The Monsoon Shock in Rural Nepal : Panel Evidence from the Household Risk and Vulnerability Survey

Monsoon rainfall is a key driver of economic life in rural Nepal as well as a major source of income variability. In this paper, the authors use a newly collected 3-year panel data set, representative of rural Nepal, merged with global monthly prec...

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Main Authors:	Jacoby, Hanan G., Walker, Thomas
Format:	Report
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2019
Subjects:	RISK ASSESSMENT VULNERABILITY VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS RAINFALL MONSOON AGRICULTURE WEATHER EVENTS POVERTY
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/147481575970144562/The-Monsoon-Shock-in-Rural-Nepal-Panel-Evidence-from-the-Household-Risk-and-Vulnerability-Survey http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33078

id	okr-10986-33078
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-330782021-05-25T09:31:10Z The Monsoon Shock in Rural Nepal : Panel Evidence from the Household Risk and Vulnerability Survey Jacoby, Hanan G. Walker, Thomas RISK ASSESSMENT VULNERABILITY VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS RAINFALL MONSOON AGRICULTURE WEATHER EVENTS POVERTY Monsoon rainfall is a key driver of economic life in rural Nepal as well as a major source of income variability. In this paper, the authors use a newly collected 3-year panel data set, representative of rural Nepal, merged with global monthly precipitation data to investigate the nature of the monsoon shock and to quantify household vulnerability to it. The authors find that the impact of the monsoon shock is concentrated in communities where water-intensive paddy dominates wet season cultivation and, coincidently, where groundwater irrigates dry season cultivation. In these communities, household size, area cultivated, agricultural and non-agricultural income, and household per capita food consumption measured nine months after the wet season harvest, all decline in response to a negative monsoon rainfall shock. A one standard deviation fall in monsoon precipitation is estimated to reduce total income by 3.8 percent and lead to a 0.8 percent drop in food consumption for the average rural household, but these figures rise to 11.5 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively, for households in the most paddy-intensive communities. These results have implications for social protection policies, especially in the lowlands of Nepal. 2019-12-23T20:38:59Z 2019-12-23T20:38:59Z 2019-11-20 Report http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/147481575970144562/The-Monsoon-Shock-in-Rural-Nepal-Panel-Evidence-from-the-Household-Risk-and-Vulnerability-Survey http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33078 English CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Economic & Sector Work Economic & Sector Work :: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment South Asia Nepal
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	RISK ASSESSMENT VULNERABILITY VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS RAINFALL MONSOON AGRICULTURE WEATHER EVENTS POVERTY
spellingShingle	RISK ASSESSMENT VULNERABILITY VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS RAINFALL MONSOON AGRICULTURE WEATHER EVENTS POVERTY Jacoby, Hanan G. Walker, Thomas The Monsoon Shock in Rural Nepal : Panel Evidence from the Household Risk and Vulnerability Survey
geographic_facet	South Asia Nepal
description	Monsoon rainfall is a key driver of economic life in rural Nepal as well as a major source of income variability. In this paper, the authors use a newly collected 3-year panel data set, representative of rural Nepal, merged with global monthly precipitation data to investigate the nature of the monsoon shock and to quantify household vulnerability to it. The authors find that the impact of the monsoon shock is concentrated in communities where water-intensive paddy dominates wet season cultivation and, coincidently, where groundwater irrigates dry season cultivation. In these communities, household size, area cultivated, agricultural and non-agricultural income, and household per capita food consumption measured nine months after the wet season harvest, all decline in response to a negative monsoon rainfall shock. A one standard deviation fall in monsoon precipitation is estimated to reduce total income by 3.8 percent and lead to a 0.8 percent drop in food consumption for the average rural household, but these figures rise to 11.5 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively, for households in the most paddy-intensive communities. These results have implications for social protection policies, especially in the lowlands of Nepal.
format	Report
author	Jacoby, Hanan G. Walker, Thomas
author_facet	Jacoby, Hanan G. Walker, Thomas
author_sort	Jacoby, Hanan G.
title	The Monsoon Shock in Rural Nepal : Panel Evidence from the Household Risk and Vulnerability Survey
title_short	The Monsoon Shock in Rural Nepal : Panel Evidence from the Household Risk and Vulnerability Survey
title_full	The Monsoon Shock in Rural Nepal : Panel Evidence from the Household Risk and Vulnerability Survey
title_fullStr	The Monsoon Shock in Rural Nepal : Panel Evidence from the Household Risk and Vulnerability Survey
title_full_unstemmed	The Monsoon Shock in Rural Nepal : Panel Evidence from the Household Risk and Vulnerability Survey
title_sort	monsoon shock in rural nepal : panel evidence from the household risk and vulnerability survey
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2019
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/147481575970144562/The-Monsoon-Shock-in-Rural-Nepal-Panel-Evidence-from-the-Household-Risk-and-Vulnerability-Survey http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33078
_version_	1764477945286492160

The Monsoon Shock in Rural Nepal : Panel Evidence from the Household Risk and Vulnerability Survey

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