How Do Ex Ante Simulations Compare with Ex Post Evaluations? Evidence from the Impact of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs

How Do Ex Ante Simulations Compare with Ex Post Evaluations? Evidence from the Impact of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs

This paper compares the ex ante simulation of the impacts of conditional cash transfer programs against the ex post estimates of impacts obtained from experimental evaluations. Using data on program-eligible households in treatment areas from the s...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Leite, Phillippe, Narayan, Ambar, Skoufias, Emmanuel
Format: Policy Research Working Paper
Language:English
Published: 2012
Subjects:
AGE GROUPS
ARITHMETIC
BASELINE SURVEYS
BENEFICIARIES
CARE CENTERS
CHILD LABOR
CONTROL GROUPS
COUNTERFACTUAL
DATA COLLECTION
DATA REQUIREMENTS
DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
DROPOUT RATES
ENROLLMENT
ENROLLMENT RATE
ENROLLMENT RATES
ENROLMENT RATE
ENROLMENT RATES
ESTIMATORS
EVALUATION METHODS
EVALUATION RESULTS
EVALUATION STUDIES
EX ANTE ANALYSIS
EX POST EVALUATION
EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN
EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES
EXPERIMENTS
FORECASTS
GIRLS
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
IMPACT EVALUATION
INCOME
LANDLESS HOUSEHOLDS
METHODOLOGY
MODELING
NUTRITION
OUTCOME INDICATORS
PER CAPITA INCOME
POVERTY ALLEVIATION
POVERTY MEASURES
POVERTY REDUCTION
PRIMARY SCHOOL
PRIMARY SCHOOL AGE
PRIMARY SCHOOL STUDENTS
PRIMARY SCHOOLING
PROGRAM EFFECTS
PROGRAM EVALUATION
PROGRAM IMPACTS
PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION
PROGRAMS
QUASIEXPERIMENTAL METHODS
RELIABILITY
RESEARCH WORKING PAPERS
RESEARCHERS
RURAL AREAS
SAMPLE SIZE
SCENARIO
SCENARIOS
SCHOOL ATTENDANCE
SCHOOLING
SCHOOLS
SELECTION BIAS
SIMULATION
SIMULATIONS
SURVEY DATA
TARGETING
TECHNIQUES
TRAINING PROGRAMME
TRAINING PROGRAMS
TRANSPARENCY
TREATMENT EFFECTS
TREATMENT GROUPS
UNEMPLOYMENT
VALIDITY
WAGES
WEIGHTING
Online Access:http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20110623162735
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3469
Description
Summary:This paper compares the ex ante simulation of the impacts of conditional cash transfer programs against the ex post estimates of impacts obtained from experimental evaluations. Using data on program-eligible households in treatment areas from the same baseline surveys that are used for experimental evaluations of conditional cash transfer programs in Mexico and Ecuador, the authors use a micro-simulation model to derive ex ante estimates of the impact of the programs on enrollment rates and poverty. The estimates reveal that ex ante predictions of certain impacts of conditional cash transfer programs match up well against the benchmark estimates of ex post experimental studies. The findings seem to support the use of this model to assess the potential impact and cost efficiency of a conditional cash transfer program ex ante, in order to inform decisions about how the program would be designed.

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