Who Wins and Who Loses from Staple Food Price Spikes? : Welfare Implications for Mozambique

With a large share of the population dependent on agriculture and high exposure to natural disasters and other food price shocks, the welfare impacts of food price inflation in Mozambique cannot be ignored. This paper performs incidence analysis ex...

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Main Authors:	Baez, Javier E., Caruso, German, Pullabhotla, Hemant
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2018
Subjects:	FOOD PRICES POVERTY INCIDENCE ANALYSIS WELFARE IMPACT
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/323001539354782668/Who-Wins-and-Who-Loses-from-Staple-Food-Price-Spikes-Welfare-Implications-for-Mozambique http://hdl.handle.net/10986/30580

id	okr-10986-30580
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-305802021-06-08T14:42:48Z Who Wins and Who Loses from Staple Food Price Spikes? : Welfare Implications for Mozambique Baez, Javier E. Caruso, German Pullabhotla, Hemant FOOD PRICES POVERTY INCIDENCE ANALYSIS WELFARE IMPACT With a large share of the population dependent on agriculture and high exposure to natural disasters and other food price shocks, the welfare impacts of food price inflation in Mozambique cannot be ignored. This paper performs incidence analysis exploiting the spatial location of households to match data on consumption with production from agricultural activities to simulate the welfare effects of food price changes. The analysis focuses on maize, rice, and cassava, which form a substantial part of the Mozambican diet, as a source of calories and budgetary allocation. The results show large net negative welfare effects of food price rises in rural areas and small, negative effects in urban areas. A 10 percent increase in maize prices is associated with a reduction of 1.2 percent in consumption per capita in rural areas and 0.2 percent in urban areas. The effects from changes in the prices of rice and cassava are lower but qualitatively equal. Overall, the negative effects are larger for the bottom half of the distribution and imply that the price spike in 2016–17 may have translated into a poverty increase of 4-6 percentage points, with some of the poorest provinces bearing much of the brunt. The results hold to changes in some of the underlying assumptions of the simulations. 2018-10-16T20:33:39Z 2018-10-16T20:33:39Z 2018-10 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/323001539354782668/Who-Wins-and-Who-Loses-from-Staple-Food-Price-Spikes-Welfare-Implications-for-Mozambique http://hdl.handle.net/10986/30580 English Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8612 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Africa Mozambique
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	FOOD PRICES POVERTY INCIDENCE ANALYSIS WELFARE IMPACT
spellingShingle	FOOD PRICES POVERTY INCIDENCE ANALYSIS WELFARE IMPACT Baez, Javier E. Caruso, German Pullabhotla, Hemant Who Wins and Who Loses from Staple Food Price Spikes? : Welfare Implications for Mozambique
geographic_facet	Africa Mozambique
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8612
description	With a large share of the population dependent on agriculture and high exposure to natural disasters and other food price shocks, the welfare impacts of food price inflation in Mozambique cannot be ignored. This paper performs incidence analysis exploiting the spatial location of households to match data on consumption with production from agricultural activities to simulate the welfare effects of food price changes. The analysis focuses on maize, rice, and cassava, which form a substantial part of the Mozambican diet, as a source of calories and budgetary allocation. The results show large net negative welfare effects of food price rises in rural areas and small, negative effects in urban areas. A 10 percent increase in maize prices is associated with a reduction of 1.2 percent in consumption per capita in rural areas and 0.2 percent in urban areas. The effects from changes in the prices of rice and cassava are lower but qualitatively equal. Overall, the negative effects are larger for the bottom half of the distribution and imply that the price spike in 2016–17 may have translated into a poverty increase of 4-6 percentage points, with some of the poorest provinces bearing much of the brunt. The results hold to changes in some of the underlying assumptions of the simulations.
format	Working Paper
author	Baez, Javier E. Caruso, German Pullabhotla, Hemant
author_facet	Baez, Javier E. Caruso, German Pullabhotla, Hemant
author_sort	Baez, Javier E.
title	Who Wins and Who Loses from Staple Food Price Spikes? : Welfare Implications for Mozambique
title_short	Who Wins and Who Loses from Staple Food Price Spikes? : Welfare Implications for Mozambique
title_full	Who Wins and Who Loses from Staple Food Price Spikes? : Welfare Implications for Mozambique
title_fullStr	Who Wins and Who Loses from Staple Food Price Spikes? : Welfare Implications for Mozambique
title_full_unstemmed	Who Wins and Who Loses from Staple Food Price Spikes? : Welfare Implications for Mozambique
title_sort	who wins and who loses from staple food price spikes? : welfare implications for mozambique
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2018
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/323001539354782668/Who-Wins-and-Who-Loses-from-Staple-Food-Price-Spikes-Welfare-Implications-for-Mozambique http://hdl.handle.net/10986/30580
_version_	1764472425178726400

Who Wins and Who Loses from Staple Food Price Spikes? : Welfare Implications for Mozambique

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