Reversal of Fortune for Political Incumbents : Evidence from Oil Shocks
Using a new data set of 207 national elections across 50 democracies, this paper is the first to systematically examine the effects of oil price shocks on incumbents’ political fortunes in developed oil-importing countries. We find that oil price increases systematically lower the odds of reelection...
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2020
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/955551592847409083/Reversal-of-Fortune-for-Political-Incumbents-after-Oil-Shocks http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33982 |
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okr-10986-339822022-09-20T00:09:04Z Reversal of Fortune for Political Incumbents : Evidence from Oil Shocks Arezki, Rabah Djankov, Simeon Nguyen, Ha Yotzov, Ivan OIL PRICES ELECTIONS POLITICAL ECONOMY ECONOMIC SHOCK CONSUMPTION OIL SHOCK DEMOCRACY Using a new data set of 207 national elections across 50 democracies, this paper is the first to systematically examine the effects of oil price shocks on incumbents’ political fortunes in developed oil-importing countries. We find that oil price increases systematically lower the odds of reelection for incumbents and increase the likelihood of changes in the ideology of the incoming government. These shocks are found to operate through lowering consumption growth. 2020-06-25T14:34:53Z 2020-06-25T14:34:53Z 2020-06 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/955551592847409083/Reversal-of-Fortune-for-Political-Incumbents-after-Oil-Shocks http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33982 English Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9287 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
OIL PRICES ELECTIONS POLITICAL ECONOMY ECONOMIC SHOCK CONSUMPTION OIL SHOCK DEMOCRACY |
| spellingShingle |
OIL PRICES ELECTIONS POLITICAL ECONOMY ECONOMIC SHOCK CONSUMPTION OIL SHOCK DEMOCRACY Arezki, Rabah Djankov, Simeon Nguyen, Ha Yotzov, Ivan Reversal of Fortune for Political Incumbents : Evidence from Oil Shocks |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9287 |
| description |
Using a new data set of 207 national elections across 50 democracies, this paper is the first to systematically examine the effects of oil price shocks on incumbents’ political fortunes in developed oil-importing countries. We find that oil price increases systematically lower the odds of reelection for incumbents and increase the likelihood of changes in the ideology of the incoming government. These shocks are found to operate through lowering consumption growth. |
| format |
Working Paper |
| author |
Arezki, Rabah Djankov, Simeon Nguyen, Ha Yotzov, Ivan |
| author_facet |
Arezki, Rabah Djankov, Simeon Nguyen, Ha Yotzov, Ivan |
| author_sort |
Arezki, Rabah |
| title |
Reversal of Fortune for Political Incumbents : Evidence from Oil Shocks |
| title_short |
Reversal of Fortune for Political Incumbents : Evidence from Oil Shocks |
| title_full |
Reversal of Fortune for Political Incumbents : Evidence from Oil Shocks |
| title_fullStr |
Reversal of Fortune for Political Incumbents : Evidence from Oil Shocks |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Reversal of Fortune for Political Incumbents : Evidence from Oil Shocks |
| title_sort |
reversal of fortune for political incumbents : evidence from oil shocks |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2020 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/955551592847409083/Reversal-of-Fortune-for-Political-Incumbents-after-Oil-Shocks http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33982 |
| _version_ |
1764479932081111040 |