Narrow Incumbent Victories and Post-Election Conflict : Evidence from the Philippines
Post-election violence is a common form of conflict, but its underlying mechanisms are not well understood. Using data from the 2007 Philippine mayoral elections, this paper provides evidence that post-election violence is particularly intense afte...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2020
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/633841580304389537/Narrow-Incumbent-Victories-and-Post-Election-Conflict-Evidence-from-the-Philippines http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33262 |
| Summary: | Post-election violence is a common form
of conflict, but its underlying mechanisms are not well
understood. Using data from the 2007 Philippine mayoral
elections, this paper provides evidence that post-election
violence is particularly intense after narrow victories by
incumbents. Using a density test, the study shows that
incumbents were substantially more likely to win narrow
victories than their challengers, a pattern consistent with
electoral manipulation. There is no evidence that the
increase in post-election violence is related to the
incumbent's political platform or their performance in
past elections. These results provide support for the notion
that post-election violence is triggered by election fraud
or by the failure of democratic ways of removing unpopular
incumbents from office. |
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