Europe and Central Asia - The Crisis Hits Home : Stress Testing Households in Europe and Central Asia
The financial crisis threatens the welfare of about 160 million people in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region who are poor or are just above the poverty line. Using pre-crisis household data along with aggregate macroeconomic outturns to simul...
| Main Author: | |
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| Format: | Economic Updates and Modeling |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank
2012
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000333037_20090924233757 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3110 |
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okr-10986-3110 |
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| recordtype |
oai_dc |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
ACCESS TO CREDIT ACCESS TO FINANCE ACCOUNTING ADVANCED ECONOMIES ASSET CLASSES ASSET POSITIONS ASSET PRICE ASSET PRICES ASSET QUALITY ASSET VALUES BALANCE SHEET BALANCE SHEETS BANK CREDIT BANKING MARKETS BANKING SECTOR BANKING SECTORS BANKING SYSTEM BANKING SYSTEMS BASIS POINTS BOND VALUATIONS BORROWING CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL ADEQUACY CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL INFLOWS CAPITAL OUTFLOWS CDS CENTRAL BANK COLLATERAL COMMODITY PRICE COMMODITY PRICES CONSUMER DURABLES CONTINGENT LIABILITIES CREDIT CONSTRAINTS CREDIT CRUNCH CREDIT DEFAULT CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS CREDIT GROWTH CREDIT MARKET CREDIT MARKETS CREDIT OUTSTANDING CREDIT RISK CREDIT RISKS CREDIT SOURCES CREDIT SPREADS CREDITOR CREDITOR BANK CREDITOR BANKS CRISIS COUNTRIES CURRENCY DEPRECIATIONS CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS DEBT DEBT BURDENS DEBT HOLDING DEBT OBLIGATIONS DEBT REPAYMENTS DEBT SERVICE DELINQUENCY RATES DEPOSIT DEPOSITS DEVALUATIONS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DIVERSIFICATION DOMESTIC BANKING DOMESTIC CREDIT DOMESTIC LIQUIDITY DURABLES EARNINGS ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC CRISIS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC POLICY EMERGING ECONOMIES EMERGING MARKET EMERGING MARKETS EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES EQUIPMENT EQUITIES EQUITY HOLDINGS EQUITY INDEX EQUITY INDICES EQUITY MARKET EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATES EXPORT EARNINGS EXPORT GROWTH EXPORTERS EXTERNAL FINANCE EXTERNAL FINANCING EXTERNAL FUNDING EXTERNAL SHOCKS FAMILIES FAMILY INCOME FINANCIAL ASSETS FINANCIAL CRISES FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FINANCIAL LITERACY FINANCIAL MARKET FINANCIAL MARKETS FINANCIAL POLICIES FINANCIAL RISK FINANCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENT FINANCIAL SHOCKS FINANCIAL SUPPORT FINANCING REQUIREMENTS FISCAL DEFICITS FISCAL POLICY FIXED EXCHANGE RATE FOREIGN BANK FOREIGN CURRENCIES FOREIGN CURRENCY FOREIGN CURRENCY EXPOSURES FOREIGN INVESTORS FUNDING SOURCES GENDER GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCE GLOBAL FINANCIAL STABILITY GLOBAL TRADE GOVERNMENT DEFICITS GOVERNMENT POLICIES GOVERNMENT POLICY GOVERNMENT SPENDING HOME OWNERSHIP HOST COUNTRIES HOUSEHOLD DEBT HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD INCOMES HOUSEHOLD WEALTH HOUSEHOLD WELFARE HOUSING LOANS HUMAN