Implications for Provincial Economies of Meeting China's NDC through an Emission Trading Scheme : A Regional CGE Modeling Analysis
This study analyzes the potential impacts of a national emission trading scheme on provincial economies in China of meeting China's emission reduction pledges, the Nationally Determined Contributions announced under the Paris Agreement. The st...
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2019
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/936771561121209039/Implications-for-Provincial-Economies-of-Meeting-Chinas-NDC-through-an-Emission-Trading-Scheme-A-Regional-CGE-Modeling-Analysis http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31974 |
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okr-10986-319742022-09-05T00:20:27Z Implications for Provincial Economies of Meeting China's NDC through an Emission Trading Scheme : A Regional CGE Modeling Analysis Pang, Jun Timilsina, Govinda CARBON POLICY CARBON PRICING EMISSIONS TRADING RENEWABLE ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION CGE MODEL This study analyzes the potential impacts of a national emission trading scheme on provincial economies in China of meeting China's emission reduction pledges, the Nationally Determined Contributions announced under the Paris Agreement. The study developed a multiregional, multisectoral, recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model and calibrated it with the latest provincial-level social accounting matrices (2012). The study shows that meeting China's Nationally Determined Contributions through an emission trading scheme would reduce almost 30 percent of the emission reduction from the business as usual scenario in 2030. If the baseline is corrected based on information from a bottom-up energy sector model, TIMES, the required reduction of emissions from the baseline in 2030 drops by half, to 15 percent. At the national level, the emission trading scheme would cause a 1.2 to 1.5 percent reduction in gross domestic product from the business as usual scenario in 2030. If the baseline is corrected, the impact on gross domestic product drops by two-thirds. The emission trading scheme would cause some provincial economies to gain and others to lose. The economic impacts are highly sensitive to the allowance allocation rules. Not only the magnitudes, but also the directions of the economic impacts alter when the allocation rules change. The provinces that rely on coal mining or coal-intensive manufacturing industries are found to experience relatively larger economic losses irrespective of the allowance allocation rules. 2019-06-26T19:25:16Z 2019-06-26T19:25:16Z 2019-06 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/936771561121209039/Implications-for-Provincial-Economies-of-Meeting-Chinas-NDC-through-an-Emission-Trading-Scheme-A-Regional-CGE-Modeling-Analysis http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31974 English Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8909 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper East Asia and Pacific China |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
CARBON POLICY CARBON PRICING EMISSIONS TRADING RENEWABLE ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION CGE MODEL |
| spellingShingle |
CARBON POLICY CARBON PRICING EMISSIONS TRADING RENEWABLE ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION CGE MODEL Pang, Jun Timilsina, Govinda Implications for Provincial Economies of Meeting China's NDC through an Emission Trading Scheme : A Regional CGE Modeling Analysis |
| geographic_facet |
East Asia and Pacific China |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8909 |
| description |
This study analyzes the potential
impacts of a national emission trading scheme on provincial
economies in China of meeting China's emission
reduction pledges, the Nationally Determined Contributions
announced under the Paris Agreement. The study developed a
multiregional, multisectoral, recursive-dynamic computable
general equilibrium model and calibrated it with the latest
provincial-level social accounting matrices (2012). The
study shows that meeting China's Nationally Determined
Contributions through an emission trading scheme would
reduce almost 30 percent of the emission reduction from the
business as usual scenario in 2030. If the baseline is
corrected based on information from a bottom-up energy
sector model, TIMES, the required reduction of emissions
from the baseline in 2030 drops by half, to 15 percent. At
the national level, the emission trading scheme would cause
a 1.2 to 1.5 percent reduction in gross domestic product
from the business as usual scenario in 2030. If the baseline
is corrected, the impact on gross domestic product drops by
two-thirds. The emission trading scheme would cause some
provincial economies to gain and others to lose. The
economic impacts are highly sensitive to the allowance
allocation rules. Not only the magnitudes, but also the
directions of the economic impacts alter when the allocation
rules change. The provinces that rely on coal mining or
coal-intensive manufacturing industries are found to
experience relatively larger economic losses irrespective of
the allowance allocation rules. |
| format |
Working Paper |
| author |
Pang, Jun Timilsina, Govinda |
| author_facet |
Pang, Jun Timilsina, Govinda |
| author_sort |
Pang, Jun |
| title |
Implications for Provincial Economies of Meeting China's NDC through an Emission Trading Scheme : A Regional CGE Modeling Analysis |
| title_short |
Implications for Provincial Economies of Meeting China's NDC through an Emission Trading Scheme : A Regional CGE Modeling Analysis |
| title_full |
Implications for Provincial Economies of Meeting China's NDC through an Emission Trading Scheme : A Regional CGE Modeling Analysis |
| title_fullStr |
Implications for Provincial Economies of Meeting China's NDC through an Emission Trading Scheme : A Regional CGE Modeling Analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Implications for Provincial Economies of Meeting China's NDC through an Emission Trading Scheme : A Regional CGE Modeling Analysis |
| title_sort |
implications for provincial economies of meeting china's ndc through an emission trading scheme : a regional cge modeling analysis |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2019 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/936771561121209039/Implications-for-Provincial-Economies-of-Meeting-Chinas-NDC-through-an-Emission-Trading-Scheme-A-Regional-CGE-Modeling-Analysis http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31974 |
| _version_ |
1764475496449441792 |