Natural Resource Discoveries, Citizen Expectations and Household Decisions

Major oil and gas discoveries are often associated with excitement and jubilation among citizens and government officials. But the extent to which discoveries substantially alter citizen expectations about economic conditions in a country remains a...

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Main Authors:	Cust, James, Mensah, Justice Tei
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2020
Subjects:	EXPECTATIONS CITIZEN ENGAGEMENT HOUSEHOLD DECISIONS NATURAL RESOURCES OIL DISCOVERIES RESOURCE CURSE OIL AND GAS INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/796881598889032254/Natural-Resource-Discoveries-Citizen-Expectations-and-Household-Decisions http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34420

id	okr-10986-34420
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-344202022-09-20T00:11:42Z Natural Resource Discoveries, Citizen Expectations and Household Decisions Cust, James Mensah, Justice Tei EXPECTATIONS CITIZEN ENGAGEMENT HOUSEHOLD DECISIONS NATURAL RESOURCES OIL DISCOVERIES RESOURCE CURSE OIL AND GAS INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION Major oil and gas discoveries are often associated with excitement and jubilation among citizens and government officials. But the extent to which discoveries substantially alter citizen expectations about economic conditions in a country remains an open question. The paper combines Afrobarometer data on household expectations on economic conditions and living standards with the announcement of oil and gas discoveries in Africa to estimate the effect of discoveries on expectations. The identification strategy exploits plausibly exogenous variation in the timing of discoveries relative to the rollout of survey interviews. The study find that discoveries increase expectations of better economic conditions and living standards by 35 and 52 percent respectively. Further, the paper finds that the overall expectations boom effect pertains only to countries with weaker institutions. The paper also provides evidence that households incorporate these expectations into their migration and fertility decisions, with fewer applications in the short run to the U.S. green card lottery and increased childbirth following discovery announcements. 2020-09-03T14:27:17Z 2020-09-03T14:27:17Z 2020-08 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/796881598889032254/Natural-Resource-Discoveries-Citizen-Expectations-and-Household-Decisions http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34420 English Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9372 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Africa Sub-Saharan Africa
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	EXPECTATIONS CITIZEN ENGAGEMENT HOUSEHOLD DECISIONS NATURAL RESOURCES OIL DISCOVERIES RESOURCE CURSE OIL AND GAS INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
spellingShingle	EXPECTATIONS CITIZEN ENGAGEMENT HOUSEHOLD DECISIONS NATURAL RESOURCES OIL DISCOVERIES RESOURCE CURSE OIL AND GAS INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION Cust, James Mensah, Justice Tei Natural Resource Discoveries, Citizen Expectations and Household Decisions
geographic_facet	Africa Sub-Saharan Africa
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9372
description	Major oil and gas discoveries are often associated with excitement and jubilation among citizens and government officials. But the extent to which discoveries substantially alter citizen expectations about economic conditions in a country remains an open question. The paper combines Afrobarometer data on household expectations on economic conditions and living standards with the announcement of oil and gas discoveries in Africa to estimate the effect of discoveries on expectations. The identification strategy exploits plausibly exogenous variation in the timing of discoveries relative to the rollout of survey interviews. The study find that discoveries increase expectations of better economic conditions and living standards by 35 and 52 percent respectively. Further, the paper finds that the overall expectations boom effect pertains only to countries with weaker institutions. The paper also provides evidence that households incorporate these expectations into their migration and fertility decisions, with fewer applications in the short run to the U.S. green card lottery and increased childbirth following discovery announcements.
format	Working Paper
author	Cust, James Mensah, Justice Tei
author_facet	Cust, James Mensah, Justice Tei
author_sort	Cust, James
title	Natural Resource Discoveries, Citizen Expectations and Household Decisions
title_short	Natural Resource Discoveries, Citizen Expectations and Household Decisions
title_full	Natural Resource Discoveries, Citizen Expectations and Household Decisions
title_fullStr	Natural Resource Discoveries, Citizen Expectations and Household Decisions
title_full_unstemmed	Natural Resource Discoveries, Citizen Expectations and Household Decisions
title_sort	natural resource discoveries, citizen expectations and household decisions
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2020
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/796881598889032254/Natural-Resource-Discoveries-Citizen-Expectations-and-Household-Decisions http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34420
_version_	1764480860162097152

Natural Resource Discoveries, Citizen Expectations and Household Decisions

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