CAPITAL INCOME FLOWS INCOME SHOCK INCOME SHOCKS INDEBTED HOUSEHOLDS INDEBTEDNESS INFLATION INFLATION RISKS INFORMAL CREDIT INSURANCE INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATE RISKS INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL BANKING INTERNATIONAL FINANCE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL STATISTICS INVENTORIES INVESTMENT PROJECTS LABOR MARKET LIABILITY LIABILITY SIDE LIMITED ACCESS LIQUIDITY LIQUIDITY PROBLEMS LIQUIDITY RISK LIQUIDITY RISKS LIVING STANDARDS LOAN LOAN DELINQUENCY LOCAL CURRENCIES LOCAL CURRENCY MACROECONOMIC CRISES MACROECONOMIC STABILITY MARKET CONDITIONS MARKET PRICES MARKET PRICING MATURITY MATURITY MISMATCHES MICRO DATA MIGRANT LABOR MONETARY FUND MONETARY POLICY MORTGAGE MORTGAGE DEBT MORTGAGE LOANS MORTGAGES MUTUAL FUND MUTUAL FUNDS NATIONAL BANK OIL PRICE PENSION PENSION FUND PENSION FUNDS PENSION PROVISION PENSION SYSTEM PENSION SYSTEMS PENSIONS POLICY RESPONSE POLICY RESPONSES POLITICAL ECONOMY PORTFOLIO PORTFOLIO RISK PRICE CHANGES PRICE MOVEMENTS PRIVATE CAPITAL PRIVATE CREDIT PUBLIC FINANCES PUBLIC INVESTMENTS RECESSION REMITTANCE REMITTANCES RESERVES RETURNS RISK AVERSION RISK MITIGATION SAFETY NET SAFETY NETS SAVINGS SECONDARY MARKET SOCIAL CAPITAL SOLVENCY SOVEREIGN BOND STANDARD ASSET STOCKS TRADE BALANCE TRADE CREDITS TRADING UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE UNION VALUATION VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS WEALTH EFFECT WEALTH EFFECTS |
| spellingShingle |
ACCESS TO CREDIT ACCESS TO FINANCE ACCOUNTING ADVANCED ECONOMIES ASSET CLASSES ASSET POSITIONS ASSET PRICE ASSET PRICES ASSET QUALITY ASSET VALUES BALANCE SHEET BALANCE SHEETS BANK CREDIT BANKING MARKETS BANKING SECTOR BANKING SECTORS BANKING SYSTEM BANKING SYSTEMS BASIS POINTS BOND VALUATIONS BORROWING CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL ADEQUACY CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL INFLOWS CAPITAL OUTFLOWS CDS CENTRAL BANK COLLATERAL COMMODITY PRICE COMMODITY PRICES CONSUMER DURABLES CONTINGENT LIABILITIES CREDIT CONSTRAINTS CREDIT CRUNCH CREDIT DEFAULT CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS CREDIT GROWTH CREDIT MARKET CREDIT MARKETS CREDIT OUTSTANDING CREDIT RISK CREDIT RISKS CREDIT SOURCES CREDIT SPREADS CREDITOR CREDITOR BANK CREDITOR BANKS CRISIS COUNTRIES CURRENCY DEPRECIATIONS CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS DEBT DEBT BURDENS DEBT HOLDING DEBT OBLIGATIONS DEBT REPAYMENTS DEBT SERVICE DELINQUENCY RATES DEPOSIT DEPOSITS DEVALUATIONS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DIVERSIFICATION DOMESTIC BANKING DOMESTIC CREDIT DOMESTIC LIQUIDITY DURABLES EARNINGS ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC CRISIS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC POLICY EMERGING ECONOMIES EMERGING MARKET EMERGING MARKETS EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES EQUIPMENT EQUITIES EQUITY HOLDINGS EQUITY INDEX EQUITY INDICES EQUITY MARKET EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATES EXPORT EARNINGS EXPORT GROWTH EXPORTERS EXTERNAL FINANCE EXTERNAL FINANCING EXTERNAL FUNDING EXTERNAL SHOCKS FAMILIES FAMILY INCOME FINANCIAL ASSETS FINANCIAL CRISES FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FINANCIAL LITERACY FINANCIAL MARKET FINANCIAL MARKETS FINANCIAL POLICIES FINANCIAL RISK FINANCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENT FINANCIAL SHOCKS FINANCIAL SUPPORT FINANCING REQUIREMENTS FISCAL DEFICITS FISCAL POLICY FIXED EXCHANGE RATE FOREIGN BANK FOREIGN CURRENCIES FOREIGN CURRENCY FOREIGN CURRENCY EXPOSURES FOREIGN INVESTORS FUNDING SOURCES GENDER GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCE GLOBAL FINANCIAL STABILITY GLOBAL TRADE GOVERNMENT DEFICITS GOVERNMENT POLICIES GOVERNMENT POLICY GOVERNMENT SPENDING HOME OWNERSHIP HOST COUNTRIES HOUSEHOLD DEBT HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD INCOMES HOUSEHOLD WEALTH HOUSEHOLD WELFARE HOUSING LOANS HUMAN CAPITAL INCOME FLOWS INCOME SHOCK INCOME SHOCKS INDEBTED HOUSEHOLDS INDEBTEDNESS INFLATION INFLATION RISKS INFORMAL CREDIT INSURANCE INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATE RISKS INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL BANKING INTERNATIONAL FINANCE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL STATISTICS INVENTORIES INVESTMENT PROJECTS LABOR MARKET LIABILITY LIABILITY SIDE LIMITED ACCESS LIQUIDITY LIQUIDITY PROBLEMS LIQUIDITY RISK LIQUIDITY RISKS LIVING STANDARDS LOAN LOAN DELINQUENCY LOCAL CURRENCIES LOCAL CURRENCY MACROECONOMIC CRISES MACROECONOMIC STABILITY MARKET CONDITIONS MARKET PRICES MARKET PRICING MATURITY MATURITY MISMATCHES MICRO DATA MIGRANT LABOR MONETARY FUND MONETARY POLICY MORTGAGE MORTGAGE DEBT MORTGAGE LOANS MORTGAGES MUTUAL FUND MUTUAL FUNDS NATIONAL BANK OIL PRICE PENSION PENSION FUND PENSION FUNDS PENSION PROVISION PENSION SYSTEM PENSION SYSTEMS PENSIONS POLICY RESPONSE POLICY RESPONSES POLITICAL ECONOMY PORTFOLIO PORTFOLIO RISK PRICE CHANGES PRICE MOVEMENTS PRIVATE CAPITAL PRIVATE CREDIT PUBLIC FINANCES PUBLIC INVESTMENTS RECESSION REMITTANCE REMITTANCES RESERVES RETURNS RISK AVERSION RISK MITIGATION SAFETY NET SAFETY NETS SAVINGS SECONDARY MARKET SOCIAL CAPITAL SOLVENCY SOVEREIGN BOND STANDARD ASSET STOCKS TRADE BALANCE TRADE CREDITS TRADING UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE UNION VALUATION VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS WEALTH EFFECT WEALTH EFFECTS World Bank Europe and Central Asia - The Crisis Hits Home : Stress Testing Households in Europe and Central Asia |
| geographic_facet |
Europe and Central Asia |
| description |
The financial crisis threatens the
welfare of about 160 million people in the Europe and
Central Asia (ECA) region who are poor or are just above the
poverty line. Using pre-crisis household data along with
aggregate macroeconomic outturns to simulate the impact of
the crisis on households, transmitted via credit market
shocks, price shocks, and income shocks, this report finds
that adverse effects are widespread and that poor and
non-poor households alike are vulnerable. By 2010, for the
region as a whole, some 11 million more people will likely
be in poverty and over 23 million more people will find
themselves just above the poverty line because of the
crisis. The aggregate results mask the heterogeneity of
impact within countries, including the concentration of the
poverty impact in selected economic sectors. Meanwhile,
stress tests on household indebtedness in selected countries
suggest that ongoing macroeconomic shocks will expand the
pool of households unable to service their debt, many of
them from among the ranks of relatively richer households.
