
format Report
author World Bank Group
author_facet World Bank Group
author_sort World Bank Group
title Western Balkans Regular Economic Report No. 13, Spring 2018 : Vulnerabilities Slow Growth
title_short Western Balkans Regular Economic Report No. 13, Spring 2018 : Vulnerabilities Slow Growth
title_full Western Balkans Regular Economic Report No. 13, Spring 2018 : Vulnerabilities Slow Growth
title_fullStr Western Balkans Regular Economic Report No. 13, Spring 2018 : Vulnerabilities Slow Growth
title_full_unstemmed Western Balkans Regular Economic Report No. 13, Spring 2018 : Vulnerabilities Slow Growth
title_sort western balkans regular economic report no. 13, spring 2018 : vulnerabilities slow growth
publisher World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate 2018
url http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/304141523592698571/Vulnerabilities-slow-growth
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/29728
_version_ 1764470088535113728

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