Scenario Analysis Tool for Assessment and Monitoring of Government Guarantees
Central to making good decisions about debt guarantees is assessing their expected and possible fiscal cost, a task that many governments still struggle with. This paper therefore describes a relatively simple scenario analysis method for estimatin...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2020
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/269561590553374272/Scenario-Analysis-Tool-for-Assessment-and-Monitoring-of-Government-Guarantees http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33812 |
| Summary: | Central to making good decisions about
debt guarantees is assessing their expected and possible
fiscal cost, a task that many governments still struggle
with. This paper therefore describes a relatively simple
scenario analysis method for estimating potential payments
from the government when a beneficiary faces difficulty with
debt payments. The basic version of the approach estimates
the payments in a given scenario to inform risk management
decisions. The paper then extends the method for situations
where more rigor is required or where the economic guarantee
fee is to be estimated. The final part of the paper extends
the method to assess the combined loss of multiple
guarantees when simultaneously subjected to negative
economic conditions. |
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