South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2019 : Exports Wanted

South Asia remained the fastest growing region in the world last year, but growth remained driven by domestic demand – and not exports – which resulted in another year of double-digit volume growth of imports. The value of imports was further pushed up by rising oil prices. The widening current acco...

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Main Author:	World Bank
Format:	Serial
Language:	English
Published:	Washington, DC: World Bank 2019
Subjects:	ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC RISKS EXTERNAL VULNERABILITY FISCAL POLICY INFLATION AND PRICES INVESTMENT MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND OUTLOOK TRADE
Online Access:	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31498

id	okr-10986-31498
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-314982021-04-23T14:05:04Z South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2019 : Exports Wanted World Bank ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC RISKS EXTERNAL VULNERABILITY FISCAL POLICY INFLATION AND PRICES INVESTMENT MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND OUTLOOK TRADE South Asia remained the fastest growing region in the world last year, but growth remained driven by domestic demand – and not exports – which resulted in another year of double-digit volume growth of imports. The value of imports was further pushed up by rising oil prices. The widening current account deficits became more difficult to finance and these tensions triggered capital outflows, depreciation pressures, increases in credit default swap spreads, and falling stock prices. In recent months, however, the data shows a more positive picture. The growth outlook for South Asia assumes that the recent acceleration of export growth continues and that import growth slows. Under these conditions, GDP growth is expected to accelerate. Under current circumstances fiscal tightening is appropriate, not only to make government debt more sustainable, but also to bring the economy back into balance, and thus become less vulnerable to deteriorating conditions in international financial markets. Using a gravity model, we show that South Asian countries export only a third of their potential. If countries export closer to potential, not only would short-term adjustments be easier, but also the long-term growth potential would be higher. Closing the export gap is an essential step in addressing both short-term and long-term macroeconomic challenges in South Asia. 2019-04-03T20:47:15Z 2019-04-03T20:47:15Z 2019-04-07 Serial 978-1-4648-1407-5 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31498 English CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank Washington, DC: World Bank Publications & Research :: Publication Publications & Research South Asia South Asia Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC RISKS EXTERNAL VULNERABILITY FISCAL POLICY INFLATION AND PRICES INVESTMENT MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND OUTLOOK TRADE
spellingShingle	ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC RISKS EXTERNAL VULNERABILITY FISCAL POLICY INFLATION AND PRICES INVESTMENT MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND OUTLOOK TRADE World Bank South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2019 : Exports Wanted
geographic_facet	South Asia South Asia Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka
description	South Asia remained the fastest growing region in the world last year, but growth remained driven by domestic demand – and not exports – which resulted in another year of double-digit volume growth of imports. The value of imports was further pushed up by rising oil prices. The widening current account deficits became more difficult to finance and these tensions triggered capital outflows, depreciation pressures, increases in credit default swap spreads, and falling stock prices. In recent months, however, the data shows a more positive picture. The growth outlook for South Asia assumes that the recent acceleration of export growth continues and that import growth slows. Under these conditions, GDP growth is expected to accelerate. Under current circumstances fiscal tightening is appropriate, not only to make government debt more sustainable, but also to bring the economy back into balance, and thus become less vulnerable to deteriorating conditions in international financial markets. Using a gravity model, we show that South Asian countries export only a third of their potential. If countries export closer to potential, not only would short-term adjustments be easier, but also the long-term growth potential would be higher. Closing the export gap is an essential step in addressing both short-term and long-term macroeconomic challenges in South Asia.
format	Serial
author	World Bank
author_facet	World Bank
author_sort	World Bank
title	South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2019 : Exports Wanted
title_short	South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2019 : Exports Wanted
title_full	South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2019 : Exports Wanted
title_fullStr	South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2019 : Exports Wanted
title_full_unstemmed	South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2019 : Exports Wanted
title_sort	south asia economic focus, spring 2019 : exports wanted
publisher	Washington, DC: World Bank
publishDate	2019
url	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31498
_version_	1764474462038654976

South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2019 : Exports Wanted

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