Understanding the Economic Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Policies on Shipping : What Is the State of the Art of Current Modeling Approaches?
The International Maritime Organization's initial strategy on reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from ships stipulates that the international shipping sector should assess the impacts on states prior to adoption of the mitigation measures i...
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2019
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31137 |
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okr-10986-311372019-01-10T05:10:41Z Understanding the Economic Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Policies on Shipping : What Is the State of the Art of Current Modeling Approaches? Halim, Ronald A. Smith, Tristan Englert, Dominik INTERNATIONAL MARITIME ORGANIZATION GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TRANSPORT SHIPPING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT MODELLING CARBON TAX INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT TRANSPORT CARBON PRICING TRADE TRANSPORT COSTS The International Maritime Organization's initial strategy on reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from ships stipulates that the international shipping sector should assess the impacts on states prior to adoption of the mitigation measures included in the strategy. This assessment should be undertaken as a matter of urgency, and disproportionately negative impacts should be assessed and addressed as appropriate. This paper aims to contribute to this discussion by reviewing the state-of-the-art research on the economic impacts of greenhouse gas mitigation measures on states, using model-based analysis. Specifically, the paper: (i) identifies four areas of economic impacts and their relationships, (ii) compiles the latest findings on the estimated magnitudes of these impacts, and (iii) presents relevant modeling approaches along with best practices for selecting and applying these approaches in impact assessments.The paper concludes that introducing greenhouse gas mitigation measures, such as carbon prices applied to bunker fuels in the range of 10 to 50 USD/ton of carbon dioxide, might increase maritime transport costs by 0.4 percent to 16 percent. However, this would only marginally increase the import prices of goods (by less than 1 percent). For transport choices, the increased cost of maritime transport induced by greenhouse gas mitigation measures might only slightly reduce the share of maritime transport, by 0.16 percent globally. Furthermore, a global carbon tax applied to all transport modes might stimulate a shift toward maritime transport from all other modes. The impacts of a carbon price in the range of 10 to 90 USD/ton of carbon dioxide on national economies are expected to be modest (−0.002 percent to −1 percent of GDP). 2019-01-09T22:38:47Z 2019-01-09T22:38:47Z 2019-01 Working Paper http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31137 English Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8695 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
INTERNATIONAL MARITIME ORGANIZATION GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TRANSPORT SHIPPING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT MODELLING CARBON TAX INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT TRANSPORT CARBON PRICING TRADE TRANSPORT COSTS |
| spellingShingle |
INTERNATIONAL MARITIME ORGANIZATION GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TRANSPORT SHIPPING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT MODELLING CARBON TAX INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT TRANSPORT CARBON PRICING TRADE TRANSPORT COSTS Halim, Ronald A. Smith, Tristan Englert, Dominik Understanding the Economic Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Policies on Shipping : What Is the State of the Art of Current Modeling Approaches? |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8695 |
| description |
The International Maritime
Organization's initial strategy on reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions from ships stipulates that the
international shipping sector should assess the impacts on
states prior to adoption of the mitigation measures included
in the strategy. This assessment should be undertaken as a
matter of urgency, and disproportionately negative impacts
should be assessed and addressed as appropriate. This paper
aims to contribute to this discussion by reviewing the
state-of-the-art research on the economic impacts of
greenhouse gas mitigation measures on states, using
model-based analysis. Specifically, the paper: (i)
identifies four areas of economic impacts and their
relationships, (ii) compiles the latest findings on the
estimated magnitudes of these impacts, and (iii) presents
relevant modeling approaches along with best practices for
selecting and applying these approaches in impact
assessments.The paper concludes that introducing greenhouse
gas mitigation measures, such as carbon prices applied to
bunker fuels in the range of 10 to 50 USD/ton of carbon
dioxide, might increase maritime transport costs by 0.4
percent to 16 percent. However, this would only marginally
increase the import prices of goods (by less than 1
percent). For transport choices, the increased cost of
maritime transport induced by greenhouse gas mitigation
measures might only slightly reduce the share of maritime
transport, by 0.16 percent globally. Furthermore, a global
carbon tax applied to all transport modes might stimulate a
shift toward maritime transport from all other modes. The
impacts of a carbon price in the range of 10 to 90 USD/ton
of carbon dioxide on national economies are expected to be
modest (−0.002 percent to −1 percent of GDP). |
| format |
Working Paper |
| author |
Halim, Ronald A. Smith, Tristan Englert, Dominik |
| author_facet |
Halim, Ronald A. Smith, Tristan Englert, Dominik |
| author_sort |
Halim, Ronald A. |
| title |
Understanding the Economic Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Policies on Shipping : What Is the State of the Art of Current Modeling Approaches? |
| title_short |
Understanding the Economic Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Policies on Shipping : What Is the State of the Art of Current Modeling Approaches? |
| title_full |
Understanding the Economic Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Policies on Shipping : What Is the State of the Art of Current Modeling Approaches? |
| title_fullStr |
Understanding the Economic Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Policies on Shipping : What Is the State of the Art of Current Modeling Approaches? |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Understanding the Economic Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Policies on Shipping : What Is the State of the Art of Current Modeling Approaches? |
| title_sort |
understanding the economic impacts of greenhouse gas mitigation policies on shipping : what is the state of the art of current modeling approaches? |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2019 |
| url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31137 |
| _version_ |
1764473623766106112 |