The Seasonality of Conflict

This paper investigates whether poor employment prospects of potential insurgents help to fuel conflict. The paper provides a new test of this "opportunity cost mechanism" using one of the largest shocks to labor demand in agricultural so...

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Main Authors:	Guardado, Jenny, Pennings, Steven
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2020
Subjects:	FRAGILE STATES CONFLICT-AFFECTED STATES LABOR MARKET LABOR DEMAND HARVEST CYCLE EMPLOYMENT INSURGENCY OPPORTUNITY COST
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/261391598906198836/The-Seasonality-of-Conflict http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34421

id	okr-10986-34421
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-344212022-09-20T00:12:13Z The Seasonality of Conflict Guardado, Jenny Pennings, Steven FRAGILE STATES CONFLICT-AFFECTED STATES LABOR MARKET LABOR DEMAND HARVEST CYCLE EMPLOYMENT INSURGENCY OPPORTUNITY COST This paper investigates whether poor employment prospects of potential insurgents help to fuel conflict. The paper provides a new test of this "opportunity cost mechanism" using one of the largest shocks to labor demand in agricultural societies: harvest. Theoretically, the paper shows that because seasonal harvest shocks are temporary and anticipated, they change opportunity costs while keeping the dynamic benefits of fighting constant, yielding unbiased estimates even if those benefits are unobserved. In contrast, many other shocks in the conflict literature are persistent and unanticipated, thus also varying the dynamic benefits of fighting that confound estimates of the opportunity cost mechanism. Empirically, the paper estimates of the effect of harvest shocks on conflict intensity in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan using subnational variation in the timing and intensity of harvest driven by local climatic conditions. Consistent with the opportunity cost mechanism, the results show that the onset of harvest usually reduces the number of insurgent attacks. 2020-09-03T14:34:13Z 2020-09-03T14:34:13Z 2020-08 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/261391598906198836/The-Seasonality-of-Conflict http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34421 English Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9373 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Middle East and North Africa South Asia Middle East North Africa Afghanistan Iraq Pakistan
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	FRAGILE STATES CONFLICT-AFFECTED STATES LABOR MARKET LABOR DEMAND HARVEST CYCLE EMPLOYMENT INSURGENCY OPPORTUNITY COST
spellingShingle	FRAGILE STATES CONFLICT-AFFECTED STATES LABOR MARKET LABOR DEMAND HARVEST CYCLE EMPLOYMENT INSURGENCY OPPORTUNITY COST Guardado, Jenny Pennings, Steven The Seasonality of Conflict
geographic_facet	Middle East and North Africa South Asia Middle East North Africa Afghanistan Iraq Pakistan
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9373
description	This paper investigates whether poor employment prospects of potential insurgents help to fuel conflict. The paper provides a new test of this "opportunity cost mechanism" using one of the largest shocks to labor demand in agricultural societies: harvest. Theoretically, the paper shows that because seasonal harvest shocks are temporary and anticipated, they change opportunity costs while keeping the dynamic benefits of fighting constant, yielding unbiased estimates even if those benefits are unobserved. In contrast, many other shocks in the conflict literature are persistent and unanticipated, thus also varying the dynamic benefits of fighting that confound estimates of the opportunity cost mechanism. Empirically, the paper estimates of the effect of harvest shocks on conflict intensity in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan using subnational variation in the timing and intensity of harvest driven by local climatic conditions. Consistent with the opportunity cost mechanism, the results show that the onset of harvest usually reduces the number of insurgent attacks.
format	Working Paper
author	Guardado, Jenny Pennings, Steven
author_facet	Guardado, Jenny Pennings, Steven
author_sort	Guardado, Jenny
title	The Seasonality of Conflict
title_short	The Seasonality of Conflict
title_full	The Seasonality of Conflict
title_fullStr	The Seasonality of Conflict
title_full_unstemmed	The Seasonality of Conflict
title_sort	seasonality of conflict
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2020
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/261391598906198836/The-Seasonality-of-Conflict http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34421
_version_	1764480862033805312

The Seasonality of Conflict

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