In fact, already there are rising household loan delinquency
rates. Finally, there is evidence that the food and fuel
crisis is not over and a new round of price increases, via
currency adjustments, will have substantial effects on net
consumers. Lessons from last year's food crisis suggest
that the poor are the worst hit, as many of the poor in
Albania, Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan, for example, are
net food consumers, with limited access to agricultural
assets and inputs. The resilience of households to
macroeconomic shocks ultimately depends upon the
economy's institutional readiness, the flexibility of
the economic policy regime, and the ability of the
population to adjust. However, compared with previous
crises, the scope for households to engage in their
traditional coping strategies may be more limited. Fiscal
policy responses in the short-term are also constrained by
rapidly falling revenues. Governments in ECA have to make
difficult choices over what spending items to protect and
what items to cut, social protection programs to reform and
scale-up, and new interventions to mitigate the impact of
the crisis. |
| format |
Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling |
| author |
World Bank |
| author_facet |
World Bank |
| author_sort |
World Bank |
| title |
Europe and Central Asia - The Crisis Hits Home : Stress Testing Households in Europe and Central Asia |
| title_short |
Europe and Central Asia - The Crisis Hits Home : Stress Testing Households in Europe and Central Asia |
| title_full |
Europe and Central Asia - The Crisis Hits Home : Stress Testing Households in Europe and Central Asia |
| title_fullStr |
Europe and Central Asia - The Crisis Hits Home : Stress Testing Households in Europe and Central Asia |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Europe and Central Asia - The Crisis Hits Home : Stress Testing Households in Europe and Central Asia |
| title_sort |
europe and central asia - the crisis hits home : stress testing households in europe and central asia |
| publisher |
World Bank |
| publishDate |
2012 |
| url |
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000333037_20090924233757 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3110 |
| _version_ |
1764386476322193408 |
| spelling |
okr-10986-31102021-04-23T14:02:07Z Europe and Central Asia - The Crisis Hits Home : Stress Testing Households in Europe and Central Asia World Bank ACCESS TO CREDIT ACCESS TO FINANCE ACCOUNTING ADVANCED ECONOMIES ASSET CLASSES ASSET POSITIONS ASSET PRICE ASSET PRICES ASSET QUALITY ASSET VALUES BALANCE SHEET BALANCE SHEETS BANK CREDIT BANKING MARKETS BANKING SECTOR BANKING SECTORS BANKING SYSTEM BANKING SYSTEMS BASIS POINTS BOND VALUATIONS BORROWING CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL ADEQUACY CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL INFLOWS CAPITAL OUTFLOWS CDS CENTRAL BANK COLLATERAL COMMODITY PRICE COMMODITY PRICES CONSUMER DURABLES CONTINGENT LIABILITIES CREDIT CONSTRAINTS CREDIT CRUNCH CREDIT DEFAULT CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS CREDIT GROWTH CREDIT MARKET CREDIT MARKETS CREDIT OUTSTANDING CREDIT RISK CREDIT RISKS CREDIT SOURCES CREDIT SPREADS CREDITOR CREDITOR BANK CREDITOR BANKS CRISIS COUNTRIES CURRENCY DEPRECIATIONS CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS DEBT DEBT BURDENS DEBT HOLDING DEBT OBLIGATIONS DEBT REPAYMENTS DEBT SERVICE DELINQUENCY RATES DEPOSIT DEPOSITS DEVALUATIONS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DIVERSIFICATION DOMESTIC BANKING DOMESTIC CREDIT DOMESTIC LIQUIDITY DURABLES EARNINGS ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC CRISIS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC POLICY EMERGING ECONOMIES EMERGING MARKET EMERGING MARKETS EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES EQUIPMENT EQUITIES EQUITY HOLDINGS EQUITY INDEX EQUITY INDICES EQUITY MARKET EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATES EXPORT EARNINGS EXPORT GROWTH EXPORTERS EXTERNAL FINANCE EXTERNAL FINANCING EXTERNAL FUNDING EXTERNAL SHOCKS FAMILIES FAMILY INCOME FINANCIAL ASSETS FINANCIAL CRISES FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FINANCIAL LITERACY FINANCIAL MARKET FINANCIAL MARKETS FINANCIAL POLICIES FINANCIAL RISK FINANCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENT FINANCIAL SHOCKS FINANCIAL SUPPORT FINANCING REQUIREMENTS FISCAL DEFICITS FISCAL POLICY FIXED EXCHANGE RATE