Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2019 : So When Gravity Beckons, the Poor Don't Fall

Lebanon is in Crisis. While it is too early to gauge the economic impact of recent events, it is important to note that even prior to the eruption of the demonstrations, the World Bank projected a small recession in 2019; we now estimate that the r...

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Main Author:	World Bank
Format:	Report
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2020
Subjects:	ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FISCAL TRENDS MONETARY POLICY BANKING EXTERNAL SECTOR CRISIS MANAGEMENT DEBT MANAGEMENT CONCESSIONAL FINANCE
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/349901579899850508/Lebanon-Economic-Monitor-So-When-Gravity-Beckons-the-Poor-Dont-Fall http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33279

id	okr-10986-33279
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-332792021-05-25T09:32:13Z Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2019 : So When Gravity Beckons, the Poor Don't Fall World Bank ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FISCAL TRENDS MONETARY POLICY BANKING EXTERNAL SECTOR CRISIS MANAGEMENT DEBT MANAGEMENT CONCESSIONAL FINANCE Lebanon is in Crisis. While it is too early to gauge the economic impact of recent events, it is important to note that even prior to the eruption of the demonstrations, the World Bank projected a small recession in 2019; we now estimate that the recession will be deeper. There has been an unprecedented banking holiday, with banks closed over October 18-31 for retail and other transactions, reopening thereafter with informal capital controls and other uncoordinated measures, then closing again for 10 days on November 9. Critical short-term financing for businesses has been interrupted, leading to disruptions all along the supply chain and an ultimate impact on workers. Unemployment is expected to rise and poverty, already high, will follow. The emerging parallel exchange market is likely to trigger inflationary pressures, hurting the poor and middle class disproportionally. Shortages of imports are also expected to materialize. The crisis is a culmination of chronic conditions that have long impeded Lebanon’s development process. Lebanon’s Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD)1 identified elite capture, hidden behind the veil of confessionalism and confessional governance, as one of two overarching constraints for the country’s economic development (the other being conflict and violence, stemming, in part, from the broader dynamics of conflict in the Middle East). Under the guise of preserving post-war confessional balances, a postwar elite emerged to command the main economic resources, both private and public, generating large rents and dividing the spoils of uncompetitive markets and a dysfunctional and hallowed state. 2020-02-03T22:09:42Z 2020-02-03T22:09:42Z 2019-10 Report http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/349901579899850508/Lebanon-Economic-Monitor-So-When-Gravity-Beckons-the-Poor-Dont-Fall http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33279 English CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Economic & Sector Work Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling Middle East and North Africa Lebanon
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FISCAL TRENDS MONETARY POLICY BANKING EXTERNAL SECTOR CRISIS MANAGEMENT DEBT MANAGEMENT CONCESSIONAL FINANCE
spellingShingle	ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FISCAL TRENDS MONETARY POLICY BANKING EXTERNAL SECTOR CRISIS MANAGEMENT DEBT MANAGEMENT CONCESSIONAL FINANCE World Bank Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2019 : So When Gravity Beckons, the Poor Don't Fall
geographic_facet	Middle East and North Africa Lebanon
description	Lebanon is in Crisis. While it is too early to gauge the economic impact of recent events, it is important to note that even prior to the eruption of the demonstrations, the World Bank projected a small recession in 2019; we now estimate that the recession will be deeper. There has been an unprecedented banking holiday, with banks closed over October 18-31 for retail and other transactions, reopening thereafter with informal capital controls and other uncoordinated measures, then closing again for 10 days on November 9. Critical short-term financing for businesses has been interrupted, leading to disruptions all along the supply chain and an ultimate impact on workers. Unemployment is expected to rise and poverty, already high, will follow. The emerging parallel exchange market is likely to trigger inflationary pressures, hurting the poor and middle class disproportionally. Shortages of imports are also expected to materialize. The crisis is a culmination of chronic conditions that have long impeded Lebanon’s development process. Lebanon’s Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD)1 identified elite capture, hidden behind the veil of confessionalism and confessional governance, as one of two overarching constraints for the country’s economic development (the other being conflict and violence, stemming, in part, from the broader dynamics of conflict in the Middle East). Under the guise of preserving post-war confessional balances, a postwar elite emerged to command the main economic resources, both private and public, generating large rents and dividing the spoils of uncompetitive markets and a dysfunctional and hallowed state.
format	Report
author	World Bank
author_facet	World Bank
author_sort	World Bank
title	Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2019 : So When Gravity Beckons, the Poor Don't Fall
title_short	Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2019 : So When Gravity Beckons, the Poor Don't Fall
title_full	Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2019 : So When Gravity Beckons, the Poor Don't Fall
title_fullStr	Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2019 : So When Gravity Beckons, the Poor Don't Fall
title_full_unstemmed	Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2019 : So When Gravity Beckons, the Poor Don't Fall
title_sort	lebanon economic monitor, fall 2019 : so when gravity beckons, the poor don't fall
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2020
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/349901579899850508/Lebanon-Economic-Monitor-So-When-Gravity-Beckons-the-Poor-Dont-Fall http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33279
_version_	1764478383108915200

Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2019 : So When Gravity Beckons, the Poor Don't Fall

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