How Did Africa's Prospective Petroleum Producers Fall Victim to the Presource Curse?
This paper reviews resource sector developments in 12 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa that made their first (major) petroleum discoveries during the most recent commodity boom. The analysis, which goes back to 2001, looks at sector forecasts of int...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2020
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/274381599578080257/How-Did-Africa-39-s-Prospective-Petroleum-Producers-Fall-Victim-to-the-Presource-Curse http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34470 |
| Summary: | This paper reviews resource sector
developments in 12 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa that made
their first (major) petroleum discoveries during the most
recent commodity boom. The analysis, which goes back to
2001, looks at sector forecasts of international
organizations, governments, and companies and compares them
with the results that emerged. The paper finds that a third
of the countries did not make any commercially viable
discoveries. Among those that potentially had commercial
finds, the latest timelines from discovery to production are
73 percent longer on average than initially expected. In the
six countries for which there are comparable data, revenue
collected thus far or the most recent revenue projections
for countries yet to reach production are 63 percent lower
on average than the initial forecasts. All 12 countries
experienced a disappointment in at least one of the three
dimensions analyzed—and these disappointments are likely to
be exacerbated by the recent price crash. The paper also
documents the various policies adopted in response to the
discoveries and -- with the benefit of hindsight -- finds
that, in some cases, this over optimism contributed to the
'presource curse~^!!^: suboptimal policymaking that did
not align with the new realities. Some recommendations are
provided on how better to navigate the inherent
uncertainties in developing the sector. |
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