The Monsoon Shock in Rural Nepal : Panel Evidence from the Household Risk and Vulnerability Survey

Monsoon rainfall is a key driver of economic life in rural Nepal as well as a major source of income variability. In this paper, the authors use a newly collected 3-year panel data set, representative of rural Nepal, merged with global monthly prec...

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Main Authors: Jacoby, Hanan G., Walker, Thomas
Format: Report
Language:English
Published: World Bank, Washington, DC 2019
Subjects:
Online Access:http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/147481575970144562/The-Monsoon-Shock-in-Rural-Nepal-Panel-Evidence-from-the-Household-Risk-and-Vulnerability-Survey
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33078
id okr-10986-33078
recordtype oai_dc
spelling okr-10986-330782021-05-25T09:31:10Z The Monsoon Shock in Rural Nepal : Panel Evidence from the Household Risk and Vulnerability Survey Jacoby, Hanan G. Walker, Thomas RISK ASSESSMENT VULNERABILITY VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS RAINFALL MONSOON AGRICULTURE WEATHER EVENTS POVERTY Monsoon rainfall is a key driver of economic life in rural Nepal as well as a major source of income variability. In this paper, the authors use a newly collected 3-year panel data set, representative of rural Nepal, merged with global monthly precipitation data to investigate the nature of the monsoon shock and to quantify household vulnerability to it. The authors find that the impact of the monsoon shock is concentrated in communities where water-intensive paddy dominates wet season cultivation and, coincidently, where groundwater irrigates dry season cultivation. In these communities, household size, area cultivated, agricultural and non-agricultural income, and household per capita food consumption measured nine months after the wet season harvest, all decline in response to a negative monsoon rainfall shock. A one standard deviation fall in monsoon precipitation is estimated to reduce total income by 3.8 percent and lead to a 0.8 percent drop in food consumption for the average rural household, but these figures rise to 11.5 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively, for households in the most paddy-intensive communities. These results have implications for social protection policies, especially in the lowlands of Nepal. 2019-12-23T20:38:59Z 2019-12-23T20:38:59Z 2019-11-20 Report http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/147481575970144562/The-Monsoon-Shock-in-Rural-Nepal-Panel-Evidence-from-the-Household-Risk-and-Vulnerability-Survey http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33078 English CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Economic & Sector Work Economic & Sector Work :: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment South Asia Nepal
repository_type Digital Repository
institution_category Foreign Institution
institution Digital Repositories
building World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection World Bank
language English
topic RISK ASSESSMENT
VULNERABILITY
VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS
RAINFALL
MONSOON
AGRICULTURE
WEATHER EVENTS
POVERTY
spellingShingle RISK ASSESSMENT
VULNERABILITY
VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS
RAINFALL
MONSOON
AGRICULTURE
WEATHER EVENTS
POVERTY
Jacoby, Hanan G.
Walker, Thomas
The Monsoon Shock in Rural Nepal : Panel Evidence from the Household Risk and Vulnerability Survey
geographic_facet South Asia
Nepal
description Monsoon rainfall is a key driver of economic life in rural Nepal as well as a major source of income variability. In this paper, the authors use a newly collected 3-year panel data set, representative of rural Nepal, merged with global monthly precipitation data to investigate the nature of the monsoon shock and to quantify household vulnerability to it. The authors find that the impact of the monsoon shock is concentrated in communities where water-intensive paddy dominates wet season cultivation and, coincidently, where groundwater irrigates dry season cultivation. In these communities, household size, area cultivated, agricultural and non-agricultural income, and household per capita food consumption measured nine months after the wet season harvest, all decline in response to a negative monsoon rainfall shock. A one standard deviation fall in monsoon precipitation is estimated to reduce total income by 3.8 percent and lead to a 0.8 percent drop in food consumption for the average rural household, but these figures rise to 11.5 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively, for households in the most paddy-intensive communities. These results have implications for social protection policies, especially in the lowlands of Nepal.
format Report
author Jacoby, Hanan G.
Walker, Thomas
author_facet Jacoby, Hanan G.
Walker, Thomas
author_sort Jacoby, Hanan G.
title The Monsoon Shock in Rural Nepal : Panel Evidence from the Household Risk and Vulnerability Survey
title_short The Monsoon Shock in Rural Nepal : Panel Evidence from the Household Risk and Vulnerability Survey
title_full The Monsoon Shock in Rural Nepal : Panel Evidence from the Household Risk and Vulnerability Survey
title_fullStr The Monsoon Shock in Rural Nepal : Panel Evidence from the Household Risk and Vulnerability Survey
title_full_unstemmed The Monsoon Shock in Rural Nepal : Panel Evidence from the Household Risk and Vulnerability Survey
title_sort monsoon shock in rural nepal : panel evidence from the household risk and vulnerability survey
publisher World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate 2019
url http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/147481575970144562/The-Monsoon-Shock-in-Rural-Nepal-Panel-Evidence-from-the-Household-Risk-and-Vulnerability-Survey
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33078
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