Madagascar : Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2018 Update
Madagascar’s risk of external debt distress is assessed to be moderate, in line with the last debt sustainability analysis (DSA) of June 2017, since the dynamics of Madagascar’s external public and publicly-guaranteed (PPG) debt remain sustainable...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Report |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2018
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/656551537333150566/Madagascar-Joint-Bank-Fund-Debt-Sustainability-Analysis-2018-Update http://hdl.handle.net/10986/30523 |
| Summary: | Madagascar’s risk of external debt
distress is assessed to be moderate, in line with the last
debt sustainability analysis (DSA) of June 2017, since the
dynamics of Madagascar’s external public and
publicly-guaranteed (PPG) debt remain sustainable under the
baseline. The public DSA shows total (domestic and external)
PPG debt is also sustainable under the baseline, so risks to
domestic debt are not assessed as significant. However,
stress tests breach the prudent benchmark for the public DSA
(covering both domestic and external debt) and, in only some
instances, for the external DSA. The analysis suggests that
shocks to gross domestic product (GDP) growth are the main
potential source of vulnerability, especially for the public
DSA. A weaker currency, widened fiscal deficits, lower
exports, or higher interest rates present additional risks.
This DSA reflects updated and more detailed loan data, which
include marginally less favorable financing conditions than
in the last DSA. |
|---|