Revised Estimates of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Poverty by 2030

Thousands of scenarios are used to provide updated estimates for the impacts of climate change on extreme poverty in 2030. The range of the number of people falling into poverty due to climate change is between 32 million and 132 million in most sc...

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Main Authors:	Jafino, Bramka Arga, Walsh, Brian, Rozenberg, Julie, Hallegatte, Stephane
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2020
Subjects:	CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT EXTREME POVERTY INEQUALITY SHARED SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAYS UNCERTAINTY ACCESS TO BASIC SERVICES HEALTH IMPACT FOOD PRICES NATURAL DISASTER CLIMATE RESILIENCE
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/706751601388457990/Revised-Estimates-of-the-Impact-of-Climate-Change-on-Extreme-Poverty-by-2030 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34555

id	okr-10986-34555
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-345552022-09-20T00:08:41Z Revised Estimates of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Poverty by 2030 Jafino, Bramka Arga Walsh, Brian Rozenberg, Julie Hallegatte, Stephane CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT EXTREME POVERTY INEQUALITY SHARED SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAYS UNCERTAINTY ACCESS TO BASIC SERVICES HEALTH IMPACT FOOD PRICES NATURAL DISASTER CLIMATE RESILIENCE Thousands of scenarios are used to provide updated estimates for the impacts of climate change on extreme poverty in 2030. The range of the number of people falling into poverty due to climate change is between 32 million and 132 million in most scenarios. These results are commensurate with available estimates for the global poverty increase due to COVID-19. Socioeconomic drivers play a major role: optimistic baseline scenarios (rapid and inclusive growth with universal access to basic services in 2030) halve poverty impacts compared with the pessimistic baselines. Health impacts (malaria, diarrhea, and stunting) and the effect of food prices are responsible for most of the impact. The effect of food prices is the most important factor in Sub-Saharan Africa, while health effects, natural disasters, and food prices are all important in South Asia. These results suggest that accelerated action to boost resilience is urgent, and the COVID-19 recovery packages offer opportunities to do so. 2020-10-01T21:11:02Z 2020-10-01T21:11:02Z 2020-09 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/706751601388457990/Revised-Estimates-of-the-Impact-of-Climate-Change-on-Extreme-Poverty-by-2030 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34555 English Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9417 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Africa Sub-Saharan Africa
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT EXTREME POVERTY INEQUALITY SHARED SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAYS UNCERTAINTY ACCESS TO BASIC SERVICES HEALTH IMPACT FOOD PRICES NATURAL DISASTER CLIMATE RESILIENCE
spellingShingle	CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT EXTREME POVERTY INEQUALITY SHARED SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAYS UNCERTAINTY ACCESS TO BASIC SERVICES HEALTH IMPACT FOOD PRICES NATURAL DISASTER CLIMATE RESILIENCE Jafino, Bramka Arga Walsh, Brian Rozenberg, Julie Hallegatte, Stephane Revised Estimates of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Poverty by 2030
geographic_facet	Africa Sub-Saharan Africa
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9417
description	Thousands of scenarios are used to provide updated estimates for the impacts of climate change on extreme poverty in 2030. The range of the number of people falling into poverty due to climate change is between 32 million and 132 million in most scenarios. These results are commensurate with available estimates for the global poverty increase due to COVID-19. Socioeconomic drivers play a major role: optimistic baseline scenarios (rapid and inclusive growth with universal access to basic services in 2030) halve poverty impacts compared with the pessimistic baselines. Health impacts (malaria, diarrhea, and stunting) and the effect of food prices are responsible for most of the impact. The effect of food prices is the most important factor in Sub-Saharan Africa, while health effects, natural disasters, and food prices are all important in South Asia. These results suggest that accelerated action to boost resilience is urgent, and the COVID-19 recovery packages offer opportunities to do so.
format	Working Paper
author	Jafino, Bramka Arga Walsh, Brian Rozenberg, Julie Hallegatte, Stephane
author_facet	Jafino, Bramka Arga Walsh, Brian Rozenberg, Julie Hallegatte, Stephane
author_sort	Jafino, Bramka Arga
title	Revised Estimates of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Poverty by 2030
title_short	Revised Estimates of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Poverty by 2030
title_full	Revised Estimates of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Poverty by 2030
title_fullStr	Revised Estimates of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Poverty by 2030
title_full_unstemmed	Revised Estimates of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Poverty by 2030
title_sort	revised estimates of the impact of climate change on extreme poverty by 2030
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2020
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/706751601388457990/Revised-Estimates-of-the-Impact-of-Climate-Change-on-Extreme-Poverty-by-2030 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34555
_version_	1764481152174784512

Revised Estimates of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Poverty by 2030

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