Scenario Analysis Tool for Assessment and Monitoring of Government Guarantees

Scenario Analysis Tool for Assessment and Monitoring of Government Guarantees

Central to making good decisions about debt guarantees is assessing their expected and possible fiscal cost, a task that many governments still struggle with. This paper therefore describes a relatively simple scenario analysis method for estimatin...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Razlog, Lilia, Marrison, Chris, Irwin, Tim
Format: Working Paper
Language:English
Published: World Bank, Washington, DC 2020
Subjects:
GUARANTEES
CONTINGENT LIABILITY
ON-LENDING
PUBLIC FINANCE
FISCAL RISK
DEBT MANAGEMENT
Online Access:http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/269561590553374272/Scenario-Analysis-Tool-for-Assessment-and-Monitoring-of-Government-Guarantees
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33812
id okr-10986-33812
recordtype oai_dc
spelling okr-10986-338122021-05-25T09:55:35Z Scenario Analysis Tool for Assessment and Monitoring of Government Guarantees Razlog, Lilia Marrison, Chris Irwin, Tim GUARANTEES CONTINGENT LIABILITY ON-LENDING PUBLIC FINANCE FISCAL RISK DEBT MANAGEMENT Central to making good decisions about debt guarantees is assessing their expected and possible fiscal cost, a task that many governments still struggle with. This paper therefore describes a relatively simple scenario analysis method for estimating potential payments from the government when a beneficiary faces difficulty with debt payments. The basic version of the approach estimates the payments in a given scenario to inform risk management decisions. The paper then extends the method for situations where more rigor is required or where the economic guarantee fee is to be estimated. The final part of the paper extends the method to assess the combined loss of multiple guarantees when simultaneously subjected to negative economic conditions. 2020-05-27T14:56:06Z 2020-05-27T14:56:06Z 2020-05 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/269561590553374272/Scenario-Analysis-Tool-for-Assessment-and-Monitoring-of-Government-Guarantees http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33812 English MTI Discussion Paper;No. 21 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Working Paper
repository_type Digital Repository
institution_category Foreign Institution
institution Digital Repositories
building World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection World Bank
language English
topic GUARANTEES
CONTINGENT LIABILITY
ON-LENDING
PUBLIC FINANCE
FISCAL RISK
DEBT MANAGEMENT
spellingShingle GUARANTEES
CONTINGENT LIABILITY
ON-LENDING
PUBLIC FINANCE
FISCAL RISK
DEBT MANAGEMENT
Razlog, Lilia
Marrison, Chris
Irwin, Tim
Scenario Analysis Tool for Assessment and Monitoring of Government Guarantees
relation MTI Discussion Paper;No. 21
description Central to making good decisions about debt guarantees is assessing their expected and possible fiscal cost, a task that many governments still struggle with. This paper therefore describes a relatively simple scenario analysis method for estimating potential payments from the government when a beneficiary faces difficulty with debt payments. The basic version of the approach estimates the payments in a given scenario to inform risk management decisions. The paper then extends the method for situations where more rigor is required or where the economic guarantee fee is to be estimated. The final part of the paper extends the method to assess the combined loss of multiple guarantees when simultaneously subjected to negative economic conditions.
format Working Paper
author Razlog, Lilia
Marrison, Chris
Irwin, Tim
author_facet Razlog, Lilia
Marrison, Chris
Irwin, Tim
author_sort Razlog, Lilia
title Scenario Analysis Tool for Assessment and Monitoring of Government Guarantees
title_short Scenario Analysis Tool for Assessment and Monitoring of Government Guarantees
title_full Scenario Analysis Tool for Assessment and Monitoring of Government Guarantees
title_fullStr Scenario Analysis Tool for Assessment and Monitoring of Government Guarantees
title_full_unstemmed Scenario Analysis Tool for Assessment and Monitoring of Government Guarantees
title_sort scenario analysis tool for assessment and monitoring of government guarantees
publisher World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate 2020
url http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/269561590553374272/Scenario-Analysis-Tool-for-Assessment-and-Monitoring-of-Government-Guarantees
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33812
_version_ 1764479567618113536

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