Meeting the Sustainable Development Goal for Electricity Access : Using a Multi-Scenario Approach to Understand the Cost Drivers of Power Infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa
This paper explores the investments needed to achieve universal access to electricity in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2030, and the additional operation and maintenance costs these investments entail. It also explores the drivers of these costs, by explor...
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2019
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/743251550243810604/Meeting-the-Sustainable-Development-Goal-for-Electricity-Access-Using-a-Multi-Scenario-Approach-to-Understand-the-Cost-Drivers-of-Power-Infrastructure-in-Sub-Saharan-Africa http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31310 |
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okr-10986-313102021-11-22T12:20:58Z Meeting the Sustainable Development Goal for Electricity Access : Using a Multi-Scenario Approach to Understand the Cost Drivers of Power Infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa Nicolas, Claire Samson, Benjamin Rozenberg, Julie ELECTRIFICATION ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS ELECTRICITY ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT This paper explores the investments needed to achieve universal access to electricity in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2030, and the additional operation and maintenance costs these investments entail. It also explores the drivers of these costs, by exploring hundreds of scenarios that combine alternative assumptions on the level of service targeted, population growth, urbanization, industrial demand, and technology cost. The main driver of electrification costs is found to be the tier of service offered to newly connected households. The annual investment required to reach universal access varies between US$14.5 billion per year on average for the basic access scenarios (0.7 percent of the region's gross domestic product per year over the period) and US$22.7 billion on average for the high-quality scenarios (1 percent of gross domestic product). In the basic access scenario, costs depend mostly on industrial demand, which takes a large share of total demand. In the high-quality scenarios, costs depend on urbanization rates, as it is cheaper to connect urban households to the grid. Investment costs are not sufficient to provide reliable service, and when operations and maintenance are accounted for, total costs increase to US$39.7 billion on average for the basic scenarios and US$61.5 billion on average for the high-quality scenarios. 2019-02-21T15:53:03Z 2019-02-21T15:53:03Z 2019-02 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/743251550243810604/Meeting-the-Sustainable-Development-Goal-for-Electricity-Access-Using-a-Multi-Scenario-Approach-to-Understand-the-Cost-Drivers-of-Power-Infrastructure-in-Sub-Saharan-Africa http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31310 English Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8747 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Africa Sub-Saharan Africa |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
ELECTRIFICATION ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS ELECTRICITY ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT |
| spellingShingle |
ELECTRIFICATION ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS ELECTRICITY ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT Nicolas, Claire Samson, Benjamin Rozenberg, Julie Meeting the Sustainable Development Goal for Electricity Access : Using a Multi-Scenario Approach to Understand the Cost Drivers of Power Infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| geographic_facet |
Africa Sub-Saharan Africa |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8747 |
| description |
This paper explores the investments
needed to achieve universal access to electricity in
Sub-Saharan Africa by 2030, and the additional operation and
maintenance costs these investments entail. It also explores
the drivers of these costs, by exploring hundreds of
scenarios that combine alternative assumptions on the level
of service targeted, population growth, urbanization,
industrial demand, and technology cost. The main driver of
electrification costs is found to be the tier of service
offered to newly connected households. The annual investment
required to reach universal access varies between US$14.5
billion per year on average for the basic access scenarios
(0.7 percent of the region's gross domestic product per
year over the period) and US$22.7 billion on average for the
high-quality scenarios (1 percent of gross domestic
product). In the basic access scenario, costs depend mostly
on industrial demand, which takes a large share of total
demand. In the high-quality scenarios, costs depend on
urbanization rates, as it is cheaper to connect urban
households to the grid. Investment costs are not sufficient
to provide reliable service, and when operations and
maintenance are accounted for, total costs increase to
US$39.7 billion on average for the basic scenarios and
US$61.5 billion on average for the high-quality scenarios. |
| format |
Working Paper |
| author |
Nicolas, Claire Samson, Benjamin Rozenberg, Julie |
| author_facet |
Nicolas, Claire Samson, Benjamin Rozenberg, Julie |
| author_sort |
Nicolas, Claire |
| title |
Meeting the Sustainable Development Goal for Electricity Access : Using a Multi-Scenario Approach to Understand the Cost Drivers of Power Infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_short |
Meeting the Sustainable Development Goal for Electricity Access : Using a Multi-Scenario Approach to Understand the Cost Drivers of Power Infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_full |
Meeting the Sustainable Development Goal for Electricity Access : Using a Multi-Scenario Approach to Understand the Cost Drivers of Power Infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_fullStr |
Meeting the Sustainable Development Goal for Electricity Access : Using a Multi-Scenario Approach to Understand the Cost Drivers of Power Infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Meeting the Sustainable Development Goal for Electricity Access : Using a Multi-Scenario Approach to Understand the Cost Drivers of Power Infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_sort |
meeting the sustainable development goal for electricity access : using a multi-scenario approach to understand the cost drivers of power infrastructure in sub-saharan africa |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2019 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/743251550243810604/Meeting-the-Sustainable-Development-Goal-for-Electricity-Access-Using-a-Multi-Scenario-Approach-to-Understand-the-Cost-Drivers-of-Power-Infrastructure-in-Sub-Saharan-Africa http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31310 |
| _version_ |
1764474033991057408 |