Scenarios : Leapfrog, Lock-in, and Lopsided
This paper presents the details of three scenarios -- leapfrog, lock-in, and lopsided -- that describe an illustrative set of technological states. Based largely on expert interviews, the paper argues that the technology outcomes are heavily attrib...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2019
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/739301550244597747/Scenarios-Leapfrog-Lock-in-and-Lopsided http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31311 |
| Summary: | This paper presents the details of three
scenarios -- leapfrog, lock-in, and lopsided -- that
describe an illustrative set of technological states. Based
largely on expert interviews, the paper argues that the
technology outcomes are heavily attributable to the actions
(or in some cases, inaction) of policy makers and
incumbents. For each scenario, the paper presents
descriptive levels of technology achievement and market
outcomes for the energy, transport, and water sectors. One
of the central differentiating features of the three
scenarios is the extent to which governments perform their
roles as enabling, that is, whether the policies are
designed to help or hinder innovations that improve service
levels, and distributive, that is, whether the policies are
designed to ensure that multiple segments of society reap
the rewards of innovation. A question raised as part of that
theme is how countries can avoid lock-in, or how they might
become derailed into a lopsided scenario. Some institutional
behavioral markers of the scenarios were identified in these
discussions and are noted in the paper. It is important to
recognize that multiple combinations of these behaviors can
lead to a lock-in or lopsided scenario. In addition to
describing the scenarios in detail, the paper discusses the
rationale for their creation, along with a brief discussion
on the nature of uncertainty. The paper also describes the
methodology employed in the creation of the scenarios,
including expert interview methods and a day-long workshop. |
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