Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2020

Almost all commodity prices recovered in the third quarter of 2020 following steep declines earlier in the year. Crude oil prices have doubled since April in response to supply cuts but remain much lower than their pre-pandemic levels. Metal prices recovered rapidly due to supply disruptions and a f...

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Main Author:	World Bank Group
Format:	Serial
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2020
Subjects:	COMMODITY PRICES ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ENERGY AGRICULTURE METALS PRECIOUS METALS MINERALS PRICE SERIES PRICE FORECASTS PRICE INDICES OIL PRICES FOOD PRICES CORONAVIRUS COVID-19 PANDEMIC IMPACT OPEC ECONOMIC CRISIS
Online Access:	https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/815111603466310201/persistence-of-commodity-shocks http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34621

id	okr-10986-34621
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-346212021-05-25T10:54:41Z Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2020 World Bank Group COMMODITY PRICES ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ENERGY AGRICULTURE METALS PRECIOUS METALS MINERALS PRICE SERIES PRICE FORECASTS PRICE INDICES OIL PRICES FOOD PRICES CORONAVIRUS COVID-19 PANDEMIC IMPACT OPEC ECONOMIC CRISIS Almost all commodity prices recovered in the third quarter of 2020 following steep declines earlier in the year. Crude oil prices have doubled since April in response to supply cuts but remain much lower than their pre-pandemic levels. Metal prices recovered rapidly due to supply disruptions and a faster-than-expected pickup in China’s industrial activity. Some food prices have also risen amid production shortfalls in edible oils. Oil prices are expected to average $44/bbl in 2021, up from an estimated $41/bbl in 2020. Metal and agricultural prices are projected to see modest gains of 2 percent and 1 percent, respectively, in 2021. A Special Focus looks at the nature of shocks on 27 commodity prices during 1970-2019. It finds that highly persistent (“permanent”) and short-lived (“transitory”) shocks have contributed almost equally to commodity price variation, although with wide heterogeneity across commodities. Permanent shocks account for most of agricultural commodity price variability while transitory shocks are more relevant in industrial commodity prices. 2020-10-14T15:31:43Z 2020-10-14T15:31:43Z 2020-10-22 Serial https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/815111603466310201/persistence-of-commodity-shocks http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34621 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
topic	COMMODITY PRICES ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ENERGY AGRICULTURE METALS PRECIOUS METALS MINERALS PRICE SERIES PRICE FORECASTS PRICE INDICES OIL PRICES FOOD PRICES CORONAVIRUS COVID-19 PANDEMIC IMPACT OPEC ECONOMIC CRISIS
spellingShingle	COMMODITY PRICES ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ENERGY AGRICULTURE METALS PRECIOUS METALS MINERALS PRICE SERIES PRICE FORECASTS PRICE INDICES OIL PRICES FOOD PRICES CORONAVIRUS COVID-19 PANDEMIC IMPACT OPEC ECONOMIC CRISIS World Bank Group Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2020
description	Almost all commodity prices recovered in the third quarter of 2020 following steep declines earlier in the year. Crude oil prices have doubled since April in response to supply cuts but remain much lower than their pre-pandemic levels. Metal prices recovered rapidly due to supply disruptions and a faster-than-expected pickup in China’s industrial activity. Some food prices have also risen amid production shortfalls in edible oils. Oil prices are expected to average $44/bbl in 2021, up from an estimated $41/bbl in 2020. Metal and agricultural prices are projected to see modest gains of 2 percent and 1 percent, respectively, in 2021. A Special Focus looks at the nature of shocks on 27 commodity prices during 1970-2019. It finds that highly persistent (“permanent”) and short-lived (“transitory”) shocks have contributed almost equally to commodity price variation, although with wide heterogeneity across commodities. Permanent shocks account for most of agricultural commodity price variability while transitory shocks are more relevant in industrial commodity prices.
format	Serial
author	World Bank Group
author_facet	World Bank Group
author_sort	World Bank Group
title	Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2020
title_short	Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2020
title_full	Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2020
title_fullStr	Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2020
title_full_unstemmed	Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2020
title_sort	commodity markets outlook, october 2020
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2020
url	https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/815111603466310201/persistence-of-commodity-shocks http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34621
_version_	1764481292652511232

Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2020

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