Meeting the Sustainable Development Goal for Electricity Access : Using a Multi-Scenario Approach to Understand the Cost Drivers of Power Infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa
This paper explores the investments needed to achieve universal access to electricity in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2030, and the additional operation and maintenance costs these investments entail. It also explores the drivers of these costs, by explor...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2019
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/743251550243810604/Meeting-the-Sustainable-Development-Goal-for-Electricity-Access-Using-a-Multi-Scenario-Approach-to-Understand-the-Cost-Drivers-of-Power-Infrastructure-in-Sub-Saharan-Africa http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31310 |
| Summary: | This paper explores the investments
needed to achieve universal access to electricity in
Sub-Saharan Africa by 2030, and the additional operation and
maintenance costs these investments entail. It also explores
the drivers of these costs, by exploring hundreds of
scenarios that combine alternative assumptions on the level
of service targeted, population growth, urbanization,
industrial demand, and technology cost. The main driver of
electrification costs is found to be the tier of service
offered to newly connected households. The annual investment
required to reach universal access varies between US$14.5
billion per year on average for the basic access scenarios
(0.7 percent of the region's gross domestic product per
year over the period) and US$22.7 billion on average for the
high-quality scenarios (1 percent of gross domestic
product). In the basic access scenario, costs depend mostly
on industrial demand, which takes a large share of total
demand. In the high-quality scenarios, costs depend on
urbanization rates, as it is cheaper to connect urban
households to the grid. Investment costs are not sufficient
to provide reliable service, and when operations and
maintenance are accounted for, total costs increase to
US$39.7 billion on average for the basic scenarios and
US$61.5 billion on average for the high-quality scenarios. |
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