Guyana - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis
The risk of external and overall debt distress for Guyana remains moderate, but debt dynamics will improve significantly with the start of oil production in 2020. All external debt indicators remain below the relevant indicative vulnerability thres...
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2019
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/535231570770403609/Guyana-Joint-World-Bank-IMF-Debt-Sustainability-Analysis-September-2019 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32559 |
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okr-10986-325592021-05-25T09:28:37Z Guyana - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis World Bank International Monetary Fund DEBT SERVICE BURDEN PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT CONTINGENT LIABILITY EXTERNAL DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS RISK ASSESSMENT DEBT DISTRESS PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT MACROECONOMIC PROJECTION The risk of external and overall debt distress for Guyana remains moderate, but debt dynamics will improve significantly with the start of oil production in 2020. All external debt indicators remain below the relevant indicative vulnerability thresholds under the baseline scenario, which incorporates the average long-term effects of oil on economic growth, fiscal balance, and current account position. The PV of external debt-to-GDP is projected to decline to 3 percent over the long-term as the need for external borrowing is offset by the accumulation of external assets. Stress tests indicate the susceptibility of Guyana’s external public debt in a very extreme shock which combines simultaneous shocks to real GDP growth, primary balance, exports, other flows (current transfers and FDI), and nominal exchange rate depreciation, as well as second order effects arising from interactions among these shocks. The combined effects of these shocks and their second order effects cause temporary but significant breaches in the external debt thresholds, prompting a moderate risk rating. Nonetheless, Guyana has substantial space to absorb these shocks, reflecting the current low level of external debt. Guyana’s medium- and long-term outlook is very favorable given the incoming oil production and revenues, which will eventually underpin fiscal surpluses and a reduction in external indebtedness. The authorities reiterated their commitment in preserving fiscal discipline. 2019-10-17T18:00:55Z 2019-10-17T18:00:55Z 2019-09 Report http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/535231570770403609/Guyana-Joint-World-Bank-IMF-Debt-Sustainability-Analysis-September-2019 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32559 English CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Economic & Sector Work Economic & Sector Work :: Debt and Creditworthiness Study Latin America & Caribbean Guyana |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
DEBT SERVICE BURDEN PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT CONTINGENT LIABILITY EXTERNAL DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS RISK ASSESSMENT DEBT DISTRESS PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT MACROECONOMIC PROJECTION |
| spellingShingle |
DEBT SERVICE BURDEN PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT CONTINGENT LIABILITY EXTERNAL DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS RISK ASSESSMENT DEBT DISTRESS PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT MACROECONOMIC PROJECTION World Bank International Monetary Fund Guyana - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis |
| geographic_facet |
Latin America & Caribbean Guyana |
| description |
The risk of external and overall debt
distress for Guyana remains moderate, but debt dynamics will
improve significantly with the start of oil production in
2020. All external debt indicators remain below the relevant
indicative vulnerability thresholds under the baseline
scenario, which incorporates the average long-term effects
of oil on economic growth, fiscal balance, and current
account position. The PV of external debt-to-GDP is
projected to decline to 3 percent over the long-term as the
need for external borrowing is offset by the accumulation of
external assets. Stress tests indicate the susceptibility of
Guyana’s external public debt in a very extreme shock which
combines simultaneous shocks to real GDP growth, primary
balance, exports, other flows (current transfers and FDI),
and nominal exchange rate depreciation, as well as second
order effects arising from interactions among these shocks.
The combined effects of these shocks and their second order
effects cause temporary but significant breaches in the
external debt thresholds, prompting a moderate risk rating.
Nonetheless, Guyana has substantial space to absorb these
shocks, reflecting the current low level of external debt.
Guyana’s medium- and long-term outlook is very favorable
given the incoming oil production and revenues, which will
eventually underpin fiscal surpluses and a reduction in
external indebtedness. The authorities reiterated their
commitment in preserving fiscal discipline. |
| format |
Report |
| author |
World Bank International Monetary Fund |
| author_facet |
World Bank International Monetary Fund |
| author_sort |
World Bank |
| title |
Guyana - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis |
| title_short |
Guyana - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis |
| title_full |
Guyana - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis |
| title_fullStr |
Guyana - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Guyana - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis |
| title_sort |
guyana - joint world bank-imf debt sustainability analysis |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2019 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/535231570770403609/Guyana-Joint-World-Bank-IMF-Debt-Sustainability-Analysis-September-2019 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32559 |
| _version_ |
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