Supporting Electrification Policy in Fragile States : A Conflict-Adjusted Geospatial Least Cost Approach for Afghanistan

Roughly two billion people live in areas that regularly suffer from conflict, violence, and instability. Infrastructure development in those areas is very difficult to implement and fund. As an example, electrification systems face major challenges...

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Main Authors:	Korkovelos, Alexandros, Mentis, Dimitrios, Bazilian, Morgan, Howells, Mark, Saraj, Anwar, Hotaki, Sulaiman Fayez, Missfeldt-Ringius, Fanny
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	MDPI 2020
Subjects:	CONFLICT-AFFECTED STATES ELECTRIFICATION GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS OnSSET GIS GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/233391583898995644/Supporting-Electrification-Policy-in-Fragile-States-A-Conflict-Adjusted-Geospatial-Least-Cost-Approach-for-Afghanistan http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33464

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recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-334642021-05-25T10:54:41Z Supporting Electrification Policy in Fragile States : A Conflict-Adjusted Geospatial Least Cost Approach for Afghanistan Korkovelos, Alexandros Mentis, Dimitrios Bazilian, Morgan Howells, Mark Saraj, Anwar Hotaki, Sulaiman Fayez Missfeldt-Ringius, Fanny CONFLICT-AFFECTED STATES ELECTRIFICATION GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS OnSSET GIS GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM Roughly two billion people live in areas that regularly suffer from conflict, violence, and instability. Infrastructure development in those areas is very difficult to implement and fund. As an example, electrification systems face major challenges such as ensuring the security of the workforce or reliability of power supply. This paper presents electrification results from an explorative methodology, where the costs and risks of conflict are explicitly considered in a geo-spatial, least cost electrification model. Discount factor and risk premium adjustments are introduced per technology and location in order to examine changes in electrification outlooks in Afghanistan. Findings indicate that the cost optimal electrification mix is very sensitive to the local context; yet, certain patterns emerge. Urban populations create a strong consumer base for grid electricity, in some cases even under higher risk. For peri-urban and rural areas, electrification options are more sensitive to conflict-induced risk variation. In this paper, we identify these inflection points, quantify key decision parameters, and present policy recommendations for universal electrification of Afghanistan by 2030. 2020-03-24T16:14:21Z 2020-03-24T16:14:21Z 2020-01-21 Journal Article http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/233391583898995644/Supporting-Electrification-Policy-in-Fragile-States-A-Conflict-Adjusted-Geospatial-Least-Cost-Approach-for-Afghanistan Sustainability http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33464 English CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank MDPI Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Journal Article South Asia Afghanistan
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	CONFLICT-AFFECTED STATES ELECTRIFICATION GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS OnSSET GIS GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM
spellingShingle	CONFLICT-AFFECTED STATES ELECTRIFICATION GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS OnSSET GIS GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM Korkovelos, Alexandros Mentis, Dimitrios Bazilian, Morgan Howells, Mark Saraj, Anwar Hotaki, Sulaiman Fayez Missfeldt-Ringius, Fanny Supporting Electrification Policy in Fragile States : A Conflict-Adjusted Geospatial Least Cost Approach for Afghanistan
geographic_facet	South Asia Afghanistan
description	Roughly two billion people live in areas that regularly suffer from conflict, violence, and instability. Infrastructure development in those areas is very difficult to implement and fund. As an example, electrification systems face major challenges such as ensuring the security of the workforce or reliability of power supply. This paper presents electrification results from an explorative methodology, where the costs and risks of conflict are explicitly considered in a geo-spatial, least cost electrification model. Discount factor and risk premium adjustments are introduced per technology and location in order to examine changes in electrification outlooks in Afghanistan. Findings indicate that the cost optimal electrification mix is very sensitive to the local context; yet, certain patterns emerge. Urban populations create a strong consumer base for grid electricity, in some cases even under higher risk. For peri-urban and rural areas, electrification options are more sensitive to conflict-induced risk variation. In this paper, we identify these inflection points, quantify key decision parameters, and present policy recommendations for universal electrification of Afghanistan by 2030.
format	Journal Article
author	Korkovelos, Alexandros Mentis, Dimitrios Bazilian, Morgan Howells, Mark Saraj, Anwar Hotaki, Sulaiman Fayez Missfeldt-Ringius, Fanny
author_facet	Korkovelos, Alexandros Mentis, Dimitrios Bazilian, Morgan Howells, Mark Saraj, Anwar Hotaki, Sulaiman Fayez Missfeldt-Ringius, Fanny
author_sort	Korkovelos, Alexandros
title	Supporting Electrification Policy in Fragile States : A Conflict-Adjusted Geospatial Least Cost Approach for Afghanistan
title_short	Supporting Electrification Policy in Fragile States : A Conflict-Adjusted Geospatial Least Cost Approach for Afghanistan
title_full	Supporting Electrification Policy in Fragile States : A Conflict-Adjusted Geospatial Least Cost Approach for Afghanistan
title_fullStr	Supporting Electrification Policy in Fragile States : A Conflict-Adjusted Geospatial Least Cost Approach for Afghanistan
title_full_unstemmed	Supporting Electrification Policy in Fragile States : A Conflict-Adjusted Geospatial Least Cost Approach for Afghanistan
title_sort	supporting electrification policy in fragile states : a conflict-adjusted geospatial least cost approach for afghanistan
publisher	MDPI
publishDate	2020
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/233391583898995644/Supporting-Electrification-Policy-in-Fragile-States-A-Conflict-Adjusted-Geospatial-Least-Cost-Approach-for-Afghanistan http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33464
_version_	1764478808998543360

Supporting Electrification Policy in Fragile States : A Conflict-Adjusted Geospatial Least Cost Approach for Afghanistan

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