Simulating the Potential Impacts of COVID-19 School Closures on Schooling and Learning Outcomes : A Set of Global Estimates
School closures due to COVID-19 have left more than a billion students out of school. This paper presents the results of simulations considering three, five and seven months of school closure and different levels of mitigation effectiveness resulti...
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2020
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/329961592483383689/Simulating-the-Potential-Impacts-of-COVID-19-School-Closures-on-Schooling-and-Learning-Outcomes-A-Set-of-Global-Estimates http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33945 |
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okr-10986-339452022-09-20T00:08:51Z Simulating the Potential Impacts of COVID-19 School Closures on Schooling and Learning Outcomes : A Set of Global Estimates Azevedo, Joao Pedro Hasan, Amer Goldemberg, Diana Iqbal, Syedah Aroob Geven, Koen CORONAVIRUS COVID-19 PANDEMIC IMPACT SCHOOL CLOSURE LEARNING LOSS LEARNING OUTCOMES EDUCATION DROPOUT RATE School closures due to COVID-19 have left more than a billion students out of school. This paper presents the results of simulations considering three, five and seven months of school closure and different levels of mitigation effectiveness resulting in optimistic, intermediate and pessimistic global scenarios. Using data on 157 countries, the analysis finds that the global level of schooling and learning will fall. COVID-19 could result in a loss of between 0.3 and 0.9 years of schooling adjusted for quality, bringing down the effective years of basic schooling that students achieve during their lifetime from 7.9 years to between 7.0 and 7.6 years. Close to 7 million students from primary up to secondary education could drop out due to the income shock of the pandemic alone. Students from the current cohort could, on average, face a reduction of $355, $872, or $1,408 in yearly earnings. In present value terms, this amounts to between $6,472 and $25,680 dollars in lost earnings over a typical student's lifetime. Exclusion and inequality will likely be exacerbated if already marginalized and vulnerable groups, like girls, ethnic minorities, and persons with disabilities, are more adversely affected by the school closures. Globally, a school shutdown of 5 months could generate learning losses that have a present value of $10 trillion. By this measure, the world could stand to lose as much as 16 percent of the investments that governments make in the basic education of this cohort of students. The world could thus face a substantial setback in achieving the goal of halving the percentage of learning poor and be unable to meet the goal by 2030 unless drastic remedial action is taken. 2020-06-18T15:44:36Z 2020-06-18T15:44:36Z 2020-06 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/329961592483383689/Simulating-the-Potential-Impacts-of-COVID-19-School-Closures-on-Schooling-and-Learning-Outcomes-A-Set-of-Global-Estimates http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33945 English Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9284 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
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Digital Repository |
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Foreign Institution |
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Digital Repositories |
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World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
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World Bank |
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English |
| topic |
CORONAVIRUS COVID-19 PANDEMIC IMPACT SCHOOL CLOSURE LEARNING LOSS LEARNING OUTCOMES EDUCATION DROPOUT RATE |
| spellingShingle |
CORONAVIRUS COVID-19 PANDEMIC IMPACT SCHOOL CLOSURE LEARNING LOSS LEARNING OUTCOMES EDUCATION DROPOUT RATE Azevedo, Joao Pedro Hasan, Amer Goldemberg, Diana Iqbal, Syedah Aroob Geven, Koen Simulating the Potential Impacts of COVID-19 School Closures on Schooling and Learning Outcomes : A Set of Global Estimates |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9284 |
| description |
School closures due to COVID-19 have
left more than a billion students out of school. This paper
presents the results of simulations considering three, five
and seven months of school closure and different levels of
mitigation effectiveness resulting in optimistic,
intermediate and pessimistic global scenarios. Using data on
157 countries, the analysis finds that the global level of
schooling and learning will fall. COVID-19 could result in a
loss of between 0.3 and 0.9 years of schooling adjusted for
quality, bringing down the effective years of basic
schooling that students achieve during their lifetime from
7.9 years to between 7.0 and 7.6 years. Close to 7 million
students from primary up to secondary education could drop
out due to the income shock of the pandemic alone. Students
from the current cohort could, on average, face a reduction
of $355, $872, or $1,408 in yearly earnings. In present
value terms, this amounts to between $6,472 and $25,680
dollars in lost earnings over a typical student's
lifetime. Exclusion and inequality will likely be
exacerbated if already marginalized and vulnerable groups,
like girls, ethnic minorities, and persons with
disabilities, are more adversely affected by the school
closures. Globally, a school shutdown of 5 months could
generate learning losses that have a present value of $10
trillion. By this measure, the world could stand to lose as
much as 16 percent of the investments that governments make
in the basic education of this cohort of students. The world
could thus face a substantial setback in achieving the goal
of halving the percentage of learning poor and be unable to
meet the goal by 2030 unless drastic remedial action is taken. |
| format |
Working Paper |
| author |
Azevedo, Joao Pedro Hasan, Amer Goldemberg, Diana Iqbal, Syedah Aroob Geven, Koen |
| author_facet |
Azevedo, Joao Pedro Hasan, Amer Goldemberg, Diana Iqbal, Syedah Aroob Geven, Koen |
| author_sort |
Azevedo, Joao Pedro |
| title |
Simulating the Potential Impacts of COVID-19 School Closures on Schooling and Learning Outcomes : A Set of Global Estimates |
| title_short |
Simulating the Potential Impacts of COVID-19 School Closures on Schooling and Learning Outcomes : A Set of Global Estimates |
| title_full |
Simulating the Potential Impacts of COVID-19 School Closures on Schooling and Learning Outcomes : A Set of Global Estimates |
| title_fullStr |
Simulating the Potential Impacts of COVID-19 School Closures on Schooling and Learning Outcomes : A Set of Global Estimates |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Simulating the Potential Impacts of COVID-19 School Closures on Schooling and Learning Outcomes : A Set of Global Estimates |
| title_sort |
simulating the potential impacts of covid-19 school closures on schooling and learning outcomes : a set of global estimates |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2020 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/329961592483383689/Simulating-the-Potential-Impacts-of-COVID-19-School-Closures-on-Schooling-and-Learning-Outcomes-A-Set-of-Global-Estimates http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33945 |
| _version_ |
1764479854829371392 |