Improving Lead Time for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting : Review of Operational Practices and Implications for Bangladesh

Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries in the world. Owing to its low-lying topography, dense river network, location, and climate, it is exposed to a range of water and climate-related hazards. Tropical cyclones are among the mo...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author:	World Bank
Format:	Report
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2018
Subjects:	CYCLONE WEATHER FORECASTING DISASTER RISK STORM SURGE
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/582551525867171411/Improving-lead-time-for-tropical-cyclone-forecasting-review-of-operational-practices-and-implications-for-Bangladesh http://hdl.handle.net/10986/29825

id	okr-10986-29825
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-298252021-05-25T09:52:17Z Improving Lead Time for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting : Review of Operational Practices and Implications for Bangladesh World Bank CYCLONE WEATHER FORECASTING DISASTER RISK STORM SURGE Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries in the world. Owing to its low-lying topography, dense river network, location, and climate, it is exposed to a range of water and climate-related hazards. Tropical cyclones are among the most severe of these hazards. A key focus for improving disaster preparedness and early warning systems in Bangladesh is improved lead times for tropical cyclone forecasting including the quality and skill of the forecast. At present, the lead time for tropical cyclone forecast used by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), the main government agency responsible for issuing forecasts for tropical cyclone and storm surges, is three days. If lead times of 10 to 15 days with relatively high accuracy are possible, as the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasting (ECMWF) suggests, why is it not being done in Bangladesh and what can be done to improve the forecast lead time? This question motivated the writing of this paper. Critical to extending the lead times for forecasting is a better understanding of the factors that limit increasing the lead time of current forecasts. This book is arranged as follows: Chapter 1 gives description of the background and rationale for the report; Chapter 2 describes current global operational practices for forecasting tropical cyclones and storm surges, including practices at other national agencies; Chapter 3 assesses the extent to which Bangladesh uses international and regional operational practices and the technical and governance issues that limit their use; and Chapter 4 provides a summary and recommendations. 2018-05-15T18:38:49Z 2018-05-15T18:38:49Z 2018 Report http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/582551525867171411/Improving-lead-time-for-tropical-cyclone-forecasting-review-of-operational-practices-and-implications-for-Bangladesh http://hdl.handle.net/10986/29825 English CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Economic & Sector Work :: Other Environmental Study Economic & Sector Work South Asia Bangladesh
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	CYCLONE WEATHER FORECASTING DISASTER RISK STORM SURGE
spellingShingle	CYCLONE WEATHER FORECASTING DISASTER RISK STORM SURGE World Bank Improving Lead Time for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting : Review of Operational Practices and Implications for Bangladesh
geographic_facet	South Asia Bangladesh
description	Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries in the world. Owing to its low-lying topography, dense river network, location, and climate, it is exposed to a range of water and climate-related hazards. Tropical cyclones are among the most severe of these hazards. A key focus for improving disaster preparedness and early warning systems in Bangladesh is improved lead times for tropical cyclone forecasting including the quality and skill of the forecast. At present, the lead time for tropical cyclone forecast used by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), the main government agency responsible for issuing forecasts for tropical cyclone and storm surges, is three days. If lead times of 10 to 15 days with relatively high accuracy are possible, as the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasting (ECMWF) suggests, why is it not being done in Bangladesh and what can be done to improve the forecast lead time? This question motivated the writing of this paper. Critical to extending the lead times for forecasting is a better understanding of the factors that limit increasing the lead time of current forecasts. This book is arranged as follows: Chapter 1 gives description of the background and rationale for the report; Chapter 2 describes current global operational practices for forecasting tropical cyclones and storm surges, including practices at other national agencies; Chapter 3 assesses the extent to which Bangladesh uses international and regional operational practices and the technical and governance issues that limit their use; and Chapter 4 provides a summary and recommendations.
format	Report
author	World Bank
author_facet	World Bank
author_sort	World Bank
title	Improving Lead Time for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting : Review of Operational Practices and Implications for Bangladesh
title_short	Improving Lead Time for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting : Review of Operational Practices and Implications for Bangladesh
title_full	Improving Lead Time for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting : Review of Operational Practices and Implications for Bangladesh
title_fullStr	Improving Lead Time for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting : Review of Operational Practices and Implications for Bangladesh
title_full_unstemmed	Improving Lead Time for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting : Review of Operational Practices and Implications for Bangladesh
title_sort	improving lead time for tropical cyclone forecasting : review of operational practices and implications for bangladesh
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2018
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/582551525867171411/Improving-lead-time-for-tropical-cyclone-forecasting-review-of-operational-practices-and-implications-for-Bangladesh http://hdl.handle.net/10986/29825
_version_	1764470484285521920

Improving Lead Time for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting : Review of Operational Practices and Implications for Bangladesh

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