Stationary Bandits, State Capacity, and the Malthusian Transition : The Lasting Impact of the Taiping Rebellion
The Taiping Rebellion (1851-1864) in China was the deadliest civil war in history. This paper provides evidence that this cataclysmic event significantly shaped the Malthusian transition and long-term development that followed, especially in areas...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2018
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/970791540230641485/Stationary-Bandits-State-Capacity-and-the-Malthusian-Transition-The-Lasting-Impact-of-the-Taiping-Rebellion http://hdl.handle.net/10986/30602 |
| Summary: | The Taiping Rebellion (1851-1864) in
China was the deadliest civil war in history. This paper
provides evidence that this cataclysmic event significantly
shaped the Malthusian transition and long-term development
that followed, especially in areas where the experiences
that stemmed from the rebellion led to better property
rights, stronger local fiscal capacity, and rule by leaders
with longer-term governance horizons. More than one and a
half centuries after the rebellion’s end, population
increases from pre-war levels remain 38 to 67 percent lower
in areas that were affected by the rebellion than in those
that were unaffected. Moreover, areas that were affected by
the rebellion have, on average, greater fiscal capacity and
modern economic sectors to the present day. Two channels for
the effects of the rebellion are stationary banditry
(manifested by varying property rights and the rebellion
area's proximity to the Taiping capital), and the
wartime strengthening of fiscal capacity. The analysis shows
evidence of complementarity between wartime state capacity
and local institutions, and of the long-term benefits of
fiscal decentralization in a large country. Furthermore,
initial human capital is strongly associated with long-term development. |
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