Extreme Weather and Poverty Risk : Evidence from Multiple Shocks in Mozambique

This paper investigates the effects of multiple weather shocks on household welfare in Mozambique, as well as some of the coping responses and price mechanisms at play. The analysis employs a triple-difference strategy that exploits variation in th...

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Main Authors:	Baez, Javier E., Caruso, German, Niu, Chiyu
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2018
Subjects:	POVERTY HUMAN WELFARE DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT WEATHER SHOCKS NATURAL DISASTER HOUSEHOLD WELFARE CROP PRODUCTION DROUGHT FLOODS CYCLONE RISK-COPING FOOD MARKET CHILD LABOR SCHOOL PARTICIPATION
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/391551544130265485/Extreme-Weather-and-Poverty-Risk-Evidence-from-Multiple-Shocks-in-Mozambique http://hdl.handle.net/10986/30989

id	okr-10986-30989
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-309892022-02-28T00:22:06Z Extreme Weather and Poverty Risk : Evidence from Multiple Shocks in Mozambique Baez, Javier E. Caruso, German Niu, Chiyu POVERTY HUMAN WELFARE DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT WEATHER SHOCKS NATURAL DISASTER HOUSEHOLD WELFARE CROP PRODUCTION DROUGHT FLOODS CYCLONE RISK-COPING FOOD MARKET CHILD LABOR SCHOOL PARTICIPATION This paper investigates the effects of multiple weather shocks on household welfare in Mozambique, as well as some of the coping responses and price mechanisms at play. The analysis employs a triple-difference strategy that exploits variation in the shocks across space, time, and cropping cycles. The findings demonstrate high levels of vulnerability across various weather risks. Experiencing a cyclone, flood, or drought leads to a drop of up to 25-30 percent in per capita food consumption and around 0.4 fewer meals per day per person. Poverty increased by 12 and 17.5 percentage points in two of the three events analyzed. Human capital accumulation, as measured by school participation and morbidity, is disrupted. Households follow risk-coping strategies, such as increasing the labor supply of their children or selling assets, which entail partial protection in the aftermath of the shock at the cost of lower income growth in the future. In disentangling the channels, the paper shows that maize prices exhibit higher volatility in food markets that are spatially close to the most affected areas. The results are robust to several robustness checks, including analysis of bias from selective migration, and indicate that household welfare and economic mobility in low-income environments are constrained by uninsured weather risks. 2018-12-11T19:51:01Z 2018-12-11T19:51:01Z 2018-12 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/391551544130265485/Extreme-Weather-and-Poverty-Risk-Evidence-from-Multiple-Shocks-in-Mozambique http://hdl.handle.net/10986/30989 English Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8667 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Africa Mozambique
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	POVERTY HUMAN WELFARE DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT WEATHER SHOCKS NATURAL DISASTER HOUSEHOLD WELFARE CROP PRODUCTION DROUGHT FLOODS CYCLONE RISK-COPING FOOD MARKET CHILD LABOR SCHOOL PARTICIPATION
spellingShingle	POVERTY HUMAN WELFARE DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT WEATHER SHOCKS NATURAL DISASTER HOUSEHOLD WELFARE CROP PRODUCTION DROUGHT FLOODS CYCLONE RISK-COPING FOOD MARKET CHILD LABOR SCHOOL PARTICIPATION Baez, Javier E. Caruso, German Niu, Chiyu Extreme Weather and Poverty Risk : Evidence from Multiple Shocks in Mozambique
geographic_facet	Africa Mozambique
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8667
description	This paper investigates the effects of multiple weather shocks on household welfare in Mozambique, as well as some of the coping responses and price mechanisms at play. The analysis employs a triple-difference strategy that exploits variation in the shocks across space, time, and cropping cycles. The findings demonstrate high levels of vulnerability across various weather risks. Experiencing a cyclone, flood, or drought leads to a drop of up to 25-30 percent in per capita food consumption and around 0.4 fewer meals per day per person. Poverty increased by 12 and 17.5 percentage points in two of the three events analyzed. Human capital accumulation, as measured by school participation and morbidity, is disrupted. Households follow risk-coping strategies, such as increasing the labor supply of their children or selling assets, which entail partial protection in the aftermath of the shock at the cost of lower income growth in the future. In disentangling the channels, the paper shows that maize prices exhibit higher volatility in food markets that are spatially close to the most affected areas. The results are robust to several robustness checks, including analysis of bias from selective migration, and indicate that household welfare and economic mobility in low-income environments are constrained by uninsured weather risks.
format	Working Paper
author	Baez, Javier E. Caruso, German Niu, Chiyu
author_facet	Baez, Javier E. Caruso, German Niu, Chiyu
author_sort	Baez, Javier E.
title	Extreme Weather and Poverty Risk : Evidence from Multiple Shocks in Mozambique
title_short	Extreme Weather and Poverty Risk : Evidence from Multiple Shocks in Mozambique
title_full	Extreme Weather and Poverty Risk : Evidence from Multiple Shocks in Mozambique
title_fullStr	Extreme Weather and Poverty Risk : Evidence from Multiple Shocks in Mozambique
title_full_unstemmed	Extreme Weather and Poverty Risk : Evidence from Multiple Shocks in Mozambique
title_sort	extreme weather and poverty risk : evidence from multiple shocks in mozambique
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2018
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/391551544130265485/Extreme-Weather-and-Poverty-Risk-Evidence-from-Multiple-Shocks-in-Mozambique http://hdl.handle.net/10986/30989
_version_	1764473338323795968

Extreme Weather and Poverty Risk : Evidence from Multiple Shocks in Mozambique

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