Scenario Analysis Tool for Assessment and Monitoring of Government Guarantees
Central to making good decisions about debt guarantees is assessing their expected and possible fiscal cost, a task that many governments still struggle with. This paper therefore describes a relatively simple scenario analysis method for estimatin...
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2020
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okr-10986-338122021-05-25T09:55:35Z Scenario Analysis Tool for Assessment and Monitoring of Government Guarantees Razlog, Lilia Marrison, Chris Irwin, Tim GUARANTEES CONTINGENT LIABILITY ON-LENDING PUBLIC FINANCE FISCAL RISK DEBT MANAGEMENT Central to making good decisions about debt guarantees is assessing their expected and possible fiscal cost, a task that many governments still struggle with. This paper therefore describes a relatively simple scenario analysis method for estimating potential payments from the government when a beneficiary faces difficulty with debt payments. The basic version of the approach estimates the payments in a given scenario to inform risk management decisions. The paper then extends the method for situations where more rigor is required or where the economic guarantee fee is to be estimated. The final part of the paper extends the method to assess the combined loss of multiple guarantees when simultaneously subjected to negative economic conditions. 2020-05-27T14:56:06Z 2020-05-27T14:56:06Z 2020-05 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/269561590553374272/Scenario-Analysis-Tool-for-Assessment-and-Monitoring-of-Government-Guarantees http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33812 English MTI Discussion Paper;No. 21 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Working Paper |
repository_type |
Digital Repository |
institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
institution |
Digital Repositories |
building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
collection |
World Bank |
language |
English |
topic |
GUARANTEES CONTINGENT LIABILITY ON-LENDING PUBLIC FINANCE FISCAL RISK DEBT MANAGEMENT |
spellingShingle |
GUARANTEES CONTINGENT LIABILITY ON-LENDING PUBLIC FINANCE FISCAL RISK DEBT MANAGEMENT Razlog, Lilia Marrison, Chris Irwin, Tim Scenario Analysis Tool for Assessment and Monitoring of Government Guarantees |
relation |
MTI Discussion Paper;No. 21 |
description |
Central to making good decisions about
debt guarantees is assessing their expected and possible
fiscal cost, a task that many governments still struggle
with. This paper therefore describes a relatively simple
scenario analysis method for estimating potential payments
from the government when a beneficiary faces difficulty with
debt payments. The basic version of the approach estimates
the payments in a given scenario to inform risk management
decisions. The paper then extends the method for situations
where more rigor is required or where the economic guarantee
fee is to be estimated. The final part of the paper extends
the method to assess the combined loss of multiple
guarantees when simultaneously subjected to negative
economic conditions. |
format |
Working Paper |
author |
Razlog, Lilia Marrison, Chris Irwin, Tim |
author_facet |
Razlog, Lilia Marrison, Chris Irwin, Tim |
author_sort |
Razlog, Lilia |
title |
Scenario Analysis Tool for Assessment and Monitoring of Government Guarantees |
title_short |
Scenario Analysis Tool for Assessment and Monitoring of Government Guarantees |
title_full |
Scenario Analysis Tool for Assessment and Monitoring of Government Guarantees |
title_fullStr |
Scenario Analysis Tool for Assessment and Monitoring of Government Guarantees |
title_full_unstemmed |
Scenario Analysis Tool for Assessment and Monitoring of Government Guarantees |
title_sort |
scenario analysis tool for assessment and monitoring of government guarantees |
publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/269561590553374272/Scenario-Analysis-Tool-for-Assessment-and-Monitoring-of-Government-Guarantees http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33812 |
_version_ |
1764479567618113536 |