Republic of Uzbekistan - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis

Republic of Uzbekistan - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis

Based on the Joint Bank-Fund Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Analysis (LIC-DSA), Uzbekistan has a low risk of debt distress, with debt burden indicators below relevant thresholds in the baseline and all stress scenarios. Over the medium term...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: World Bank, International Monetary Fund
Format: Report
Language:English
Published: World Bank, Washington, DC 2019
Subjects:
DEBT DISTRESS
DEBT SERVICE BURDEN
PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT
PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT
EXTERNAL DEBT
CONTINGENT LIABILITY
SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS
RISK ASSESSMENT
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTION
Online Access:http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/747221570772743399/Uzbekistan-Joint-World-Bank-IMF-Debt-Sustainability-Analysis-May-2019
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32574
Description
Summary:Based on the Joint Bank-Fund Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Analysis (LIC-DSA), Uzbekistan has a low risk of debt distress, with debt burden indicators below relevant thresholds in the baseline and all stress scenarios. Over the medium term, the public debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to increase moderately, while the total external debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to decline somewhat. In addition, large foreign exchange reserve buffers mitigate potential distress concerns. The debt sustainability analysis suggests that the most significant risks could result from worse-than-expected external flows (mostly lower remittances) and significantly lower exports. The government should carefully manage external borrowing to maintain Uzbekistan’s strong external position.

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