How Did Africa's Prospective Petroleum Producers Fall Victim to the Presource Curse?
This paper reviews resource sector developments in 12 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa that made their first (major) petroleum discoveries during the most recent commodity boom. The analysis, which goes back to 2001, looks at sector forecasts of int...
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2020
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/274381599578080257/How-Did-Africa-39-s-Prospective-Petroleum-Producers-Fall-Victim-to-the-Presource-Curse http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34470 |
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okr-10986-344702022-09-20T00:10:16Z How Did Africa's Prospective Petroleum Producers Fall Victim to the Presource Curse? Mihalyi, David Scurfield, Thomas OIL PETROLEUM PRODUCER RESOURCE CURSE OIL PRICE NATURAL RESOURCES OIL AND GAS EXHAUSTIBLE RESOURCE PRESOURCE CURSE This paper reviews resource sector developments in 12 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa that made their first (major) petroleum discoveries during the most recent commodity boom. The analysis, which goes back to 2001, looks at sector forecasts of international organizations, governments, and companies and compares them with the results that emerged. The paper finds that a third of the countries did not make any commercially viable discoveries. Among those that potentially had commercial finds, the latest timelines from discovery to production are 73 percent longer on average than initially expected. In the six countries for which there are comparable data, revenue collected thus far or the most recent revenue projections for countries yet to reach production are 63 percent lower on average than the initial forecasts. All 12 countries experienced a disappointment in at least one of the three dimensions analyzed—and these disappointments are likely to be exacerbated by the recent price crash. The paper also documents the various policies adopted in response to the discoveries and -- with the benefit of hindsight -- finds that, in some cases, this over optimism contributed to the 'presource curse~^!!^: suboptimal policymaking that did not align with the new realities. Some recommendations are provided on how better to navigate the inherent uncertainties in developing the sector. 2020-09-17T17:27:17Z 2020-09-17T17:27:17Z 2020-09 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/274381599578080257/How-Did-Africa-39-s-Prospective-Petroleum-Producers-Fall-Victim-to-the-Presource-Curse http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34470 English Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9384 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Africa Sub-Saharan Africa |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
OIL PETROLEUM PRODUCER RESOURCE CURSE OIL PRICE NATURAL RESOURCES OIL AND GAS EXHAUSTIBLE RESOURCE PRESOURCE CURSE |
| spellingShingle |
OIL PETROLEUM PRODUCER RESOURCE CURSE OIL PRICE NATURAL RESOURCES OIL AND GAS EXHAUSTIBLE RESOURCE PRESOURCE CURSE Mihalyi, David Scurfield, Thomas How Did Africa's Prospective Petroleum Producers Fall Victim to the Presource Curse? |
| geographic_facet |
Africa Sub-Saharan Africa |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9384 |
| description |
This paper reviews resource sector
developments in 12 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa that made
their first (major) petroleum discoveries during the most
recent commodity boom. The analysis, which goes back to
2001, looks at sector forecasts of international
organizations, governments, and companies and compares them
with the results that emerged. The paper finds that a third
of the countries did not make any commercially viable
discoveries. Among those that potentially had commercial
finds, the latest timelines from discovery to production are
73 percent longer on average than initially expected. In the
six countries for which there are comparable data, revenue
collected thus far or the most recent revenue projections
for countries yet to reach production are 63 percent lower
on average than the initial forecasts. All 12 countries
experienced a disappointment in at least one of the three
dimensions analyzed—and these disappointments are likely to
be exacerbated by the recent price crash. The paper also
documents the various policies adopted in response to the
discoveries and -- with the benefit of hindsight -- finds
that, in some cases, this over optimism contributed to the
'presource curse~^!!^: suboptimal policymaking that did
not align with the new realities. Some recommendations are
provided on how better to navigate the inherent
uncertainties in developing the sector. |
| format |
Working Paper |
| author |
Mihalyi, David Scurfield, Thomas |
| author_facet |
Mihalyi, David Scurfield, Thomas |
| author_sort |
Mihalyi, David |
| title |
How Did Africa's Prospective Petroleum Producers Fall Victim to the Presource Curse? |
| title_short |
How Did Africa's Prospective Petroleum Producers Fall Victim to the Presource Curse? |
| title_full |
How Did Africa's Prospective Petroleum Producers Fall Victim to the Presource Curse? |
| title_fullStr |
How Did Africa's Prospective Petroleum Producers Fall Victim to the Presource Curse? |
| title_full_unstemmed |
How Did Africa's Prospective Petroleum Producers Fall Victim to the Presource Curse? |
| title_sort |
how did africa's prospective petroleum producers fall victim to the presource curse? |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2020 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/274381599578080257/How-Did-Africa-39-s-Prospective-Petroleum-Producers-Fall-Victim-to-the-Presource-Curse http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34470 |
| _version_ |
1764480967790034944 |