COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves Are Flatter in Developing Countries

A greater share of reported COVID-19 deaths occur at younger ages in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared to high-income countries (HICs). Based on data from 26 countries, people age 70 and older constitute 37 percent of deaths attribu...

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Main Author:	Demombynes, Gabriel
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2020
Subjects:	CORONAVIRUS COVID-19 PANDEMIC IMPACT MORTALITY
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/701441593610141326/COVID-19-Age-Mortality-Curves-Are-Flatter-in-Developing-Countries http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34028

id	okr-10986-34028
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-340282022-09-20T00:10:16Z COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves Are Flatter in Developing Countries Demombynes, Gabriel CORONAVIRUS COVID-19 PANDEMIC IMPACT MORTALITY A greater share of reported COVID-19 deaths occur at younger ages in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared to high-income countries (HICs). Based on data from 26 countries, people age 70 and older constitute 37 percent of deaths attributed to COVID-19 in LMICs on average, versus 87 percent in HICs. Only part of this difference is accounted for by differences in population age structure. In this paper, COVID-19 mortality rates are calculated for each age group by dividing the number of COVID-19 deaths by the underlying population. The resulting age-mortality curves are flatter in countries with lower incomes. In HICs, the COVID-19 mortality rate for those ages 70-79 is 12.6 times the rate for those ages 50-59. In LMICs, that ratio is just 3.5. With each year of age, the age-specific mortality rate increases by an average of 12.6 percent in HICs versus 7.1 percent in LMICs. This pattern holds overall and separately for men's and women's mortality rates. It reflects some combination of variation across countries in age patterns of infection rates, fatality rates among those infected, and under-attribution of deaths to COVID-19. The findings highlight that experiences with COVID-19 in wealthy countries may not be generalizable to developing countries. 2020-07-06T18:49:33Z 2020-07-06T18:49:33Z 2020-07 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/701441593610141326/COVID-19-Age-Mortality-Curves-Are-Flatter-in-Developing-Countries http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34028 English Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9313 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	CORONAVIRUS COVID-19 PANDEMIC IMPACT MORTALITY
spellingShingle	CORONAVIRUS COVID-19 PANDEMIC IMPACT MORTALITY Demombynes, Gabriel COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves Are Flatter in Developing Countries
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9313
description	A greater share of reported COVID-19 deaths occur at younger ages in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared to high-income countries (HICs). Based on data from 26 countries, people age 70 and older constitute 37 percent of deaths attributed to COVID-19 in LMICs on average, versus 87 percent in HICs. Only part of this difference is accounted for by differences in population age structure. In this paper, COVID-19 mortality rates are calculated for each age group by dividing the number of COVID-19 deaths by the underlying population. The resulting age-mortality curves are flatter in countries with lower incomes. In HICs, the COVID-19 mortality rate for those ages 70-79 is 12.6 times the rate for those ages 50-59. In LMICs, that ratio is just 3.5. With each year of age, the age-specific mortality rate increases by an average of 12.6 percent in HICs versus 7.1 percent in LMICs. This pattern holds overall and separately for men's and women's mortality rates. It reflects some combination of variation across countries in age patterns of infection rates, fatality rates among those infected, and under-attribution of deaths to COVID-19. The findings highlight that experiences with COVID-19 in wealthy countries may not be generalizable to developing countries.
format	Working Paper
author	Demombynes, Gabriel
author_facet	Demombynes, Gabriel
author_sort	Demombynes, Gabriel
title	COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves Are Flatter in Developing Countries
title_short	COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves Are Flatter in Developing Countries
title_full	COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves Are Flatter in Developing Countries
title_fullStr	COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves Are Flatter in Developing Countries
title_full_unstemmed	COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves Are Flatter in Developing Countries
title_sort	covid-19 age-mortality curves are flatter in developing countries
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2020
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/701441593610141326/COVID-19-Age-Mortality-Curves-Are-Flatter-in-Developing-Countries http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34028
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COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves Are Flatter in Developing Countries

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