Conflict and Poverty
This paper analyzes the relationship between poverty and conflict in the macro and regional data, including a detailed case study of Uganda. The paper relies on a large and growing literature that provides evidence on the devastating impact that co...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2020
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/519741603804458786/Conflict-and-Poverty http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34688 |
| Summary: | This paper analyzes the relationship
between poverty and conflict in the macro and regional data,
including a detailed case study of Uganda. The paper relies
on a large and growing literature that provides evidence on
the devastating impact that conflict has on health and
expectations. Based on this evidence, it develops a
statistical framework to track the cumulative long-term
impact that armed conflict has on poverty, which the paper
calls conflict debt. The data confirm that contemporaneous
conflict leads to a conflict debt which is only recovered
slowly. The empirical model is not only a good description
of the cross-country aggregate poverty time-series data, but
also regional cross-sectional data. A new aspect in the
model is that armed conflict can prevent poverty reduction
and, once it is over, allow for strong catch‐up effects as
they exist in the data. But in the most conflict-ridden
countries, repeated cycles of violence prevent poverty from
recovering. According to the most conservative estimates,
these countries and regions would have 5‐10 percentage
points lower poverty rates without their conflict debt. |
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