Scenarios : Leapfrog, Lock-in, and Lopsided
This paper presents the details of three scenarios -- leapfrog, lock-in, and lopsided -- that describe an illustrative set of technological states. Based largely on expert interviews, the paper argues that the technology outcomes are heavily attrib...
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2019
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/739301550244597747/Scenarios-Leapfrog-Lock-in-and-Lopsided http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31311 |
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okr-10986-313112022-09-18T12:16:25Z Scenarios : Leapfrog, Lock-in, and Lopsided Leifman, Michael Meir Leifman, Michael M. TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT ENERGY TRANSPORT WATER TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT INNOVATION SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS FLOOD RISK This paper presents the details of three scenarios -- leapfrog, lock-in, and lopsided -- that describe an illustrative set of technological states. Based largely on expert interviews, the paper argues that the technology outcomes are heavily attributable to the actions (or in some cases, inaction) of policy makers and incumbents. For each scenario, the paper presents descriptive levels of technology achievement and market outcomes for the energy, transport, and water sectors. One of the central differentiating features of the three scenarios is the extent to which governments perform their roles as enabling, that is, whether the policies are designed to help or hinder innovations that improve service levels, and distributive, that is, whether the policies are designed to ensure that multiple segments of society reap the rewards of innovation. A question raised as part of that theme is how countries can avoid lock-in, or how they might become derailed into a lopsided scenario. Some institutional behavioral markers of the scenarios were identified in these discussions and are noted in the paper. It is important to recognize that multiple combinations of these behaviors can lead to a lock-in or lopsided scenario. In addition to describing the scenarios in detail, the paper discusses the rationale for their creation, along with a brief discussion on the nature of uncertainty. The paper also describes the methodology employed in the creation of the scenarios, including expert interview methods and a day-long workshop. 2019-02-21T16:00:51Z 2019-02-21T16:00:51Z 2019-02 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/739301550244597747/Scenarios-Leapfrog-Lock-in-and-Lopsided http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31311 English Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8748 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT ENERGY TRANSPORT WATER TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT INNOVATION SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS FLOOD RISK |
| spellingShingle |
TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT ENERGY TRANSPORT WATER TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT INNOVATION SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS FLOOD RISK Leifman, Michael Meir Leifman, Michael M. Scenarios : Leapfrog, Lock-in, and Lopsided |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8748 |
| description |
This paper presents the details of three
scenarios -- leapfrog, lock-in, and lopsided -- that
describe an illustrative set of technological states. Based
largely on expert interviews, the paper argues that the
technology outcomes are heavily attributable to the actions
(or in some cases, inaction) of policy makers and
incumbents. For each scenario, the paper presents
descriptive levels of technology achievement and market
outcomes for the energy, transport, and water sectors. One
of the central differentiating features of the three
scenarios is the extent to which governments perform their
roles as enabling, that is, whether the policies are
designed to help or hinder innovations that improve service
levels, and distributive, that is, whether the policies are
designed to ensure that multiple segments of society reap
the rewards of innovation. A question raised as part of that
theme is how countries can avoid lock-in, or how they might
become derailed into a lopsided scenario. Some institutional
behavioral markers of the scenarios were identified in these
discussions and are noted in the paper. It is important to
recognize that multiple combinations of these behaviors can
lead to a lock-in or lopsided scenario. In addition to
describing the scenarios in detail, the paper discusses the
rationale for their creation, along with a brief discussion
on the nature of uncertainty. The paper also describes the
methodology employed in the creation of the scenarios,
including expert interview methods and a day-long workshop. |
| format |
Working Paper |
| author |
Leifman, Michael Meir Leifman, Michael M. |
| author_facet |
Leifman, Michael Meir Leifman, Michael M. |
| author_sort |
Leifman, Michael Meir |
| title |
Scenarios : Leapfrog, Lock-in, and Lopsided |
| title_short |
Scenarios : Leapfrog, Lock-in, and Lopsided |
| title_full |
Scenarios : Leapfrog, Lock-in, and Lopsided |
| title_fullStr |
Scenarios : Leapfrog, Lock-in, and Lopsided |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Scenarios : Leapfrog, Lock-in, and Lopsided |
| title_sort |
scenarios : leapfrog, lock-in, and lopsided |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2019 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/739301550244597747/Scenarios-Leapfrog-Lock-in-and-Lopsided http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31311 |
| _version_ |
1764474036559020032 |