FOREIGN BANK FOREIGN CURRENCIES FOREIGN CURRENCY FOREIGN CURRENCY EXPOSURES FOREIGN INVESTORS FUNDING SOURCES GENDER GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCE GLOBAL FINANCIAL STABILITY GLOBAL TRADE GOVERNMENT DEFICITS GOVERNMENT POLICIES GOVERNMENT POLICY GOVERNMENT SPENDING HOME OWNERSHIP HOST COUNTRIES HOUSEHOLD DEBT HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD INCOMES HOUSEHOLD WEALTH HOUSEHOLD WELFARE HOUSING LOANS HUMAN CAPITAL INCOME FLOWS INCOME SHOCK INCOME SHOCKS INDEBTED HOUSEHOLDS INDEBTEDNESS INFLATION INFLATION RISKS INFORMAL CREDIT INSURANCE INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATE RISKS INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL BANKING INTERNATIONAL FINANCE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL STATISTICS INVENTORIES INVESTMENT PROJECTS LABOR MARKET LIABILITY LIABILITY SIDE LIMITED ACCESS LIQUIDITY LIQUIDITY PROBLEMS LIQUIDITY RISK LIQUIDITY RISKS LIVING STANDARDS LOAN LOAN DELINQUENCY LOCAL CURRENCIES LOCAL CURRENCY MACROECONOMIC CRISES MACROECONOMIC STABILITY MARKET CONDITIONS MARKET PRICES MARKET PRICING MATURITY MATURITY MISMATCHES MICRO DATA MIGRANT LABOR MONETARY FUND MONETARY POLICY MORTGAGE MORTGAGE DEBT MORTGAGE LOANS MORTGAGES MUTUAL FUND MUTUAL FUNDS NATIONAL BANK OIL PRICE PENSION PENSION FUND PENSION FUNDS PENSION PROVISION PENSION SYSTEM PENSION SYSTEMS PENSIONS POLICY RESPONSE POLICY RESPONSES POLITICAL ECONOMY PORTFOLIO PORTFOLIO RISK PRICE CHANGES PRICE MOVEMENTS PRIVATE CAPITAL PRIVATE CREDIT PUBLIC FINANCES PUBLIC INVESTMENTS RECESSION REMITTANCE REMITTANCES RESERVES RETURNS RISK AVERSION RISK MITIGATION SAFETY NET SAFETY NETS SAVINGS SECONDARY MARKET SOCIAL CAPITAL SOLVENCY SOVEREIGN BOND STANDARD ASSET STOCKS TRADE BALANCE TRADE CREDITS TRADING UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE UNION VALUATION VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS WEALTH EFFECT WEALTH EFFECTS The financial crisis threatens the welfare of about 160 million people in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region who are poor or are just above the poverty line. Using pre-crisis household data along with aggregate macroeconomic outturns to simulate the impact of the crisis on households, transmitted via credit market shocks, price shocks, and income shocks, this report finds that adverse effects are widespread and that poor and non-poor households alike are vulnerable. By 2010, for the region as a whole, some 11 million more people will likely be in poverty and over 23 million more people will find themselves just above the poverty line because of the crisis. The aggregate results mask the heterogeneity of impact within countries, including the concentration of the poverty impact in selected economic sectors. Meanwhile, stress tests on household indebtedness in selected countries suggest that ongoing macroeconomic shocks will expand the pool of households unable to service their debt, many of them from among the ranks of relatively richer households. In fact, already there are rising household loan delinquency rates. Finally, there is evidence that the food and fuel crisis is not over and a new round of price increases, via currency adjustments, will have substantial effects on net consumers. Lessons from last year's food crisis suggest that the poor are the worst hit, as many of the poor in Albania, Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan, for example, are net food consumers, with limited access to agricultural assets and inputs. The resilience of households to macroeconomic shocks ultimately depends upon the economy's institutional readiness, the flexibility of the economic policy regime, and the ability of the population to adjust. However, compared with previous crises, the scope for households to engage in their traditional coping strategies may be more limited. Fiscal policy responses in the short-term are also constrained by rapidly falling revenues. Governments in ECA have to make difficult choices over what spending items to protect and what items to cut, social protection programs to reform and scale-up, and new interventions to mitigate the impact of the crisis. 2012-03-19T17:24:43Z 2012-03-19T17:24:43Z 2009-09-17 http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000333037_20090924233757 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3110 English CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling Europe and Central Asia |