Afghanistan Development Update, June 2019 : Building Confidence Amid Uncertainty
Afghanistan faced severe economic headwinds in 2018, with the economy growing by an estimated 1.8 percent. Slow growth was driven by two major factors. Firstly, severe drought had a strong negative impact on agricultural production. Agricultural gr...
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2019
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/546581556051841507/Building-Confidence-Amid-Uncertainty http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32144 |
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okr-10986-321442021-05-25T09:26:30Z Afghanistan Development Update, June 2019 : Building Confidence Amid Uncertainty World Bank ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT REAL SECTOR MONETARY POLICY FINANCIAL SECTOR TRADE BALANCE CURRENT ACCOUNT FISCAL TRENDS FISCAL POLICY FISCAL ADJUSTMENT REVENUE MOBILIZATION Afghanistan faced severe economic headwinds in 2018, with the economy growing by an estimated 1.8 percent. Slow growth was driven by two major factors. Firstly, severe drought had a strong negative impact on agricultural production. Agricultural growth slowed to 0.8 percent as low snowfall during late 2017 and early 2018 led to the loss of grain crops and livestock productivity. Secondly, business and investor confidence deteriorated significantly in the context of elevated uncertainty around: i) the level and duration of international security assistance; ii) the outcome of upcoming presidential elections (now delayed until September); iii) prospects of continued or worsening election-related violence (civilian deaths reached their highest level since 2001); and iv) ongoing peace negotiations with the Taliban. Real GDP growth is expected to have accelerated during the first half of 2019, mainly driven by the easing of drought conditions and improved agricultural production. Intensifying political uncertainties, however, are expected to have continued to dampen private sector confidence and investment. Poverty is estimated to have increased and deepened. The rate of economic growth substantially lagged population growth, leading to declining per capita incomes. The drought negatively impacted livelihoods of many of the 82 percent of the poor living in rural areas, including those reliant on poppy cultivation (poppy production declined by 30 percent). Reflecting widespread hardship, drought-induced displacement reached record levels of 298,582 individuals, mainly to urban areas in adjacent provinces. 2019-07-29T21:45:25Z 2019-07-29T21:45:25Z 2019-07 Report http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/546581556051841507/Building-Confidence-Amid-Uncertainty http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32144 English CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling Economic & Sector Work South Asia Afghanistan |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT REAL SECTOR MONETARY POLICY FINANCIAL SECTOR TRADE BALANCE CURRENT ACCOUNT FISCAL TRENDS FISCAL POLICY FISCAL ADJUSTMENT REVENUE MOBILIZATION |
| spellingShingle |
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT REAL SECTOR MONETARY POLICY FINANCIAL SECTOR TRADE BALANCE CURRENT ACCOUNT FISCAL TRENDS FISCAL POLICY FISCAL ADJUSTMENT REVENUE MOBILIZATION World Bank Afghanistan Development Update, June 2019 : Building Confidence Amid Uncertainty |
| geographic_facet |
South Asia Afghanistan |
| description |
Afghanistan faced severe economic
headwinds in 2018, with the economy growing by an estimated
1.8 percent. Slow growth was driven by two major factors.
Firstly, severe drought had a strong negative impact on
agricultural production. Agricultural growth slowed to 0.8
percent as low snowfall during late 2017 and early 2018 led
to the loss of grain crops and livestock productivity.
Secondly, business and investor confidence deteriorated
significantly in the context of elevated uncertainty around:
i) the level and duration of international security
assistance; ii) the outcome of upcoming presidential
elections (now delayed until September); iii) prospects of
continued or worsening election-related violence (civilian
deaths reached their highest level since 2001); and iv)
ongoing peace negotiations with the Taliban. Real GDP growth
is expected to have accelerated during the first half of
2019, mainly driven by the easing of drought conditions and
improved agricultural production. Intensifying political
uncertainties, however, are expected to have continued to
dampen private sector confidence and investment. Poverty is
estimated to have increased and deepened. The rate of
economic growth substantially lagged population growth,
leading to declining per capita incomes. The drought
negatively impacted livelihoods of many of the 82 percent of
the poor living in rural areas, including those reliant on
poppy cultivation (poppy production declined by 30 percent).
Reflecting widespread hardship, drought-induced displacement
reached record levels of 298,582 individuals, mainly to
urban areas in adjacent provinces. |
| format |
Report |
| author |
World Bank |
| author_facet |
World Bank |
| author_sort |
World Bank |
| title |
Afghanistan Development Update, June 2019 : Building Confidence Amid Uncertainty |
| title_short |
Afghanistan Development Update, June 2019 : Building Confidence Amid Uncertainty |
| title_full |
Afghanistan Development Update, June 2019 : Building Confidence Amid Uncertainty |
| title_fullStr |
Afghanistan Development Update, June 2019 : Building Confidence Amid Uncertainty |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Afghanistan Development Update, June 2019 : Building Confidence Amid Uncertainty |
| title_sort |
afghanistan development update, june 2019 : building confidence amid uncertainty |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2019 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/546581556051841507/Building-Confidence-Amid-Uncertainty http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32144 |
| _version_ |
1764475888876912640 |